ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, KRISSYS MANICURE

FIRST RACE

A Super High Five carryover of $28,818 is up for grabs in this maiden-20 sprint, a race in which CHRISISCOOKIN looks solid. The gelding has run well against better, figures for a forwardly placed trip, and is dropping to the bottom class level for the first time in his eighth career start. Potential standout. INSUBORDINATION also drops to the basement for the first time, and he also has speed. It is unclear if the 10-start maiden is as effective on dirt as on turf, but he should be mixing it up early. Lightly raced MAJORDOMO split the field last out while improving significantly over his debut. One more forward move puts him in the hunt. AM I BLUE and THANKFUL EVERY DAY add speed to the lineup.

SECOND RACE

A tepid pace scenario benefits KRISSYS MANICURE in this starter allowance for 2yo fillies. The last-out maiden winner figures for a front-running/ pace-pressing trip in her first start since a solid win maiden-50 win last out at Del Mar. She also ran well on the Santa Anita track in fall, and posted solid works recently over this slow track. LADY PHYLLIS finished a respectable third in her California debut, missing by a length in a turf mile while wide most of the trip. She adds blinkers, and shortens to a dirt sprint. Her first two starts in Florida were sprints in which she had a win and a second. KISS OF DAHPESPE has enough speed to keep the top choice company. ‘DAHPESPE extended her margin late in her winning debut, but it was partly an illusion because the pace completely collapsed. The filly she beat did return to win by more than three lengths, while improving her Beyer 10 points. MIS VIOLA returns from a freshening of nearly three months. Her maiden win in July puts her in the hunt.

THIRD RACE

The pick six begins with a traditional pick six carryover of $95,855. CASCADE ROCK can post a minor upset in this maiden turf sprint. Both recent starts in turf routes were better than the two-three finish positions suggest. Both races unfolded at a fast pace, ‘ROCK pressed and/or moved into the fast pace both times, then lost his punch. He benefits by a distance cutback. He improved since three tries on this course in spring, drew an outside post and figures for a pressing trip. OISEAU DE GUERRE could go favored based on his local debut two months ago on this course. He took up at the start, lost position, rallied into contention and finished second by a half-length. The race produced three next-out winners. With a clean start this time, ‘DE GUERRE should be right there. SHAKY ALIBI exits the same turf mile as the top choice, and has a similar running style. ‘ALIBI may benefit by the cutback in distance, though the inside post presents a challenge. CONQUEST SMARTEE finished in the money three starts on the hill in spring; MESUT broke slowly and finished second in his second start. He is getting better. Lots of contenders in this maiden turf sprint.

FOURTH RACE

An abundance of speed in this field can set up the closing rally of POPULAR KID. He improved since he was claimed in spring and gelded in summer; his closing style suits the pace scenario. His most recent start at Santa Anita during the fall meet was a runner-up finish that might be enough to handle this Cal-bred allowance. DESERT GENERAL stretches back out following a solid runner-up finish in a sprint. He has enough speed to establish position from the outside post and could tuck into a cozy trip positioned right behind the pace. LOVELY ANZI returns to dirt following a series of improved effort since changing trainers. If he reproduces his grass form on the main track, he will be right there. FIRE TO THE WIRE and LYMEBYRD will be forwardly placed.

FIFTH RACE

PUBILIUS SYRUS was no match for budding turf star Analyze It in a G3 last out, but ‘SYRUS did finish clear of third while producing yet another in a string of improving efforts. A similar performance gets him the money. However, this is a strange race due to a conspicuous lack of speed. INSCOM had a compromising trip last out finishing fifth in the same race the top choice exits. He had minor trouble early, lost position, lost a front shoe,

and then just ran around the course. He is a better colt than that race suggests, and he did show tactical speed two previous turf starts. Expect him to be closer to the front this time. AYACARA finished second in a synthetic-surface stakes race at Golden Gate last out; this is his first on grass. He was sired by Violence, whose progeny have won 20 percent of their starts on turf according to Daily Racing Form data.

SIXTH RACE

UNO TROUBLE MAKER virtually split the field in an okay career debut vs. special-weight maidens; the home-bred filly drops to maiden-30 for her second start, retains streaking apprentice rider Evin Roman and looms the one to beat on the drop. WILD EDIE improved a ton second out, runner-up while finishing more than six lengths clear of third. She is quick, and has a shot to steal it. BRAGGING RIGHTS broke slowly and finished a modest third in her debut. She was claimed for $50k by John Sadler, and drops immediately to $30k. The claim-and-drop move does not exactly inspire confidence, but Sadler has used the move with success in the past (Edwards Going Left). Also, the past five years Sadler is 9-for-35 with maidens first off the claim. That move produced a flat-bet profit ($3.97 for each $2 win bet).

SEVENTH RACE

BAD JU JU, a seven-time winner including four at this N1X level or higher, is the one to beat. She earned more than $138k since she was claimed for $40k late last year. The professional mare drops from state-bred stakes to entry-level allowance while running for the optional claim tag, The “class” of the field should get pace to flatter her rally. MEET AND GREET followed her blowout maiden victory with another score against Calbred allowance foes. The filly she beat returned to win her next start. ‘GREET is 2-for-2, and might be good enough to handle the hike to open company.

DALSAROS has not been seen since an 11-length route romp on this track in March. It is unclear if she can be as effective short, but she obviously has above-average ability. KENTAN ROAD looks like the speed of the field. She set a fast pace last time winning a maiden race in the fourth start of her career. Come and catch her.

EIGHTH RACE

In the money three straight at this starter-allowance level, RED KING appears to be sitting on a win. Perhaps the only significant knock on the deep-closing filly is that she lost as the favorite three of her last four starts. Still seems like an obvious choice to win rallying from behind. UBER STAR broke slowly, raced wide and misfired last out. That was more than two months ago. The gelding’s runner-up finish two starts back vs. similar makes him a contender. BACOLI finished only a length behind the top choice last out. Firsttime Corey Nakatani a plus. GOSOFAR looms the one to catch. On paper, he is lone speed.