ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, GRAY DUDE

FIRST RACE

DEER ISLAND DIVA is descending from the maiden special ranks to where she probably belongs in this $35K dash. Her hot trainer has won at just an 8% clip with droppers to maiden-claiming company over the past five years, but this one appears to have some upside. SUGARSUGARSUGAR was competitive in maiden special weight sprints at Arlington in September. FRIENDS TALK looks next best off a distant second on the dirt at Tampa.

SECOND RACE

ITALIAN SMILE raced wide en route to running fifth in a Nov. 19 optional event at “Calderstream,” from which the winner exited to double up in an optional starter at Tampa (77 Beyer). Zayas takes over for her second race after a break. After graduating at Keeneland, NAUTIA got drilled last time out in a route at Churchill. Her trainer has solid numbers pertaining to this situation, including a 29% strike rate first-time off the claim during the past five years ($2.71 ROI). MY COTTON ROSE is a dependable candidate for the lower rungs of the exotics.

THIRD RACE

SANTIAMEN crushed state-bred maiden special opposition at first asking across town Nov. 24. He’s worked fast in the interim, and could strike again in this N1X/optional sprint that isn’t all that tough. EMPIRE POWER was softened up in an early pace duel over a sloppy strip in a recent stakes. His early foot should be more effective against these, but there’s other speed in the field. CHARGE CARD came inside from third to blow away maiden special types three weeks ago at Hawthorne.

FOURTH RACE

JALEN JOURNEY has worked quickly for a trainer who can have one ready, and Saez has the mount. The only foal to race from the mare was a G1-winning 2yo in Puerto Rico who won at first asking. SCOTUSCARE is dropping from maiden special company while changing surfaces to the dirt, probably his preferred footing. RESISTANCE JAK is by last year’s leading freshman sire, Dialed In. His stakes-placed dam produced a stakesplaced debut winner at 2.

FIFTH RACE

CONTINGENT PAYMENT was beaten in double digits after running greenly when debuting vs. $75K maidens on the green at Belmont. The son of Lemon Drop Kid is donning blinkers, and doesn’t have much to beat in this $25K one-turn mile on the dirt. TWEETER IN CHIEF never challenged against maiden special company at Saratoga and Churchill, but could be a factor against this group. BURTON is descending to a new low while retaining Saez, who’s 1 for 2 at the meet for this capable conditioner.

SIXTH RACE

SOUPER CATCH closed abruptly from six lengths back to win a six and a half-furlong maiden special going away at Churchill Nov. 26. That was his second race after a one-year layoff, and the son of Bernardini can strike again in this optional route for state-breds, with Casse’s go-to rider JR taking over. CHARLIE THE GREEK is being reunited with Jaramillo, who was aboard for his last victory here in September and is 3 for 6 at the meet for this hot barn. RUPP is going from turf/dirt following a layoff of nearly three months, and could join the fray.

SEVENTH RACE

PAYNTER’S BOY is dropping from maiden special company following a freshening, to try the turf for just the second time in his local debut. He

finished on the edges in all three of his excursions, including in his debut in a lucrative turf sprint at Kentucky Downs. HIGH RISK STRATEGY posted mixed results on the dirt for Eclipse Awardwinning trainer Chad Brown. He doesn’t possess much green in his immediate family, but Brown’s runners often take to the turf like a duck to water, regardless of pedigree. CABIN JOHN was a beaten favorite in both of his races, but was only a halflength in arrears when second in a recent $20K turf tilt across town.

EIGHTH RACE

UNLEASH HIM improved dramatically from a Beyer perspective last time when beating $6.25K NW2 stock with a 70 at GPW. The late bloomer drew okay on the outside in this $6.25K NW3 sprint, a post from where his tactical speed should come in handy. GRUBERED finished either first or second in five of his last six outings on both surfaces. He should be prominent with leading rider Saez aboard for the first time. PAIR PAIR TIE didn’t have the best of trips when fifth in his first try at this level Dec. 6.

NINTH RACE

GRAY DUDE won both of his grass starts here in the fall. Note that his last two races at this $50K level were taken off the turf and run in the slop. SIEM RIEP came up empty during a wide trip three weeks ago on the Polytrack at Turfway. His previous turf form was spotty, and he should be regarded as a wild card in his South Florida bow.

RACINGS MY GAME ran out of his skin to win a recent $12.5K conditioned claimer at GPW. Don’t expect him to duplicate that performance in this acid test.

TENTH RACE

DUQUESITA DE ALBA is by an excellent speed/ debut sire, the late Wildcat Heir, who’s produced a good 15% winners on turf. Zayas rides for Sano, a successful combo. MAKE ME PROUD is cutting back from eight to five furlongs while going to a new low, and should be in the hunt. DRINKS ON MAGGIE is tagged for the first time in her third trip postward. Use her on the bottom of intra-race wagers, along with the debuting MONTAUK MISS, who’s well-bred for the turf on the dam’s side.