ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, VAN HAGAR

FIRST RACE

JAZZ NIGHT ran OK in his local debut previously even though he was stuck on the rail and broke 8th of 10 runners. Second time this dirt is a plus but more so today’s stretch-out. This filly is bred to like routing more than the rest of these. Today, the rail draw is an advantage as is her even running style. CAROLINA EXPRESS tried stakes foes when last seen routing so toss that try three back. Her dirt Beyer top came going a flat mile at Retama. A little middle move last out hints at a better try today. KOLOCHA got a 42 Beyer going a flat mile three back. That Fresno mile try five back was decent also. Is this 4YO with 14 losses on her resume the one to beat?

SECOND RACE

AMY JEAN is feeling good and just ran a Beyer top. She did so on the turf but what if turf isn’t her best surface? Her grass breeding is just blah. Or maybe she is a new route horse. We like both those angles along with a decent price. LUCY LOVES NANA is the value. She won her lone local dirt try. She seems to like a flat mile at 3-2-0-1. Her recent turf try resulted in a OK fig of 62. What if this mare is just better on the dirt? LYLA LORRAINE is feeling good and goes second time this dirt. Yet to try a flat mile though and her route breeding is only OK.

THIRD RACE

VAN HAGAR just loves a route of ground. Good tries 2, 4, and 6 back prove our point. His return try came at an elongated sprint distance and this guy pushed the pace for a half mile and then called it a day. The perfect prep for today’s stretchout. The Chad Story barn is 36% with their route runners. All trainer stats show a flat bet profit. COLONEL GOTHAM might find the front end from the 2 hole. His dam went 6-1-1-2 when routing and earned 22K doing so. Lone sib is 0 for 2 routing. Current form is just fine and this gelding even has some upside. It wasn’t easy separating our top two here. EL SUNDAR can get the distance and is better of late. THE GREAT LEBOWSKI is due for a better try at a huge price sooner than later.

FOURTH RACE

FORESTSTONE just ran better and does have some back class. She doesn’t get much pace to chase today but that was the case in her most recent and she won that. We just think that she isn’t done improving. WONDER ABOUT LOLA goes second off the layoff and gets an extra half furlong to work with today. She did beat better at Cby while local tab is decent. FOURTH IN COMMAND has tactical speed in a race without much pace. She should get the jump on most of these at the least. She seems more than capable at six furlongs. The outside two could help the early pace or they could sit off the pace just as easily.

FIFTH RACE

PALLASGREEN is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 11-3-2-1 for 57K (no routing). Lone sib is 4-1-0-1 for 22K (won debut, no routing). Tons of works for this filly and the last three have all been at 5 furlongs. She doesn’t face a ton and we really think she will like two turns. The hot Phil Hall barn is 28% with his route runners. The not so good news is that he is 0 for 15 with debut runners. Hey, maybe that helps today’s price. J/T is 43% with Stevens/Hall. MARYMOOR PARK has some tactical speed on the stretch-out and puts the blinkers ON. A Beyer top only two back. TOMORROW’S MINE just lost as the big chalk and then took some time off. At least her last few were around two turns even if on the grass. It seems Esquilin is riding better of late.

SIXTH RACE

DANCING ZAPPER recorded Beyers of 57 and 54 just 2 and 3 back. Maybe 8 1/2 furlongs was a bit far last out or maybe he just bounced third off the layoff. New barn is 2 for 3 off the claim. This horse has some speed and that is going to help with this outside post. ONE LAST HIT just won gate to wire and now draws inside versus first time winners. If he cleared off again .... we wouldn’t be shocked. He seems like a hard trying type. MADIKWE just ran better. Maybe the time off is paying off. MR. WIGGLE could show some speed.