ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, MARNESIA BIG GIRL

FIRST RACE

MIDNIGHT DISGUISE looked super blasting her $50K rivals in her debut here Dec. 15. Not only did she win easily, earning the field’s top Beyer (66), but hot trainer Rice wheels her back in just six days (2 for last 3, 67%, when coming back in a week or sooner) and does not again risk her for a tag. DREAM FEVER also comes off an impressive maiden victory as she easily beat $40K foes here Dec. 1. Cox not only saw fit to claim her (37% off a claim) but as with the top pick it’s a great sign he brings her back in a spot where he can’t lose her via a claim. BLUSHING JUSTINE is another who impressed last time, easily beating $40K foes in her debut here Nov. 10. Her Beyer wasn’t quite as good as the what the top two registered but she’s run just once so surely she could vault forward. And as with the top two, it’s a great sign her trainer does not again risk her for a tag.

SECOND RACE

WONDERFUL LIGHT hinted at significant ability in the spring including finishing a sharp 3rd when last seen at BEL June 24, earning a big Beyer (94). That run was flattered as two he faced there came right back to win, including runner-up Mr Crow who came back to romp and was then seen in graded stakes. This colt, a half to the fine distaffer By the Moon (7 wins, $1.5 million, multiple GSW including two G1s). SWITZERLAND, a $500K son of Speightstown, might be a bit of a disappointment as he’s still a maiden with that price tag, but the colt has run a number of good races so maybe today is his day to get over the hump. PRESERVATIONIST was a super 2nd in his debut at BEL in June 2016 (92 Beyer). Trouble is, he hasn’t been seen since. At least the $485K son of Arch has worked well for this and there’s no drop by a trainer who does well off the bench. His lone sib is Madiba (3 wins, $138K, SP).

THIRD RACE

LAND MINE whipped maidens in SAR slop Sept. 3 and then in her first try vs. winners at BEL Oct. 18 was asked to turf. That didn’t go so well but she moved back to dirt here Nov. 8 and at this trip easily beat slightly lesser foes. This is apparently the footing she wants and she looks ready for this tougher task. LITERATA was no factor in her last two, yes, but those came vs. significantly tougher. Today’s class drop may snap her back to life, and note three of her eight wins have come here. UNREPENTED ran 3rd, albeit well beaten (9 lengths) sprinting at this level here Dec. 15 but Diodoro wheels her back quickly (3 for last 10 coming back in a week or sooner) and that was her first start for him off the claim and first start in almost two months. She moves to a longer trip here and that might help, too (four wins at this mile trip).

FOURTH RACE

THIRST FOR VICTORY bounced back with the drop to this level here Dec. 10, gamely winning at a mile. She shortens up here but is proven sprinting and she’s got enough tactical speed to get a good trip. It’s surely nice to see Castellano feels good enough about her to take the call. BOBBY ON FLEEK once held much promise. Things didn’t pan out but he’s worked decently for his first start in over six months for new trainer Rodriguez who can fire off the bench. The big class drop for his return helps, too. KATALOX has been plying his trade primarily at WO on synthetic and turf, but note his only dirt start, at GP in April., was a 3rd in a stakes so he handles dirt. He drops, too.

FIFTH RACE

COREY Q may have turned the corner. The daughter of Frost Giant ran on gamely to beat maidens here Nov. 16. Yes, it’s her first run vs. winners but these are all maiden winners-only, so the class

hike isn’t as big as it might otherwise be. B THREE is trending the right way and a good 2nd in a race just like this here Nov. 29 stamps her the one to beat. VOTRE COEUR has been facing tougher and on turf primarily so today’s drop and move to dirt may help. After all, her only win came on dirt.

SIXTH RACE

MARNESIA BIG GIRL dropped a bit and got back on track, easily wiring $10K foes here Nov. 29. Not only is her trainer Rice having a super meet, but she gives you a big thumbs-up with this multiple level price hike. ARE WE HAVING FUN YET beat the top pick when 2nd at BEL Oct. 4 and comes off a game wire-to-wire win in a race just like this here Nov. 16. She was claimed that day by Gullo (28% off a claim and a strong 8 for his first 20, 40%, this meet) and looms the one to beat. MADDIZASKAR stalked the pace and ran on well to be a sharp 2nd to ARE WE HAVING FUN YET in a race just like this here Nov. 16. She then found N1X foes here Dec. 16 too tough but the drop helps and it’s most encouraging a sharp guy like Toscano Jr. wheels her back to quickly.

SEVENTH RACE

SATIN SHEETS pressed the pace before giving way to end up 5th in a race like this here Nov. 16 but that was her first start in five months. She can benefit from that outing, it’s nice to see no panicky drop and she may be the prime speed here. BREE’S GOT HEART was a bit slow into stride and very wide when 5th vs. N1X foes at PRX last time out Nov. 25. She drops and that may help get her back on track. Remember, earlier this year she was good enough to be SP. PUPAREE has done all her best work on turf, yes, but she drops considerably for this dirt try and she’s certainly bred for this game. She has some versatility, too.

EIGHTH RACE

BLINDED VISION was a sharp 2nd for $50K in his debut at BEL Sept. 17. He then tried straight maidens here Nov. 25 but dueled and gave way. He moves to a much better level here and it’s nice to see no layoff since by a trainer having a super meet (8 for first 20,40%). CK DEXTER HAVEN is the one to fear having run 2nd in all three starts. Yes, this is his first try here and first start in almost two months, but he’s run well at MTH, GP and GPW so odds are he’ll handle this place. And, he takes the most significant drop in the game for this. BIG THICKET was unable to make a dent in his first three starts but all three came vs. tougher straight maidens. He drops and trainer Cox has had ample success with this class move (21%).