ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, MUSTANG POWER

FIRST RACE

TEMPIETTO closed well for the place in his first start of the season over this strip, an impressive effort considering he was at a pace disadvantage; can make the last run with a better setup, which seems likely given the presence of a couple of speeds in this field. BEST OFFER is one of those projected to be involved from the start, and he’ll be tough to reel in if he’s able to shake loose; class drop also help the cause. CANDY WALTZ is the other speed, and the main pace rival to BEST OFFER; he can also rate, and if those two were to avoid a duel and set a controlled pace they could comprise a two-speed exacta.

SECOND RACE

LEMON GROVE didn’t run well at all when last seen but she does seem to be at her best going long on the main track, and she could fall into a nice stalking trip behind a contested pace; worth a shot at a square price. RYOAN benefited from a favorable pace scenario when a close 2nd in her latest but she has to be respected off that figure and effort; steady Beyers add to the appeal. HOLIDAY LAUGHTER steps up in class after beating non-winners of two in her latest and she’s a logical threat here off that try; positional speed a plus.

THIRD RACE

FORMAL SUMMATION had been getting caught in duels in his races prior to the layoff but he could be the controlling speed at this reduced level; certainly a threat to steal it if unpressured early on. MOONLIT METEOR was a remote 2nd in his first start of the season last time but he closed with some interest despite tepid splits up front; had a legit pace excuse in his prior run. RING NECKED is a stone closer reliant on pace help, and he hasn’t gotten a lot of it of late, but given a better set up he is eligible to make the last run.

FOURTH RACE

MUSTANG POWER was wide early and made a big middle move to reach contention before flattening out, an effort that was better than it may appear on paper; should be expected to benefit from that experience. CARTERSVILLE weakened late after setting the pace in his turf bow but that was no easy spot in terms of race flow, as he had to outrun other speeds to get clear; dangerous if able to relax a bit this time around. JORRIN debuts for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who wins at a very high rate with firsters; first starter out of an unraced dam is a threat by default based on the barn’s stats.

FIFTH RACE

GENTLY NOW is by a sire, Majestic Warrior, who won his own debut and went on to win the Grade 1 Hopeful; works suggest she has some speed. GO BLACK BETTY was wide and off the pace in her debut, but that was a day when speed held a big edge over the main track at Tampa; improvement expected this afternoon. THE WEEF comes out of route races, and she’s widest, but she may be able to make the lead here, as this race lacks an obvious race flow; also down in class.

SIXTH RACE

SILENT CITIZEN drew away nicely to score in his debut at Gulfstream Park and he’s a threat to repeat here if he runs back to that 65 Beyer he posted; note the barn’s solid returns in pertinent trainer stats. IRISH VALOR’s pedigree doesn’t offer a lot of clues as to his ability to handle the turf but the barn has decent stats with horses switching to this surface; closing style may suit, too, as the pace could be quick. DIE HARD DI is out of a dam who was best sprinting on the main track but she did produce a turf winner in Dea; barn always tough with grass runners.