Four Ky. Derby prospects flying under the radar

Although the major players on the road to the Kentucky Derby seem a little more defined this year than in 2017, when eventual winner Always Dreaming was still a maiden in mid-January, I have no doubt that little-known 3-year-olds will vault into the Derby discussion in the coming weeks. Such is the norm with young colts at this stage of the year, when they are experiencing physical and mental development.

So, with Always Dreaming serving as a reminder, this week I combed through past performances, speed figures, and workouts to look for colts who might not be on everyone’s Kentucky Derby radar. What follows is a shortlist with some background on each.

Combatant: He is not an unknown by any means, as the runner-up in the Springboard Mile and Smarty Jones Stakes, but he doesn’t seem to have caught the eye of observers as much as one would expect. I suppose this is because he has yet to win a stakes race, but regardless of the reason, this seems like an error. This is a colt – by a top sire in Scat Daddy – who has never been worse than second in three starts on dirt and whose Beyer Speed Figures have steadily improved.

After running a 64 first out when fourth in a turf race at Churchill Downs, he progressed to a 77 in winning a maiden race at Churchill Downs on dirt before leaping forward to an 83 in the Springboard Mile. Then, he surpassed that number once again by running a 94 in the Smarty Jones.

That number often is good enough to win graded races at this time of year, but he simply had the misfortune of catching Mourinho in the Smarty Jones on a day when that rival was the lone speed and simply uncatchable.

Audible: This colt is tricky to assess, having recorded his two victories from three starts against somewhat questionable opposition. His maiden victory came against New York-breds on Nov. 15, and though he won an open allowance Dec. 6, it came in an off-the-turf race in which there was little talent to test him.

Regardless, he won for fun, scoring by 9 3/4 lengths and posting a quite respectable 84 Beyer. And as in his maiden victory, he appeared strong at the finish, seemingly calling out for more ground.

One would think he should get that soon. He breezed a half-mile in 49.20 seconds at Palm Beach Downs last Saturday, and a two-turn stakes race would appear to be next for this Into Mischief colt, who sold for a hefty $500,000 at Fasig-Tipton last year.

Noble Indy: A colt by Take Charge Indy, he is quite similar to Audible. Like that one, he is a Todd Pletcher trainee who should get his first stakes test soon.

Although his margin of victory in an allowance Jan. 11 at Gulfstream was smaller than what some expected – three-quarters of a length – I got the feeling that there was more in the tank. He seemed to have runner-up Mississippi measured for the whole race, and once he stuck his head in front in the stretch, he seemed to wait on that rival.

I expect he will benefit from that experience, his first around two turns. He is undefeated in two starts and earned an 88 Beyer in his allowance triumph while appearing to finish with something left.

Dark Templar: A winner first out when sprinting Nov. 4 at Churchill, he returned going a route Dec. 16 at Fair Grounds and finished a well-beaten third – though not without an excuse. Away poorly, he was forced to play catchup, and he was racing in a rather salty allowance won by eventual Lecomte runnerup Principe Guilherme.

This colt, by Tapit, runs Saturday at Fair Grounds in the ninth race and likely won’t even be favored. He’s the probable second betting choice behind Retirement Fund, a 7 1/4-length debut winner routing at Fair Grounds Dec. 22.

Whoever wins Saturday’s race – Dark Templer, Retirement Fund, or some outsider – probably merits close attention going forward.