ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, MAGIC MANGUS

FIRST RACE

MAGIC MANGUS should be nicely set up in the opener, as there is a fair amount of speed and he’ll be looking to close ground late; he was in an exceptionally fast race two back for the class level and he did well to rally for the place last time in a race that didn’t feature as much speed as this one does. NO PHONE JOE will likely be involved from the start; he was off the board in his local bow last time but he was unable to get to the lead there, and subsequently faded. OPPIDUM is another with speed; should once again be a factor from the bell.

SECOND RACE

CANDY WALTZ may be the clear speed in this route, which is otherwise light on early zip; he was forced to settle for the show last time out as the odds-on favorite but he endured a tough trip, dueling for the start, and an easier set up seems likely today. BOURBON HAPPENS is the main threat to the favorite and top pick, making his first start off the claim for a barn with solid numbers with fresh faces; has the speed to get first run on the expected pacesetter. SANDIA CREST was behind a few of these last time but was against the race flow; doesn’t figure to get much pace help here either but he is better than he showed in that latest run.

THIRD RACE

ADIOS CAT usually sprints, and she was off the board in her lone route try over this track, but that was a much better field than she meets here; especially dangerous if she gets an aggressive ride in the opening stages, as the pace scenario for this one is relatively unclear, and she could get clear if pushed some early on. CANDY WAR is the one to beat, coming off an easy win against lesser; resulting Beyer makes her an easy horse to like, as does the barn’s strong record with last-out winners (43%). ROCK AROUND THE DOCK goes two turns off an apparent prep in her first start in a few months and she figures to be prominent from the start, an edge if the pace is in fact controlled.

FOURTH RACE

JERMYN STREET meets better after dismantling claiming non-winners of three in her most recent but that 75 Beyer came up strong, as par for the class, surface and distance is 67; eligible to repeat, especially given another ideal ride from the resurgent Jose Ferrer. BELIEVE INDEED was behind a couple of these same runners two back but that was a race featuring little speed and won on the front end by the loose pacesetter; returned to run a strong race for the show in his latest, and he could be the main threat in the lane. DESERT FOLLY just missed in a solid effort in her latest, and though she was well off the board in her prior try she was actually moving well in the back half of the field late in the game.

FIFTH RACE

FIRST SHOWING is the best guess in a wide-open bottom-level maiden claimer, as she has at least shown that she’s willing and able to pass horses in the lane, as she proved in that narrow loss at Finger Lakes three back; picks up the red-hot Antonio Gallardo. DEFERENCE has enough speed to work out a stalking trip, and that could mean she gets first run on the speeds; most recent dirt try, in August at Monmouth, was her best effort on the main track. TIZ HIGHLIGHT flashed speed before tiring in her latest but that was her best race yet in three career starts.

SIXTH RACE

APRIL FIFTEENTH was off the board in her career debut last time but that wasn’t that bad of an effort, as she did make a nice middle move down

the backstretch before she flattened out late; expecting her to benefit from that experience in her second career start. NEVISIAN SPIRIT moves to the turf and also moves to the barn of trainer Arnaud Delacour, and those two faces make her a threat by default; not expecting to get the 9/2 ML price if connections believe she is expected to improve on the green but if the money does show she’s obviously very live. PROSPECTIVE LADY comes off dirt sprints but her dam won her own grass bow and she produced a minor turf winner.

SEVENTH RACE

TIZ SAMURAI wilted after setting the pace on a loose early lead last time but that running line is a bit misleading, as he stumbled at the start and had to work hard to get clear from his wide post, with speed to his inside; should be able to dictate the tempo more easily this time around. SIDE POCKET is the main pace foe as he moves to the rail; he comes out of the same race as the top pick and once again figures to be stalking that runner before making his run on the turn. EVAN’S CALLING beat the top pair in that last run but the careerbest Beyer he posted was with the aid of the race flow, which favored closers, as evidenced by the bold “C” in his running line; may not get the same kind of set up here, and that could make it tough for him to run back to that Beyer.

EIGHTH RACE

WAGON BOSS settled for the show behind Take that to the bank when they met last time but the former had a tactical advantage given his forward position while the latter had to try to overcome the race flow; WAGON BOSS can turn the tables today given a quicker, contested pace up front. PERFECT TAY went down as the 6/5 favorite in his latest despite sitting a perfect trip behind the speeds; Beyers make him the one to beat here, as the figure he posted two back has to be respected. TAKE THAT TO THE BANK benefited from favorable early position in that last win, which helped him post a career-best figure, and he’ll be a threat here with that same type of trip.

NINTH RACE

NOM DE GUERRE was well bet for his debut, and while he weakened late he did flash some speed; today he makes his first start off the claim for a barn which does well with same, as well as with maiden claimers in general. SEBAS RANGER is the one to beat on the strength of that last Beyer he posted at Gulfstream Park; no major knocks outside of the expected price, which promises to be short. VINEYARD HARBOUR has high speed and now drops in class to the lowest level he’s been at yet; certainly one to consider but he will take some money here and the barn has struggled of late.

TENTH RACE

KEG STAND doesn’t boast a lot of pedigree power — the dam was off the board in all five starts and her two starters to date have combined to post a 1-for-11 record — but she has shown some life in her works and Eddie Kenneally does well in all pertinent trainer categories; gets Lasix and Gallardo for her first start. APPRECIATE is clearly a top contender off the debut, when a neck shy at Gulfstream; barn always tough here, especially on the turf, with Clemente likely to start winning races in bunches after getting off to a slow start at the meet. QUEEN OF THE KINGDOM is another contender by default based on her trainer, as Delacour is exceptional with maiden turfers; dam lost her only grass try but won the Astoria and produced turf stakes winner Artest.