ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, QUEZON

FIRST RACE

BARATTI rates the edge in the opener, a $25,000 nonwinners-of-three claimer that seems below average for the level. He rallied to be third in a $35,000 N3L heat when last seen Dec. 9 and is in good hands with trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He lacks speed but the frontrunners on a whole don’t seem trustworthy. CALIFORNIA SWING is wheeled back on a week’s rest after a third here in the fog over a muddy track; solid numbers but only beat one last out - the short field made his third seem better than it was. STAR EMPIRE was freshened and now adds blinkers after bombing in the slop after a troubled start Oct. 9; ran well when fresh in February of last year, though in a different barn; one of the more appealing speed types.

SECOND RACE

Speedy class droppers typically make the best plays in maiden claiming races and IMPAZIBLE CREEK fits the profile, racing first time for a tag after a third and fifth in a pair of much better special weight races at Saratoga and Belmont; enthusiasm tempered by a layoff going back to Oct. 9. TOUGH OLD BIRD has become more competitive in recent starts, with a recent second resulting in just half-length defeat, though in a cheaper, maiden $25,000 race; threat despite that 0 for 14 record. CATCHMEWITHASMILE is a first timer by speed sire Posse; slow to moderate works for the high-percentage Rudy Rod stable.

THIRD RACE

After going 0 for 7 to begin her career MY ROXY GIRL has looked like a different horse lately, winning a maiden claimer Nov. 24 and then following that up with a eye-catching 8 1/2-length triumph Dec. 14. She did capitalize by sitting a favorable stalking trip that day, but she again figures to enjoy a nice journey tracking the speed. MISS HOT STONES, on the board in all four of her starts, is the class of this allowance with a drop from stakes company, but concerned that she has already lost a couple times at odds-on prices; probable underlay. STONE COLD FLIRT was no match for the top one Dec. 14 when a distant second to her but was hounded early, which might have compromised her finish a bit; speedy and all respectable outings on dirt.

FOURTH RACE

SIMONA has paired up Beyers in the mid 50s, highest of these in this maiden $50,000 race, and comes off a runner-up finish to Midnight Disguise, who subsequently won a starter and ran second in a stakes race. DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS was away awkwardly and then slow to get in gear when debuting, passing a couple tired horses and finishing fourth of 12 at this same class level; likely to improve second out for trainer Linda Rice, whose second timers connect at 24-percent clip. MY LAST MILLION has a third and second in as many starts, and the 52 Beyer she posted last out is only a length or so slower on scale than the numbers posted by SIMONA; adds both first-Lasix and firstblinkers and her barn is 8-2-1-1 with such doubleaddition types over the past five years.

FIFTH RACE

JUMP FOR JOY takes a needed drop from $40,000 to $16,000 N2L claiming after a non-threatening fifth of seven Dec. 15. Her last race notwithstanding, she has been an honest frontrunner over her career. ANNA RAE goes from one high-percentage trainer to another, from Brad Cox to Rudy Rod, after being claimed for this $16,000 tag Dec. 2; ran fourth that day but has six top-3 finishes from 14 dirt starts. THE CAKE IS A LIE scored first off the claim for maiden $25,000; ran a competitive Beyer but is untested vs. winners and therefore ranks behind the top two.

SIXTH RACE

IRIDESCENT MORN faced better on turf against straight maidens Dec. 2 and managed to split the field, running sixth of 11 after a troubled start; expecting improvement second out and no reason to think she can’t handle dirt based on her pedigree. QUEEN APOLLO chased the pace before

fading to fourth Dec. 16 in a race in which she was only a length behind with a furlong remaining; improved staying power anticipated following that experience. PUFFERY debuted with a second behind stakes winner Pure Silver in June before a lackluster return Dec. 16 when sixth as the favorite. Perhaps she needed that race after nearly six months away.

SEVENTH RACE

6-1 shot UNTAKEN comes to New York from her Fair Hill base to capitalize on the starter condition and is in good form a pair of runner-up finishes in allowances at Parx and Laurel. Her most-recent start at Laurel received just a 69 Beyer, a race that rated higher on the TimeformUS scale, a 101 (roughly equivalent to an upper 70s Beyer). Two horses from that race have since started - with the third-place finisher and fourth-place filly running sixth and first in a Jan. 15 allowance at Laurel, respectively. CHRISTMAS SKY comes off a pair of blowout victories going this one-turn mile at Aqueduct, though the races were for maiden $30,000 and $35,000; caught a depleted off-the-turf group in her latest, though the runner-up came back to romp. GOBI won for fun against $20,000 stock in fast time Dec. 8 and was claimed; likely repeats if she runs back to that race, but her other races from last year weren’t as flashy.

EIGHTH RACE

QUEZON is the class of this New York-bred lineup, a multiple stakes winner of $694,000 that was competitive in a couple graded races last year; was edged by ABSATOOTLY but when the latter turned in a Beyer far above anything she had previously run. That said, ABSATOOTLY is still a nice mare, even if she more regularly runs in 80s Beyer range rather than the 98 she posted in beating QUEZON in the Iroquois at Belmont. WONDERMENT has struggled to keep up late in her last couple races but can challenge on her best day. TimeformUS pace figures suggest she is quick enough to be right near the pace in a race without much speed.

NINTH RACE

PAID ADMISSION is cut in half from $20,000 to $10,000 claiming and worked a bullet half-mile in 49 4/5 seconds Jan. 15 for this race, his third start of his current form cycle since being claimed by his current connections in Septemberl; plenty of pace to aid his rally. BLUEGRASS SINGER is speedy and also dropping form the $20,000 level, but TimeformUS projects a fast pace and in glancing thru the past performances, one also gets that impression. PIRELLONE, a stablemate of the top choice, just won last out at Parx, though against cheaper N4L claiming foes. Now he moves back to this tougher circuit and rises in claiming price and lands in an open claimer.