ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, GLORY TO KITTEN

FIRST RACE

Special holiday card starts at noon Eastern with the likelihood of a fast track and firm turf and OUR GIRL ABBY apt to show a liking for the Gulf turf. Maker-trained filly has taken some regrouping since back-to-back dirt sprints at Keeneland and figures to be close enough when tracking from a favorable spot under Jose Ortiz; those 2 turf priors both came vs. tough MSW fillies; fits this spot. ROSES IN THE SOUTH need only replicate her Gulf West farewell (82 BSF) to prove a tough catch here. MAKE ME PROUD is 1 for 1 over the local lawn and also comes well-drawn with leading jock Saez to ride.

SECOND RACE

Blinkers and a new purview are on order for PAYNTER’S BOY in trying to coax the max ability out of a 3yo colt who was pretty well-regarded back in Ky.; new connections (Dibona) been deadly with first claims (6 for last 12), and they might well have found the right spot on this turf-to-dirt turnback, especially given the favorable outer post and J.Ortiz. DOWNRANGE debuts for West Point and Ralph with a long series of drills; can make a good first impression. JAIL HOUSE improved noticeably in his second start for Dale, albeit in a short field that also included AGUJERO.

THIRD RACE

TONI ANN’S MIRACLE was no match for the breakout effort put forth by the Motion filly Almond Roca across the peninsula in the ungraded Sandpiper last month, but she ought to be good enough to resume her winning ways when trying to knock out her first alw. condition here; those 3 straight wins as an unofficial Horse of the Gulf West meet make her the obvious one to beat here. HEAVENHASMYNIKKI, the sentimental favorite of owner Ron Paolucci, now gets a first legit test after being a Mahoning sideshow with Castellano making a special trip to Ohio on a Tuesday; we’re all “interested to see her run” back, like Shug said. FLORIDA FUEGO stands to benefit in a big way from the Dec. 9 start and comes a major player under J.Ortiz.

FOURTH RACE

Claiming Crown champ CAUTIOUS GIANT goes for a 3rd straight victory when shrewdly spotted under further starter conditions; distance and surface clearly suit; should loom a danger throughout under Jaramillo. HE’S GOT TALENT brings a gaudy 88 BSF to this spot after beating conditioned claimers last out for Navarro; tough foe. GRIFF turns back from a mile after a gritty score for an open quarter.

FIFTH RACE

A return to SoFla and a needed class drop led to a much improved effort from SMARTER, who looks as good as any in this mehh $20k mdn.-claimer going once-around on the turf; tipping point here is this Sullimar homebred is conditioned by Tom Bush, who just has a knack with the turfers. WALDI has the rail, superior Beyers, and J.Ortiz; hard to knock, really. FREUDIAN FALL has shown a decent kick in his last two, both for these same conditions.

SIXTH RACE

Difficult Rainbow 6 sequence (jackpot stood at a whopping $1.8M into Sat. action) begins with a bottom-rung mdn.-claiming sprint in which DREAMING OF J C might’ve actually found the right group. Calabrese et al have already conceded the colt is no superstar, but yeah, this $12.5k tag is about right, as he ran respectably

last out at odds-on after being compromised at the break. PARTICULARITY tries the dirt for the first time, and why not?; should be prominent on slight stretchout. TONY TOMATO debuts for a team (Monarch/Pilotti) that gets its best results with young ones.

SEVENTH RACE

Daring flashes of early speed by DYNAMIC WAR in her last two turf starts in New York should make her a race-long factor when coming well-spotted in her first start for Danny Gargan when staying put for N2L conditions; up to T-Gaff to measure out the speed. LIBERALE gets class relief out of tougher allowances for Motion; looks legit. FARCICAL FELINE takes a reasonable drop after having been away 7+ months for trainer (Goldberg) who does his best work with grassers.

EIGHTH RACE

If you’re willing to ignore a weak last start and believe that the shift from turf to dirt won’t be detrimental, then DOUBLE CABERNET could be your kind of horse, particularly on the aggressive Walder drop; comes well-drawn outside for the long chute run; default selection amid a so-so field of bottom-level N2L mares. BEAUTIFUL ALLY is 1 for 22, ugghh, but continues to knock on the door, with 4 seconds from her last 5 appearances; vital role in the verticals. BOSTON MINE ran creditably last out vs. similar.

NINTH RACE

Put a big red squiggly line through that last Big A debacle by GLORY TO KITTEN, and suddenly her form takes on a different look; the 2-back desperation score in a rich Bel alw. makes her a major consideration as Gargan drops her in for a quarter amid this hybrid starter; forces all the running here as the day’s best. TERI’S BIG HEART is consistent if nothing else; looking to emerge late from another mid-pack trip. LUCKBE TANYA has some decent turf efforts on her back-form as she looks to transition from the Tapeta.

TENTH RACE

All those Beyers in the 90s make BLACK SEA tough to get past in this 2x turf allowance with a $50k claiming option; hasn’t been real big on winning since coming under the Chad fold, but he should have no excuse when securing a good spot prior to the real running getting under way. DERBY CHAMPAGNE was out-nodded by his Rusty stablemate at CD when closing out a pretty productive 4yo campaign; similarly heady effort puts him close here. BALTIC ART has won 3 of his last 5 and is entered off a confidence booster over the local course.

ELEVENTH RACE

Strength of this mdn.-claiming turf finale appears to be drawn to the outside, with 5yo BARBADOS KITTEN getting a new lease on life (and a new set of blinkers) after being haltered by Saffie; conditions should suit under these new silks. ALEXANDRAS JOY returns to the grass as a late-running threat; the 2-back runner-up try vs. similar was solid. SAMURAI’SFIRSTLADY stands to benefit from a needed last out for Casse as well as the addition of Castellano.