ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, PENCE

FIRST RACE

GRANDPA’S ARIANNA appears to have turned the corner. She just failed to hold a big lead on dirt here Nov. 16, then had another huge lead on turf here Dec. 7 only to this time expand her advantage. She faces winners for the first time but the light appears to have gone on and she handles dirt. SHORT KAKES is the one to beat as she’s the proven commodity, coming of a 3rd and two 2nds in her last three, all sprints at this level. DARING PROSPECT was gone a few months and then gave way at BEL Oct. 12. However, she came here for her last two, both with Davis aboard, and moved forward nicely so she appears back on track.

SECOND RACE

THE CAKE IS A LIE showed talent when 3rd in her debut for $40K at BEL July 9. However, she wasn’t seen again until Oct. 26 when, at this level, she stalked the pace but hit the brakes hard. Gullo saw fit to claim her, does well off the claim and is having a super meet. He’s given her time to regroup and a return to her debut form can do the trick. DESERT AFFAIR gave way vs. more expensive routing on turf here Dec. 7 but her prior string of outings, all at this level at this type of trip, were some of her best stuff so she’s a much better fit in this situation. GYPSY JO has shown speed, though she’s wilted in all four starts. In her defense, those all came vs. tougher straight maidens so maybe today’s drop can get her headed in the right direction.

THIRD RACE

WEALTH EFFECT has shown talent, though all that came on turf, the only surface she’s known until this. The good news is she’s bred all over for dirt, being by two-time HOY and top dirt sire Curlin. That 3rd on turf last time Nov. 25 looks better when you note how slowly she began and how much she left herself to do turning for home. IN CLEVELAND had a race under her belt, moved to dirt, added blinkers and the result was a handy maiden win. She’s obviously comfortable playing this game though it’s a huge step up to face winners for the first time. WALL OF COMPASSION was well regarded enough a few months to run in a G2 at SAR (ran 3rd) and then in a G1 at BEL (ran 8th). She moved to this level here Nov. 10 and got back on track, finishing 2nd.

FOURTH RACE

COOKIE CRISP has had plenty of chances (11), yes, but note the bulk of his recent work has come on turf and ALL his work has come vs. tougher. Today’s drop and return to dirt may be just what the Dr. ordered. Trainer Rudy has been pushing the right buttons all meet, too. ALPHA TEAM has been knocking on the door and may be ready to break through. That 2nd in a race like this here Dec. 7 looks even better when you note he finished far clear of the others (7 1/4 lengths). CHAMPAGNE PAPI perked up to be 3rd in a race like this here Dec. 7, behind ALPHA TEAM in 2nd. Trouble is, he was FAR behind ALPHA TEAM (7 1/4 lengths) so he’s got some work to do to cut into, negate or overcome such a gap.

FIFTH RACE

THIRTY DAYS IN JUNE is tough to embrace based on what she’s done the past few months. However, that good 2nd at this level, her first try vs. winners, at BEL June 16 shows she fits with these. And while her four starts since were ugly suddenly there’s a bullet work here Dec. 17 - is that a sign she’s ready to snap to life. LADY RULLAH ran 2nd, albeit well beaten (7 3/4 lengths), in a race like this here Dec. 2. She then found NY-bred N1X waters here Dec. 7 far too deep but the return to this level helps. She also gets blinkers. WOUND WITH HER EYES ran 3rd behind LADY RULLAH in that aforementioned Dec. 2 race but she wasn’t THAT far behind her (2 lengths). She figures to keep coming.

SIXTH RACE

TALE OF MIST perked up at LRL in recent months with a couple 3rds vs. likely tougher N1X foes. He returns to New York with a drop for a trainer who continues her super meet. MY DAD FLOYD chased the pace and stayed on for 2nd in a race like this here Dec. 10, though he was no match for big winner Lost Iron (beaten by nine lengths).

That was still an encouraging run and his two best results have come over this track. CITY TRAVELER ran 3rd almost four lengths behind MYDADFLOYD in that aforementioned Dec. 10 race here. That was his first start off the claim by Barrera 3rd who took him for $16K two races ago, and it’s encouraging they keep him up a levels in price.

SEVENTH RACE

ETHAN HUNT’s assignment, should he choose to accept it, is to go one spot better as he was a good 3rd in a race just like this here Dec. 6. That was his first start in a couple months so he can surely benefit from that outing. Surely moving forward enough to win this is no mission impossible. CALL ME A STAR is a big threat, however, having finished 3rd just a head behind ETHAN HUNT in that same Dec. 6 race. That was a nice move forward after a couple dull outings so he appears back on his game. SUMMER BOURBON invades from FL off three straight good outings. He’s no stranger to these parts, too, as he’s run well on this track.

EIGHTH RACE

PENCE has been knocking on the door and looks ready to break through for Rice, who considers her strong meet. He was wide when 2nd to a runaway winner here just a week ago and coming back in seven days or less has been a strong move for Rice (7 for last 10, 70%). GRAND VALOUR dropped in for a $40K tag here Dec. 6 and improved to finish 3rd. Today’s further drop may be just what the Dr. ordered. He gives trainer Rice a potent one-two punch along with PENCE. LATIN LOVE BUG broke slowly in his debut here Dec. 16 but kept to his task to pass some rivals so there appears to be some talent here. With that race under his belt and a better start he could have a say.