ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, MS BAD BEHAVIOR

FIRST RACE

A Super High Five carryover of $13,554 is up for grabs in the opener, if all seven that entered actually start. Otherwise, the carryover will be offered on the next race with seven or more starters. CONQUEROR required 12 starts to finally win a maiden-claiming sprint last out, yet the vastly improved gelding is the choice to win right back facing winners for the first time. Both recent starts (win, second) were highly rated, his off-the-pace style suits the pace scenario, and trainer Vladimir Cerin is off to a hot start this winter (6 wins, 7 seconds from 21 starts). Front-runner CARAY ran the fastest race of his career last out, an 86-Beyer maiden-claiming victory. Not sure where that race came from; his first nine starts were modest. But if he somehow runs two alike, he can win right back. The pace scenario is challenging for CARAY, however. Rivals to his inside and outside both have speed. QUALITY LINE has a deep-closing style that could play well in a field loaded with speed, MR. TWINERY and CHRISISCOOKIN are the aforementioned pace rivals for the CARAY.

SECOND RACE

TRUSTWORTHY returns from a two-month layoff as a first-time gelding, while dropping from starter allowance to $25k claiming N2L, with speed for a cozy trip positioned second behind the speed. If and when the pacesetter falters, TRUSTWORTHY should get first run. All systems go, first start back. The aforementioned pacesetter is maiden20 winner BIG DAY TOMORROW. He won last out setting/pressing legit fractions, and could be loose on the lead in this otherwise paceless affair. He faces an odd track-profile stat, however. Zero of the 10 dirt races this meet at one mile were won by the pacesetter; five were won by the horse positioned second behind the pacesetter. BEDEVILED has the top speed figures and therefore could go favored as he drops from allowance company to race for a tag. The only knock on the high-figure starter is likely low odds.

THIRD RACE

This N1X sprint for 3yo fillies is scheduled for the hillside turf course, but there is a threat of rain. On either turf or dirt, MS BAD BEHAVIOR is the one to beat. She has been running well against top company including Piedi Bianchi, a G1 runnerup; Alluring Star, BC Juvenile Fillies runner-up; undefeated G1 winner Dream Tree and subsequent G2 winner Midnight Bisou. No such rivals in this allowance field. ‘BEHAVIOR has speed but is versatile, she is perfectly drawn outside, and if the race stays on turf that is fine. This is her first try on turf; her sire Blame gets 16 percent winners on turf, and her dam Cumulonimble won 6 of 12 on grass. Standout? Looks that way. OUT OF THE FLAMES made one start in the U.S., third by a half-length in a $200k turf sprint in in November at Del Mar. It was a promising local debut considering she broke dead last. She stretches from five furlongs to six and a half, and drops from stakes to N1X. SPICED PERFECTION faced state-bred stakes company her last three starts, with one win and two seconds. Turf would be something new, but she fires every start. MEDAGLIA GOLD routes as if she might like this sprint distance.

FOURTH RACE

Back-to-back runner-up including a similar maiden-30 sprint here three weeks ago, WILD EDIE is the logical choice to wear down potential pacesetter LINE DRIVE. The latter tried a specialweight route last time on turf, and lost by more than 32 lengths. She shortens to a dirt sprint; her third-place finish two back in a maiden-50 makes her a threat to wire the field. PURE SUGAR broke slowly from the rail in her debut, and finished next to last. Freshened since, dropping from maiden50, improvement likely.

FIFTH RACE

The latest wrinkle added to the Santa Anita racing program is an increasing number of maiden-claiming races on turf. This maiden-40 turf mile for 3yo fillies is the fourth such race already this meet. DR. ANN was wiped out last time when a rival blew the turn and carried her out. ‘ANN lost by more than 22 lengths. Her previous turf start was actually okay, fifth by two and a half vs. special-weight maidens at Del Mar. She drops in class, and gets the tepid call in a perplexing race. PRAIRIE CITIZEN drops from special-weight to maiden-40 for

her first start since November. Each subsequent start last year as a 2yo produced a higher figure; the one-three finishers from the race she exits returned to win. These are much easier. CONFORMATION was wiped out early in the same race as the top choice. It was a toss-out race. Her midfield finish in a special-weight turf route here during the fall meet puts her right in the thick of the action.

SIXTH RACE

After he bombed at low odds in his career debut, REGULATE improved a ton his next start. He finished second while more than three lengths clear of third. With two routes under his belt, tactical speed to be forwardly placed, and an improving pattern, REGULATE is the right call to win this maiden race for 3yos. CAMBY also improved second out, runner-up at 55-1. He has two sprints under his belt and is ready to stretch out. DRAFT PICK is gradually improving; he finished third last out in a similar MSW route won by a stablemate. ‘PICK did get bogged in traffic into the far turn, though not serious, and finished evenly. Cannot ignore his improving pattern, but his effort looks better on paper than on video. The grinding maiden is the third preference. PADDOCK PICK finally ran to his sharp works last time, setting a fast pace and finishing third in a seven-furlong sprint. He goes long for the first time, and probably is the one to catch. However, pacesetters have not won their fair share this meet at a mile on dirt.

SEVENTH RACE

In a wide-open $12.5k claiming N2L sprint, GOTTA GET LUCKY gets the call. Although he merely split the field last out, either of his runner-up finishes in two previous starts would be plenty fast enough. Trainer Genaro Vallejo has had a terrific run the past four months in Southern California, where he is 12-for-38 since mid-September. MARVELOUS MAX is the only entrant in this bottom-level claiming race that has not already lost at the N2L class level. First start since October 2016, in light with seven-pound apprentice rider Franklin Ceballos, the gelding faces a modest field for his comeback. GO GHETTO returns to a sprint off a sevenweek freshening. Tough to overlook the fact the top choice finished in front of him twice last fall. DAD’S A GAMBLER was compromised by trouble at the takeoff his last two starts.

EIGHTH RACE

A $20k claiming turf mile will end the card. TRIFECTA stretches back to two turns and drops from a N1X sprint that in hindsight appeared to be nothing more than a prep race. It was his first start in nearly three months; he can improve against this easier bunch. The most-recent win by TRIFECTA was a mile turf race on this course last spring EAGLE SCREAMS returns from layoff of nearly seven months. The 9yo gelding usually needs a prep race coming back from a layoff, but his workout pattern at Golden Gate suggests he might be ready to fire first time back this time around. BRONZINO upset similar last out at Golden Gate; stablemates ORINO and FOR GREATER GLORY have run races fast enough for this level.