ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, STRAIGHT BOURBON

FIRST RACE

WINTER WALLY might be a new route horse. That was a tough return distance in his most recent. We like the jock switch. Race flow is only average but we think this guy could get over looked on the tote. MISSING GROOM has some speed and goes third off the layoff. He even draws well. Main pace foe is drawn outside so maybe Bourdieu can float that one into the first turn. TOCCET’S CHARM is feeling good even though he is a 10YO. This warrior has hit the board 51 times in 86 starts. He actually went favored last out. He does get so save all the early ground today.

SECOND RACE

Didn’t this race come up weak for the level? LYLA LORRAINE is the fresh face that is feeling good and owns a solid local work. Race flow is fine. We don’t like this post but other than that this filly just looks solid. BERAZZLE has some speed. She just lost to a good one. She draws outside main pace foe so that and Stevens up should make for a good trip. This gal is only a 3YO so her upside is better than all. BULLICIOUS does like it here. No getting around disappointing recent turf try. The best of the rest we guess.

THIRD RACE

I AM GOING GLOBAL gets more distance today and we think that is the key. She won her lone try at this tricky distance. We like Hernandez with off the pace runners. This mare draws best. C B MISS is another that seems to like an elongated sprint. Turf breeding is so so and maybe that helps explain most recent few. The sample size is small but this barn is 1 for 1 turf to dirt. C. C. TOP was stuck on the rail last out and we think she wasn’t comfortable. New barn and jockey is noted.

FOURTH RACE

LUCK OUT likes a mile distance and has won 5 times on the dirt. A troubled break in her most recent. Second time with her new barn can only help and there is just enough pace in here to keep the front runners honest. RAVIZZONE gets back to the dirt and we think that is her better surface. Off the pace runner figures a good trip and goes third off the layoff. WEB OF DEMONS is a Diodoro recent claim that draws well. Here’s what we don’t like: zero recent works. That is very un-Diodorolike.

FIFTH RACE

NANG NOI just figures. She draws much better today. This race came up weak for the level. Yes, even this level. JAZZ NIGHT just worked well. The rail draw hurts. This filly does have some tactical speed. There isn’t much pace in this race. BIG EIGHT did try tougher in her first two starts. Works are not to our liking but we have to pick someone third you know. MISS TIZZY FIT is by a 5% debut sire. Her dam went 2-0-1-0 for 6K and this is her first foal.

SIXTH RACE

FIRE BOSS couldn’t handle allowance foes previously but that isn’t a surprise and he was 30-1 in said affair. He gets a flat mile today and is bred to love it. He even has a little speed. The Jim Brown barn is 24% with their route runners. EL SUNDAR cuts back to a flat mile and draws well. Race flow is decent but only if a few gun and there is no guarantee of that. Good race/bad race pattern hints at better today. ISTA ONE is stuck outside but still figures a decent trip. We liked that race two back.

SEVENTH RACE

STRAIGHT BOURBON bobbled at the start two back and might have needed that race anyway. We say that his most recent was too far. We know that this guy likes this dirt and Stevens does return. Here comes a great trip from the outside. DANS DIAMOND is feeling good. This is his favorite distance. Race flow is great as long as the 4 and 5 among others stay in. This barn is 23% with repeating winners. WEYAND has some speed and ends up in a good barn (44% at the meet). Speed to the inside and out could be a trouble for this fresh face.

EIGHTH RACE

RUNS SWEET draws best. This guy is an elongated sprint specialist and we love those. Just enough tactical speed to make this post even better. Good prices of late and that should carry over today. SAYS ME wants to pass runners and gets the perfect jock switch for that. Distance tab is fine at 7-2-0-1. This gelding is often a huge price. DUPLICATE COPY might be the speed. An early breather would go a long way. Good tries 2 and 4 back might bode well for today.