ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, KLEEVE EDGE

FIRST RACE

ELUSIVE HARMONY might be the speed unless GASPARILLA FLOAT wants to pick a pace fight that she probably can’t win. When last seen routing on this dirt, ELUSIVE HARMONY won gate to wire at a little over 10-1. She won’t be anything like that today. When afforded an early breather, like her most recent, she is a different animal. Nice to see win rider Vargas return as he was up for said route win. GASPARILLA FLOAT can stalk a nice trip behind our top pick and at a decent price. Route tries at Thistle 4 and 5 back are solid so there is a small chance that she really likes two turns. CANDY WAR didn’t fire on the turf last out even though she is bred to like the grass. She does like this dirt and can handle the distance soooo ..... maybe she just needed that return try. She lures Centeno and that should help. TOO COOL is in our supers and early pick 5.

SECOND RACE

MOMENT IN THE WIND cuts back to a sprint but gets a decent amount of pace to chase. Do we like the inside post going this distance? Nope but it isn’t as bad as at 6 1/2 and 7 panels. This filly has only tried a dirt sprint once and it came in her debut at Delaware versus special weights. She ran evenly and beat a few home and overall that was a solid try especially for a debut. Turf tries in starts 2 and 5 were nothing to write home about but this filly isn’t bred to like the grass. She did break her maiden by daylight even if going two turns. Those money allowance foes two back are tons tougher than these. Works aren’t our favorite but she gets first Lasix and drops in class. ANTEBELLUM ran great when last seen on this dirt even if stuck on the rail going 7 furlongs and breaking last. Current form is fine and she wants to pass runners. J P’S GLADYS has some speed and draws inside the other zip. She broke her maiden on this dirt but looks better with a target now so expect a stalking trip. The 2, 5, 6, and 7 all have some speed.

THIRD RACE

R KINSLEY DOLL has tried the grass twice and run poorly both times. Turf breeding is marginal so either this filly has been off form for five months or she doesn’t like the green. Our money is on door number 2 Monty. Obviously this filly has some talent and notice that Ziadie finds a spot where he can’t lose this filly. She draws nicely. CHELLA has speed and there isn’t that much pace in this race. She can stalk just as easily but some of her better tries have come with an early breather. Perhaps those Fort Erie lines help today’s price. CATSADIVA just can’t put races together without a layoff and that is a bit worrisome. She draws inside and has never tried this dirt but could be made the favorite nonetheless. The good news is that she has some tactical speed. We think MY MERTIE may need this race to some extent.

FOURTH RACE

BONSAI BENNY is by a 24% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 22-0-0-3 and banked 10K. This is her first foal. Works are fine and this barn shows a flat bet profit with debut and debut maiden claimers. GOTTA GO GO GO is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 9-1-1-3 for 21K. Lone sibling is 14-5-2-3 and earned 53K. Everyone knows that this barn is better than average with their first time starters. Gap in works from November 15th to December 2nd is a small knock or did GPW just miss a work? RATTLESNAKEROSE made a middle move in her debut and then called it a day. Three of five sibs beat winners. Class drop probably makes her the one to beat. CASIMIRA is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-0. Of 5 sibs to race, 4 won and 2 beat winners. SUPER BEAUTIFUL is by a 7% debut sire. Her dam went 15-2-1-3 for 36K. Both sibs won and one beat

winners. FACE THE SLAYER is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 6-1-1-0 for 15K and this is her first foal. TAYLOR’S IN ORBIT is by a 1 for 11 debut sire. Her dam went 3-0-0-0. Two of four sibs won with one having beat winners. WISE SURPRISE is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 11-1-2-1 for 18K and this is her first foal. FIFTH RACE

KLEEVE EDGE is the value and our best bet of the day (15-1 morning line). We love the fact that connections wanted a turf route in her debut and that she ran evenly in said race. She is bred to love the grass and two turns. Most runners improve the second time they do anything. Trainer stats are very good across the board. This filly ran inside in her debut and that is a spot that most youngsters often dislike. It is just another reason to expect improvement today. SENTRY is the obvious pick. NYRA and Keeneland foes were top shelf. His turf breeding is outstanding. Layoff lines are a concern and this gelding has never tried this grass (this course is one of the best in the nation though). BIG BAD ZIN ran OK just before the layoff. Local works are well spaced as if he has settled in nicely here. KINGDOM KEPT could find the front end.

SIXTH RACE

MAYBEYESMAYBENO is by a 12% debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in lone turf try. Of 3 sibs to try the grass, 2 won with the other hitting the board. This gelding did improve in his third start went trying a route of ground for the first time. He draws nicely for this and is bred to like the green (326 grass Tomlinson). WHISTLE ME HOME is by a 1 for 4 debut turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first grass foal. This colt ran evenly in his debut going short on the dirt and could appreciate the move to the grass. SEMINOLE CHARLIE is by a 0 for 3 debut turf sire. His dam never tried the grass. All 3 sibs won on the weeds including a multiple winner. Two of those those three sibs won their grass debuts. This gelding figures to show some speed on the stretch-out and could prove troublesome to run down if able to get an early breather. D TRAIN is by a 3% debut sire and a 3% debut turf sire. His dam went 18-1-2-2 for 16K (10-0-1-2 on the sod for 6K). This is her first foal. FIRST AND GOAL is by a 13% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the grass. Two sibs failed to hit the board on the weeds. LET ME LOOSE is by a 13% debut sire and a 3% debut turf sire. His dam went 15-4-1-3 for 18K (1-0-0-0 on the turf). Lone sib is 4-0-1-0 for 3K and never tried the sod. DINING IN will probably go favored.

SEVENTH RACE

MALBEC looks better if you toss those Woodbine tries 2 and 5 back. Some horses just don’t like a synth surface. That was a solid try previously when trying this dirt for the first time. We like that Centeno stays put and that this gelding draws outside again. KITCHEN POLICE is working well. He has hit the board on this dirt in 6 of 7 starts. Fresh speed is often the best speed and this horse figures a good price. SHIROTA is a hard trier that goes second time this dirt. He didn’t get a breather last out yet held on well. He gets away from the rail while drawing the 2 hole today.

EIGHTH RACE

ALINEA beat over half the field home only two back at Keeneland and those were some tough special weights. Nothing wrong with her local debut previously and we say she improves off it. She is bred to love the grass and this barn shows a flat bet profit on the green. INTERROGATION had some trouble in her debut but figured to have learned something from it. She ran evenly in her second start before spitting the bit going much further. She went favored in that race. Her turf breeding is very good and she finds a good spot today. GUESS WHAT ran great in her lone turf try and it came two back. Hers might be the best speed. The Delacour barn is 33% dirt to turf.

NINTH RACE

SPURS N BOWS is a solid double nickel claimer trying restricted foes off the layoff. Connections are in the black with a win and a claim. This gelding draws outside and has some speed which makes for a nice combo. MY CHARMING CLYDE is a 10YO making his third start in his current form cycle. That’s a big plus as these older horse often need a race or two to show their best. Added half furlong is even better and this horse if proven on this dirt at 19-3-6-4. BEAR’S PROFIT has some tactical speed which helps with his rail draw. There just isn’t much pace in this race.

TENTH RACE

GLORY RIDE broke poorly in her debut but still beat a few home. Her second start which came locally was much better. She goes second time Lasix which is often better for the girls. Her turf breeding is solid. NOTHING BUT LOVE hopped at the start in her debut but we actually like that. We like that connections wanted a turf route in her debut and find a similar spot for her second start even if against easier. TWO STEPPIN BUCKY is by a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam went 17-5-7-1 for 154K on the grass. One of two sibs won on the grass (1 for