ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, SPLIT TIME

FIRST RACE

HOLLAND PARK was in against just three others on debut when outbroke and put on a wide chase right from the start before ultimately settling for second-best to a front-running winner; Tapit colt out of Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Round Pond bred to stretch and wouldn’t appear to have to improve much vs. this field. LONELY WEEKEND has come home second-best without real threat in each of his last two starts, both around two-turns; gets the distance, blinkers on. ROAMING UNION has tired late in both starts over this track and trip, both times after doing some racing early on; softer trip could go a long way, though he wouldn’t appear to have that much improvement in him.

SECOND RACE

PEGASUS RED an infrequent winner, and in fact is rapidly approaching the two year anniversary of his last victory which came back in February of 2016, but he has finished 2nd for this claiming tag seven times in the interim, several of those in close finishes; see if he can show up with his best effort second off the Servis claim as he cuts back to a better distance after getting caught wide chasing a fast pace last time. BRIMSTONE hasn’t run up to his best while facing tougher in three starts for these connections, but he is turning back with speed, and this class drop helps. FRATELLO DEL NORD took a tough beat after battling out the pace in a much improved effort last time; threat with a similar effort in this spot, and he drew well on the outside.

THIRD RACE

Frost Wise is going to be very tough in this race if backing up that blowout win over a mile last time, but she takes on more ground with some other speed to contend with so will give FROSTY MARGARITA a chance to come running late. FROSTY MARGARITA was well-ridden last time at Laurel, though only after a poor start compromised her chances in a race that did not set up that well for closers; has won around two-turns in the past. FROST WISE made her own pace then easily rebuffed heavily-favored Might Be en route to dominant score with a top figure last time; going to be tough if that’s where she is now, but this may be a tougher scenario. RIOT WORTHY will try to close late if a contested scenario develops, though she does appear to be at her best as a closing sprinter.

FOURTH RACE

SPLIT TIME was off slowly before coming forward strongly with an outside run around the turn, and then carried on gamely in the stretch in overall promising debut; figures tough with any improvement for trainer who excels with second time starting maidens. MY VICTORIA ROSE finished well behind the top one first time out, but only after an eventful trip which began with a stumble after the start while she appeared to be trying to show speed; threat to improve quickly with blinkers on. FOREVER DREAMS spent much of her race two back along a dead rail, and she improved last time while finishing gamely late to gain some ground on clear leaders; half to excellent dirt router Empire Dreams may be able to get the mile as she steps back up.

FIFTH RACE

SARATOGA HEATER felt unlucky when troubled at the start of most recent start at this level, and he was compromised last time in a race that was changed with the scratch of speed Married to the music; gets trainer change to Diodoro, for whom he was a dominant winner in lone prior start. BIG GUY IAN dueled and tired in both starts on the way back from a layoff late last year; has some other speed to deal with in this spot, as well, but he has some back races that would give him a chance as

he switches to Rudy’s barn. MAJOR LEAGUE has finished gamely to no avail vs. better in each of his last two starts; drops a bit in a race with some pace to set him up.

SIXTH RACE

DANNY CALIFORNIA has to start putting things together as we turn into the new year, but he has given the impression of a work in progress since that useful debut sprinting, and he did have to steady on the backstretch last time while appearing to be traveling well; one more chance to improve. GIO D’ORO had no excuse considering the way that trip and ride worked out for him last time, though he was gunned down by a horse who appeared to really improve in his dirt debut that day; clear horse to beat. CURLIN’S LEGACY will have to pick it up quickly off that first one, where he wound up taking a little money behind subsequent stakes winner Empire Line, but he is eligible to do so, especially with this added distance to which his pedigree is much better suited.

SEVENTH RACE

Understandable to see NINE ROUTE debuting on turf as a son of The Factor, but he has much more of a dirt pedigree underneath and he really improved with the switch second time out and did so despite going up at the start, which forced him to rush forward and then race off a couple of challenges before going clear; faces a much tougher field this time around, but liked that win and think he has a chance to turn out okay. LOOKING READY has been using his speed in open company stakes on turf lately, but he has been effective sprinting on dirt and this is clearly a better spot for him, though there is some other pace for him to contend with. LOVER’S LEAP earned a trouble comment for his last that is tough to justify, but he held his own in stakes company as a 2yo, and he may have some pace to run at here as he gets a positive trainer change to Charlie Baker.

EIGHTH RACE

BECKER’S GALAXY may no longer be capable of the kind of race he came up with over this distance at Saratoga back in August, where he was dead game to hold on after making a fast pace, but he will be tough here if he can rebound for Rudy, for whom he has run well in the past despite not winning; last three races have not been good, but one of those came over the kind of sloppy track he has never been successful over, and the other two came in tough stakes races, including that sprint last time, which doesn’t appear to be his game. IRON POWER was back in form with some class relief at the end of last year on grass; can handle the main track and his new trainer has been deadly with dirt routers off the claim from a small sample (4 for his last 6, with another running 2nd at nearly 6/1, $11.76 ROI). CHILLY BON BON rounding into form for a top trainer after missing most of the year in 2017; was no match for those $32k claimers last time while managing to stay away from the inside, but he can build off of that run while getting back around two-turns, where he has posted all three career wins.

NINTH RACE

PLATINUM NUGGET was away poorly from the gate before racing wide and tiring late in debut at this level back in November; enters right back for the price for trainer who tends to give them a race first time out. GOOD OLD BOY an unknown on this surface, but did like his race two back sprinting on turf where he went aggressively to contest the pace with the favorite and only weakened late; drops for dangerous trainer. BIG THICKET hasn’t done that much running so far, though he has faced some better fields along the way; kept at the appropriate level off the claim for a hot trainer.