ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, THE GREAT SAMURAI

FIRST RACE

The light has apparently gone on for LOOSE. She was claimed by Rudy after a couple not-so-hot outings but came back with blinkers at BEL Sept. 28 and blasted maidens, then gamely beat $25K N2L foes here Nov. 15. She’s been given a similar type of layoff and the price hike is most encouraging. B THREE has continued to improve since being claimed last summer, topped off by a big win over $16K N2L foes here Dec. 21. The fact DiPrima now more than doubles her in value is a great sign. SPECIAL RISK comes here in peak form having won two straight over this track and at this trip so she’s one of the ones.

SECOND RACE

PICO CHICK appears to hold the aces as she comes here off a 1st, 2nd and 2nd. She was only narrowly beaten by a neck when 2nd here last time out Dec. 7 vs. $25K foes and was claimed by Terranova. That’s all well and good, but it’s a bit worrisome that off the claim her value is slashed in half. Hey, they don’t give anything away out here. MADDIZASKAR was a strong 2nd for $16K here Nov. 16 before finding N1X waters too deep here Dec. 16. She’s back to a better level and that may get her back on track. PERINA’S PRIDE was trending the right way in November with a couple 3rds. She was claimed by Diodoro for $10K and has been freshened since, and it’s a good sign he brings her back up in price despite the fact she’s out of ‘jail’.

THIRD RACE

WARRIOR OF LIGHT ran quite nicely in her debut here Dec. 3, stalking the pace, looming a threat turning for home before ending up 2nd, well beaten by a very promising filly (Dream Pauline). She still finished well clear of 3rd and looks primed to get her diploma. It’s no shock she’s good as all four sibs are winners including By the Moon (7 wins, $1.5 million, 5 SWs including 2 G1s and 3 G3s, 8 SPs including 4 G1s and 2 G2s). SIERRA ALEONE debuts with some smart works for Casse who does well first time out. She’s by Gemologist whose runners do well first time out (over 11%). LEZENDARY showed talent in her first two stars (3rd, 2nd) before fading to 5th as the 3-2 favorite in that same Dec. 3 race in which the top pick ran 2nd. She adds blinkers and can certainly bounce back. She’s kin to Margaret Reay (1 win, $133K, 2 SPs including a G3).

FOURTH RACE

The top two here are going in different directions class-wise. MARRIAGE FEVER may be a timely claim for Persaud, though it’s not often you say that about a 9yo. This gelding posted two not-sohot outings in the fall but dropped for the $10K level and gamely prevailed. Not did Persaud see fit to claim him (3 for last 12, 25%, off a claim) but he gives the veteran a multiple-level price hike, which is most encouraging. This guy has been a pro a long time - you don’t win 12 times by accident. TIZNOBLE is surely the one to beat, freshened since three straight 2nds all vs. much more expensive. Of course, therein lies the concern they claimed him for $32K Nov. 15, he was a sharp 2nd for $40K here Nov. 22 but now returns for less than half that. As noted earlier on the card, they don’t give anything away out here. TWO DOWN ONE TO GO posted two smart wins here in November. He then found open $32K foes too much to handle here Dec. 9 but Schosberg claimed him and moves him to what may be a better level.

FIFTH RACE

VIP NATION stalked and finished a game 3rd, beaten just a half-length, for $50K when taking an outside run here Dec. 9. She was then inside, had a troubled start and was no factor (7th) for $50K here Dec. 17. She drops a notch, which can’t hurt, but maybe most importantly goes inside to

outside. There are two solid works since, too. Her lone sib is Awesome Mil (2 wins, $14K). DESERT

JAZZ stalked the pace in that same Dec. 9 race as the top pick and loomed a big threat into the lane before flattening out to finish 4th, 5 1/4 lengths behind ‘NATION. That was just his debut so she likely needed the race, and a wide trip didn’t help. She’s worked well since. All seven sibs to race are winners including Jet Set Cat (7 wins, $157K).

STATUS ASTHMATICUS set a pressured pace in that same Dec. 9 race as the top two before fading to 5th. Not only did she take pressure, it was her debut so she can improve.

SIXTH RACE

DRIVEN WEST has considerable speed so he figures in the hunt from the start. He’s been freshened and drops and that combination may be just what the Dr. ordered as he’s run well before off this type of layoff. Trainer Servis holds a strong had as he not only send out ‘WEST, but MR. EURO could have a say. He was wide and no factor when 5th at this level here Dec. 9 but Servis claimed him and has stupendous off-the-claim numbers (39%). It’s also nice to see no drop in price despite the fact this runner is out of ‘jail’. HONOR AND PLEASURE was freshened a couple months last summer/fall and that appeared to help as he’s come back with two nice 2nds, the last at this level here Dec. 23.

SEVENTH RACE

THE GREAT SAMURAI may have turned the corner. He did some good work in the late summer/early fall but after a freshening came back to dominate $16K N2L foes here Dec. 22, winning a laugher. Not only does that mean he comes here sharp, but it’s a great sign that while Toscano Jr. risked him for a tag that day he takes no such risk with him this time. DUBLINTHEPLEASURE has been knocking on the door and comes off a decent 3rd in a 7f race at this level here Dec. 17. That was his first try over this track so he could move forward. J J’S

DREAMING was freshened, came back on dirt and looked like a new horse here Dec. 15, whipping maidens at this trip while earning a heady Beyer (78) which stacks up very well with these.

EIGHTH RACE

ENGLISH SOUL has been monstrous in her only two main-track starts, breaking her maiden by 14 1/4 lengths at BEL Oct. 9 and romping by 7 over some of these in an NY-bred optional claimer here Nov. 22. With her speed and the rail she figures tough. The one question is whether she can be as effective on dry land as both main-track starts came on wet tracks. PURELY LUCKY ran 2nd in that same Nov. 22 races, beaten 7 lengths by ‘SOUL. That was her first try on dirt so she can improve and if the top pick isn’t as effective on dry land could very well cut into, negate or even overcome that gap. MIDNIGHT DISGUISE won her first two starts in handy fashion and merits respect. Her two Beyers are a bit behind what ‘SOUL has done but she’s run just the two times so she could certainly move forward.

NINTH RACE

CLASSY CARA showed a bit of speed in her first two starts, though she hit the brakes in each. She can benefit from that experience and surely from today’s slight drop. She also gets blinkers for the first time and there’s evidence of a potential wakeup for her with that super bullet 4f work at BEL Jan. 3 (:47B, best of 73 that day). ORCHID PARTY showed speed in her $50K debut here Nov. 24 but that got her into a duel and she paid the price, fading to 4th. That was still an encouraging first run and Rodriguez saw fit to claim her (30% off a claim). CATHY NAZ looks headed the right way and now takes the most important drop in the game (straight maiden to maiden claiming), a move with which Bond has had success (2 for last 4, 50%). 110th St. and Rockaway Blvd. Ozone Park, NY 11417 (718) 641-4700 NYRA Scratch Line: (866) 697-2238 Main track: One and one-eighth miles, oval Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,155.5 feet Inner turf: Seven Furlongs, 43 feet, oval Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,174.9 feet Turf course: One mile, oval

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Grand Slam, Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6 wagering (carryover pools): 24% ■ Pick 5 wagering: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering (non-carryover pools): 15%