ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, COTTON CANDY CUTIE

FIRST RACE

MR. DOUGIE FRESH comes into this off two strong outings, a win here Nov. 11 and a 2nd at this level here Dec. 30. Yes, both came on turf, but note a dirt win on his ledger so the footing switch shouldn’t be an issue. That Dec. 3 2nd looks even better when you note two he beat that day came right back to win. That said, he did only beat today’s rival HEMBREE by a head so there’s no margin for error. That rival likewise comes here in good form with six straight in-the-tri finishes (though none was a win) and all on turf. The surface switch for him, however, is a little more perplexing as he’s run just twice on dirt, finishing 5th in each. So he’s unproven on this footing, unlike the top pick. BRIANBAKESCOOKIES comes off a game win on this track at this trip Dec. 9. That did come vs. restricted claimers so he’s up in class, and note the top two beat him easily when they met Dec. 3.

SECOND RACE

SOLITARY GEM didn’t do much in her first two starts, but both were vs. tougher straight maidens. She dropped in for a $50K tag here Dec. 14 and fared much better, finishing 3rd. She drops another notch and gets blinkers. All four sibs are winners including Easy Comparison (4 wins, $146K, SP) and Thirteenth Avenue (4 wins, $122K). COCKTAIL COUNTESS set a pressured pace before fading to 5th here Dec. 8, but not only did she duel, she was facing straight maidens. Today’s drop may be key for a trainer coming off a big year. LILLARD HALL took a big step forward in her third start, finishing 2nd here Dec. 1. She ended up far clear of her rivals (6 1/4 lengths) and the gal she easily beat back into 3rd (Paranoia) came right back to win. Her two sibs to race are Silver Stacker (3 wins, $37K) and Southern Wild (1 win, $84K).

THIRD RACE

COTTON CANDY CUTIE pressed the issue before finishing 2nd to a clear winner in a race similar to this here Nov. 8. That run looks even better when you note the 1st, 3rd and 4th finishers all came right back to win - 3rd finisher Frost Wise came back to win by 16 1/4 lengths and loomed an overwhelming favorite in Thursday’s Bay Ridge Stakes. It’s a longer trip for this mare, but it’s one she’s handled (2nd in her only prior 9f try). CONNIE A moves back to dirt after failing to be a factor on turf here Dec. 3. Her speed can have her prominent from the start. UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE ran 3rd to the aforementioned Frost Wise, though she was no threat to that gal, beaten by 16 3/4 lengths. Still, that was a fourth good run in her last five starts so she’s in good form. Track condition may dictate your final assessment - all 3 career wins came on wet tracks.

FOURTH RACE

AFLEET MARTINI was dull Nov. 4 at WO but that run came on synthetic (his first time) and after nearly eight months off. He then responded with a sharp 2nd at FL Nov. 24. He’s been given some time since, has worked steadily, moves back in for a tag and to a track he’s handled well. (2-1-1-0). WAR EAGLE’S RETURN was no factor when 6th at this level here Nov. 18 but was claimed by Englehart, was stepped up to $20K here Dec. 17 and rebounded to be a sharp 3rd. He looks back on track and the slight drop may be key. BLUEGRASS SINGER has speed. He shortens up and drops.

FIFTH RACE

BRIMSTONE has been knocking on the door in recent months and may be ready to break through. He comes off three solid efforts here vs. what may have been tougher foes. He’s back in for a tag and it’s the same price for which he was claimed three months ago. SOL THE FREUD got a summer vacation and since returning in September is trending the right way. He’s a proven good fit at this level and it may be his time in the spotlight. GLOBAL POSITIONING posted two straight wins before finishing 4th as the favorite at this level here Nov. 30. Adsit saw fit to claim him and two bullet works since encourage.

Kimmel appears to hold a strong hand with the entry of IMPAZIBLE CREEK and IMPAZIBLE WOMAN. With Arroyo named as rider on both only one will go but either could get the job done. The former has been freshened since dueling and running 5th vs. tougher straight maidens at BEL Oct. 9. The drop could prove key. ‘WOMAN, meanwhile, has more experience (eight races vs. two for her entrymate) but has run well a number of times. She has speed and versatility and has worked well for this. DESERT AFFAIR has had lots of chances (18) but before pooh-poohing her because of that note five 2nds and eight 3rds, so she’s run a number of good races. That includes a nice 3rd in her most recent outing here Dec. 29. GOLDTOWN was no factor in her first two starts but both came vs. tougher straight maidens. The $300,000 daughter of Speightstown hasn’t run since April but trainer Casse is strong off the bench and there’s an important class drop.

SEVENTH RACE

MY ROXY GIRL appears to have turned the corner. After a number of close calls to start her career she beat maidens here Nov. 24 and then blasted $50K claimers by 8 1/2 lengths here Dec. 14. She’s worked well since and it’s a good sign that while Friedman risked her for a tag in her last few he takes no such risk with her today. ACQUAINTED came out firing to win her debut here Dec. 14 in impressive fashion. It’s first time vs. winners here, a big hurdle, but she’s obviously got speed and ability. GYPSY JANIE has been freshened since beating winners at CD Nov. 16 and trainer Ward is strong off the bench. It’s her first time here but she won on ELP dirt and CD dirt so odds are she’ll handle this place.

EIGHTH RACE

QUEZON and ABSATOOTLY continue their rivalry here with the former getting the call after her game win in the Garland o’ Roses here Dec. 9. She has the versatility to give her rider options. ABSATOOTLY ran 3rd in the Garland o’ Roses but won the Iroquois over the top pick Oct. 21 and like that rival was making her first start in a couple months in the Garland o’ Roses. She has speed and versatility and a super work Dec. 30 stamps her ready. HOLIDAY DISGUISE showed much promise last spring, rattling off three straight wins. She hasn’t been seen since (over seven months) which is a tad worrisome, but Rice is strong off the bench and it’s encouraging she picked a tough spot like this for her return.

NINTH RACE

VELVET TRINNI tried stakes foes last time and wasn’t disgraced, finishing 5th after setting the pace. She drops back in vs. maidens here and that may be just what the Dr. ordered. A bullet work here Dec. 30 encourages. ORCHID PARTY dueled before finishing 4th in her $50K debut here Nov. 24. Rodriguez saw fit to claim her (30% off a claim) and it’s most encouraging he brings her back without a tag attached. SCORPION BOWL had an odd trip in her debut here Nov. 18, dueling early, dropping back but then coming on a bit again to get 4th. Rice has strong 2nd-time-out numbers (24%).