ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, CARSON KAN

FIRST RACE

GENTLEMEN’S GIRL faded late last time in a twoturn Delta sprint, but could control the pace cutting back to a one-turn six furlongs here. Couple other contending sprint runs in her oneturn races, but she is a fader and hard to trust on win end. PRINCESS DELORES second in a similar spot last time and seems to have found right level, $20K MCL, after a series of MSW tries. CHARZEE BABY stands to make secondafter-layoff improvement for barn going well at the meet.

SECOND RACE

Easily the two best races of CARSON KAN’s career were turf sprints over the FG course, and yet he’s only been tried one other time in a one-turn grass race. Worked twice at FG for new barn and wouldn’t need his absolute very best to handle these. MISTAKE PRESENT, racing with blinkers removed, popped with a pretty good looking win last out second time off the claim. Granted the race was in slop and not against strong competition, but he earns a positive class rise and is very much bred for turf. Keep in mind the two grass flops came early in career and in routes. VITTORIOSO should benefit from a class drop, but while his performances haven’t been terrible, he hasn’t been finishing off his races with great energy recently.

THIRD RACE

Doesn’t feel especially negative that RED LA ROSA is down to her lowest class level here since she’s a long time between wins and wasn’t wildly competitive with better stock. Her last-start comeback run seems potentially useful, and though she’s back in trip to just 5.5 furlongs, her late run has been effective before at the distance. RUNNING DOWN DREAMS had three weeks since a narrow miss in a similar spot. Could see her running back to that race, but not really improving. TOM AND ED’S GIRL probably is favorably drawn to use her speed on the outside of a short field. Does look her two best races came, respectively, in mud and at 5f.

FOURTH RACE

Main-track-only DIAMONDS FOR LEAH might not have been at her best in slop last time and in any case was facing stronger foes than these when fading out of contention in stretch. She’ll merit consideration if this is rained off. QUEEN OF THE PALACE did get an easy trip last time but also won by a convincing two lengths in a race similar to this one. She’s pace adaptable — can press or stalk - and stands solid chance of repeat. INDYPENDENT DEPUTY appears to have peaked during June and July at Lone Star. Wonder if she ever gets all the way back to that level.

FIFTH RACE

CLASSIC BRAHMS was stuck inside and behind a slow pace in a Dec. 3 race he might’ve needed for fitness anyway. That was his first time down as low as this $5K tag, and on paper at least he’s in for a more favorable journey here. AFLEET SPRING never got close last time in a turf race not statebred-restricted, but that start could have him set up for a contending run back in an La-bred dirt race. Maiden win two back set the bar high enough to consider. GENTLE COMMITMENT seems set in the pattern of not adequately finishing off races he might win, and that’s not something you should latch onto at a short price.

SIXTH RACE

There’s a concern even a class drop won’t help CRESCENT DRIVE, who might not have a ton left to give at the moment. That said, he was probably closer to the front than ideal and still finished a close fourth (best of three here

coming out of that race) at higher class level last time. It’s a tough, deep race in any case, and worth a spread in multi-race plays. RANSACK has some turf form, but look at his dirt record effective on wet and dry main track. Burned on hot pace two back at CD but might shake loose from rail if this is rained onto dirt. MR. TICKLE had some trouble when a close fourth last time facing several of these. Potential improver drew poorly outside however.

SEVENTH RACE

Odd bit of randomness here in that COMBUSTIBLE and Clearly Super both make second start of their career following year-plus layoff and debut in the same race on 11/27/16. Super beat Combustible that day but favor COMBUSTIBLE here. He’s bred for the trip and has posted an encouraging work pattern for barn that is unusually strong with long-layoff comebackers, including a win this meet with such a horse. SUCH A TEASE looks sufficiently talented but needs to settle better than he did last time to get this 1m 70yd trip. TELETAP also seems a little suspect going beyond one mile and obviously has had his chances.

EIGHTH RACE

CLASSY ACT drew wide and caught wide on turn in fast-paced one-turn mile last out at CD. First two starts, including two-turn race at KEE, were far superior, and she’s bred like a horse that could act on turf or dirt. First blinkers & blinkers on both productive moves for Stidham barn, and LAST PLAY was beaten less than a length in a similar race last time, though definitely not convince that was the strongest turf maiden ever run at FG. STARVING ARTIST made up some late ground to be a close fourth last out in a race like this, but the final quarter in that FG turf mile was not very fast.

NINTH RACE

DANNY T up late to beat open $5K claimers (albeit in a “B” race) and one-run closer could get an even better pace setup in this La-bred $5K claiming sprint. Obviously wouldn’t expect TOO DIM to get anywhere near his best at this stage in career, but reasonable to expect enough second-after-layoff improvement that he could be very much in the win hunt here. MADE TO FIT already making third start of the meet and appears to be headed the wrong way, but would only need to hold form to factor.