ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, BETYAR

FIRST RACE

COUNCIL RULES is just good. Recent figs are better than most if not all and she figures a good trip. Hello favorite. BRIANA JEAN has some speed but can stalk and that comes in handy going five furlongs from this post. Did you know that she has never missed the board on this dirt and that is for 10 starts. For some reason, she is often a decent price. MAKAHA HEAT did face better at Golden Gate before the layoff. Her most recent was better and she is a 3YO late in the year. Speed to the outside and inside could put her in a compromising position before the turn though.

SECOND RACE

BE SO LUCKY is the fresh face that has some speed. To tell the truth, no one in this race is bred to like routing. Trainer stats are good and this gelding owns a local work. Default winner. ERGO drops in class and gets to save some early ground. Hey, it’s something. A. F. INDY has a little speed and there isn’t much zip in here. The blinkers come OFF. This colt was facing better a while ago. Losing Stevens hurts a bit.

THIRD RACE

SWISS WAGER finds the easiest of spots for his local debut. He ran OK at Fresno and Pleasanton three and four back. This gelding even has some speed. Here is another default and chalky winner. MR CATY has some speed and draws the rail. Full furlong cut back dulls speed? He doesn’t seem to care for passing runners so it better not. SWISS GAME gets a much better pace scenario today. Form cycle hints at better. Those Sacramento tries 5 and 6 back are what this guy needs to get back to. Jock switch is noted.

FOURTH RACE

TRIBAL TABLE was stuck on the rail last out while making local debut. You know what? He ran well. He draws better today and most runners improve the second time they do anything with today’s example second time this dirt. TRICKS DREAM CATCH veered out at the start previously and that was while stuck in the 10 hole going a flat mile. That try two back was decent. Maybe this guy is just better at a dirt sprint. LUCKY B. N. has the best figures. New barn will eke out a small profit if this gelding wins and is claimed. Once you add in costs like shipping from Canada then you see connections in the red. We don’t see a local work either. Perhaps the good news is that horses rarely get claimed at this level.

FIFTH RACE

TRULY UNUSUAL has some speed in a race that is paceless. This mare seems to like a flat mile while her most recent was a tad better. Is this the first runner for this barn? We think they have a decent runner here and race flow couldn’t be any better. Oh, this mare doesn’t have to have the front end to run well but we would be shocked if she wasn’t up close and personal in the early running of this race. She does face the boys though which gives us some cause for pause. WHOA BOY might actually be the speed but only if connections gun. Does this outside post force a front end try or will be they be content to stalk 2 deep at the most? A nice Beyer of 59 only two back. ARGENTINE is the value. Race flow works against but he does get to save all the early ground. Tough starts 2 and 3 back.

SIXTH RACE

BETYAR has never missed the exacta on the dirt. This filly beat first time winners back in the summer of 2016. Not sure what happened last out but breaking 8th and then chasing some decent splits might have had something to do with it. The Van Winkle barn is 21% turf to dirt. Jock switch to Stevens is another plus as he is 24% with this barn. Rail draw and tactical speed should make for a great trip. RECONCILING is 1 for 1 at a flat mile on the dirt. She beat decent foes in said race (6 back). Current form is fine and the Silva barn is 22% on the stretch-out. LIVININTHELEFTLANE has some speed and might find the front end if Corbett guns. The Ortiz barn is 24% with their route runners.

SEVENTH RACE

FANTASTIC COMMAND is cross entered in the Last Chance Derby on Tuesday and that spot is tougher. Yet today’s purse is only 5K less than stakes. How much do we like this horse in said stakes spot?

He was our best bet of the day. Here is the kicker though as today’s pace might be tougher than the stakes. But these are easier foes. What to do for trainer Mike Anderson but at least he doesn’t have to talk an owner into anything as “they” are he. This gelding is bred to love routing and did break his maiden going long at Hastings. WOODIE B

AWESOME wants to pass runners and gets good race flow. We spy some decent turf tries before the break even though this gelding isn’t bred to like the grass. A good dirt spot this is. CABLE JETT might stalk the best trip if things work out just right. Works are well spaced for team Diodoro.

EIGHTH RACE

PUT YOUR PANTS ON goes for a new barn and is working fast. This gelding was facing open foes on the dirt before the break. He certainly doesn’t face a whole lot at this level. BASES LOADED does have some speed. His most recent was better and now he goes third off the layoff. NEXT BOOK ran evenly off the layoff but did get a decent Beyer speed figure. He has some tactical speed and we like that Corbett gives it another go.