ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SPANISH HOMBRE

FIRST RACE

Santa Anita opening day, first post 12 noon. FENGARI is sitting on a maiden victory in his third start. He finished an even-paced sixth in his sprint debut, then stretched to two turns and improved to finish third. The possibility of a slow pace flatters his pressing style. There really is not much speed in this field. FENGARI will be ridden by Javier Castellano, the nation’s leading money-winning jockey on turf. East Coast-based Castellano makes the most of his Santa Anita mounts, having won four of his last 15 turf routes here. EROTIC adds blinkers after falling far off the pace and rallying to fourth. BIG BUZZ will be one of the favorites as he returns to the maiden ranks after finishing ninth in a G3. He finished second both starts in fall against maidens. RIVER BOYNE finished second in his U.S. debut. Not sure if he benefits by stretch in distance to a mile and one-eighth, however.

SECOND RACE

A promising field of 2yo maidens race seven furlongs; CANDY CORNELL is the one to beat based on his sharp runner-up debut. Overlooked at 65-1, he dueled through a strong pace and finished more than two lengths clear of next-out winner All Out Blitz. Anything similar makes ‘CORNELL the one to catch. BLAME THE RIDER finished a disappointing fifth in his well-bet debut, but he had an alibi. He stumbled at the break, grabbed a quarter and did not work for three weeks afterward. However, the wellregarded colt has recovered from the issue, trained well recently, and should improve with a race under his belt. PRAETORIAN raced evenly and split the field in a decent debut that appears to have been a schooling run. First-time starter PEPE TONO has shown ability in morning works, as has AMERICAN RULE. LONGDEN may benefit by a turnback from a route to a sprint.

THIRD RACE

Runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and winner of the G1 Pacific Classic prior to that, COLLECTED should start at a short price in this mile and a sixteenth stakes. He is 4-for-4 at Santa Anita, looked good working seven furlongs here last week, and should get a cozy trip pressing the frontrunner drawn two stalls to his inside. TOP OF THE GAME ran into a roadblock at the quarter pole last out, steadied, and lost all chance. It was a toss-out race. His previous start was a N2X blowout two starts back on this track. ACCELERATE had an alibi (sore foot) for his misfire in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He has recovered, worked well, and should be forwardly placed pressing easy fractions likely to be set by aforementioned front-runner PRIME ATTRACTION. But the truth is, COLLECTED should be tough to beat at a short price.

FOURTH RACE

A promising fourth-place debut by CHICKATINI sets her up for a maiden win second time out while stretching from five furlongs to six and a half on the hill. In her debut, she lacked speed, made an extended run through turn, rallied wide into the lane, then went evenly late. She adds blinkers, benefits by the extra distance, and should improve a bunch with a race under her belt. SENSIBLE MYTH finished a creditable second in her debut, a length and a half in front of the top choice. ‘MYTH is a logical contender, possibly the favorite, second time out. MAPIT is a Tapit filly switching to grass for the first time. She is quick, and might be the one they have to catch. She could move way up on grass.

FIFTH RACE

This N1X/optional claiming sprint got easier when front-runner City of Light switched to the G1 Malibu (race 8). That leaves WELL MEASURED as possibly the one to beat. He repeatedly earns figures (Beyer) in the 90s, he drew an outside

post where he can set or press the pace. SPECTRE BOND missed by less than a length after a slow start from the rail in his California debut. He shows only one work since that race a month ago, however. RED LIGHTNING figures off his maiden win three back, although both starts against winners were rather nondescript. One last chance?

SIXTH RACE

B SQUARED can upset this G2 turf mile. His turf-sprint stakes win two starts back was arguably the best race of his career; his most recent local stakes route was a highly rated third-place finish in summer. The son of Square Eddie has an up-front style going two turns that should lead to a good trip pressing the speedster on the inside. COLONIST, fourth in the G2 Del Mar Derby in summer, reportedly has trained super for his first start since. He is reunited with Corey Nakatani, who rode him to both victories early this year. BIG SCORE is likely to start favored off three successive in-the-money finishes in graded stakes. KROY is the aforementioned front-runner drawn on the inside post.

SEVENTH RACE

UNIQUE BELLA and PARADISE WOODS meet for the first time in the G1 La Brea. The seven-furlong distance is perfect for UNIQUE BELLA, assuming she rations her speed more efficiently than the Breeders’ Cup F&M Sprint. She set a blazing pace and faded to seventh. The thing is, she does not require the lead. Expect her to rally from off the pace this time. She has won five of seven including two graded sprints, and should get a good trip behind the speedster on the rail. PARADISE WOODS, already a two-time G1 winner (routes), is the most accomplished in the field. She drew a comfortable post near the outside, and has won sprinting. However, her best races have been two-turn races in which she controlled the pace. It is uncertain if she is as effective in a fast-pace sprints as she is in a slower-pace routes. The best gamble in the field might be JUST A LITTLE HOPE, a “live” longshot in a stake with a history of upsets. Five of the last six La Brea winners paid more than $20; favorites won just two of the last 17. JUST A LITTLE HOPE, off since October, runs well fresh. This is her first stake; she will rally late at a price. Stakes winners PRINCESS KAREN, railsitter MISS SUNSET and FAYPIEN add depth to an intriguing sprint.

EIGHTH RACE

Midwest shipper C Z ROCKET and East Coaster FAVORABLE OUTCOME are tough to separate in the G1 Malibu. Both are lightly raced, “fast” on figures, and both trained exceptionally well since their most recent start. C Z ROCKET, unbeaten in three starts, arrived at Santa Anita early this month. He posted two sharp works over the track, is comfortably drawn outside, and will roll from behind. ‘ROCKET uncorked a visually impressive turn of foot last out winning a Churchill Downs one-turn mile. FAVORABLE OUTCOME returned to top form last out with a high-figure (104 Beyer) win vs. older at Aqueduct. He reportedly trained better coming out of the race than going in. He won a G2 at seven furlongs in March before he was sidelined with a bone chip; ‘OUTCOME is one of only two graded winners in the field. IRISH FREEDOM shortens to a sprint and changes riders after a pair of better-than-looked in-the-money finishes in stakes routes. Lightly raced CITY OF LIGHT looms an interesting pace play in a race otherwise light on speed. The inside post is not an issue assuming a clean break; he could be loose on the lead. PAVEL is the only other graded winner in the field; he won his debut at this seven-furlong distance.

NINTH RACE

The most probable opening-day winner is in the final race on the card. “Best bet” SPANISH HOMBRE returns to the turf course on which he ran the best race of his career, a crushing win by nearly four lengths during the fall meet. The gelding is the fastest horse in this N1X based on figures, and should get a comfortable trip positioned just off the pace. MIDNIGHT PLEASURE looms an upset candidate in just his second try on turf. He improved after being gelded in spring; he switches to a top turf rider and will roll late. LAZZAM finished in front of the top choice last out, rallying from last with a 22.63-second final quarter-mile. However, that race was on the Del Mar turf, where deep closers tend to be more effective than Santa Anita. TULE FOG stretches out and will take them as far as he can.