ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, HOLLAND ROAD

FIRST RACE

LOVE YOUR BUTTONS managed a respectable fourth first off the claim last out against richer maiden $40,000 maiden claimers, and is now cut in half to maiden $20,000; goes a in distance and not particularly speedy, but some of his better races have come sprinting. SHOOT THE GAP ran fairly evenly to be third at this level Dec. 15, and has back class from the spring and early summer of last year. I WANT MO is a speedy classy dropper that comes here by way of Florida, but is unraced since March and could be disadvantaged by the lengthy time away. Already speedy, he adds blinkers and figures to come out gunning for the lead.

SECOND RACE

STAN THE MAN and PRESERVATIONIST own roughly equivalent recent Beyers in the low 90s following runner-up finishes, but ‘THE MAN figures to be the better price of the two, as a former maiden claimer while ‘PRESERVATIONIST is a pricey $485,000 purchase that has gone favored in each of his two starts. All things considered, rather take the one with the higher odds. FOOCH finished well behind ‘THE MAN when fifth last out but possesses speedy and is lightly raced - so improvement is possible.

THIRD RACE

DO YOU KNOW SOMETHING has run Beyers of 96-101 when matched against more difficult opposition; outgamed when fourth in his latest but against a far better group than the rivals he faces here. HARLAN PUNCH is three for five since being claimed by David Jacobson this summer at Saratoga; been running one turn lately but handled two turns previously though he was fond of minor awards in such races. BACK SIDE OF THE MOON seems a cut behind the top two and is more likely to settle for a minor award than to win; just 2 for 19 on dirt.

FOURTH RACE

GLENNRICHMENT has performed well since adding blinkers last winter, going 6-2-1-1 with the shades on. The only contests over that stretch in which he was unplaced came when overmatched in the Wood, and when returning from a five-month layoff in the fall; first time for a tag in this $50,000 N3L claimer. STARSHIP ZEUS consistently posts nice Beyers in the low to mid 80s and drops from allowance company, but is difficult to trust in the win pool as the likely favorite given his 36-2-8-9 record; best to use him in the 2-3 spots in the gimmicks. KARMA DELIGHT hit the brakes after contesting the pace last out, fading to fifth, but had previously run well in two prior starts for the Baker barn.

FIFTH RACE

H MAN turned in a useful comeback to be fourth Dec. 29 after being away since July, and seemingly has every reason to benefit from that comeback race; is 5 for 22 over the past couple years and his tactical speed is another asset. BENEVOLENCE comes off a pair of seconds, but that has been an all-too-frequent finishing position for him. A closer, he settled for the runner-up prizes six times in 11 races against first-level allowance foes last year. CALCULATED RISKER enjoyed a productive fall at Finger Lakes before coming here and turning in a flat effort when sixth in a Dec. 29 contest; perhaps can return to peak form in his second start here this meet.

SIXTH RACE

After going winless over his first six races HOLLAND ROAD has won two straight, both over this surface with today’s jock, Kendrick Carmouche. Those wins also came with outside stalking trips, and this starter sets up to unfold

similarly with him lying a few lengths behind the speed on the outside. SCARF IT DOWN has show that he fits against starter $50,000 runners with three thirds and a second in four races against such competition; cut back from a mile to six furlongs after coming up empty late in his last two starts. SPECIAL STORY ran contending Beyers and some of the race’s highest TimeformUS ratings when rallying for minor awards against conditioned claimers in California; just one career victory, however.

SEVENTH RACE

HAMMERIN AAMER went 8-3-3-2 in 2017 while specializing in one-turn miles - just the kind of conditions he gets today; fast on figures and knocking at the first-level allowance door. SPIETH bombed in the Grade 3 Discovery over this track but had previously been second and third in a pair of allowance races, finishing in front of HAMMERIN AAMER on one occasion and behind him on another; back in a spot where he should threaten. DONJI comes here by way of California where he posted Beyers in the 80s while often a factor; 16-1-8-3 dirt record suggests he is best used underneath in the exotics.

EIGHTH RACE

WONDERFUL LIGHT ran lights out when returning from five months of inactivity to in a maiden contest Dec. 31, rolling by 3 1/2 lengths in a fast race over a dull Aqueduct strip; sat a stalking threewide trip that day and be similarly positioned here.

WESTWOOD kicked away like was going to win last out going seven eighths, but grew tired late and was run down in the final sixteenth while a clearcut second; broke his maiden at this 6 1/2-furlong distance in November. FOREST BLUE, 12-1 on the morning line, is a value horse to throw into the gimmicks. He is speedy and regularly a factor and seems to have more ability than he showed when third Dec. 1.

NINTH RACE

VALYRIAN is aggressively spotted with a drop off the claim after not running to expectations when sixth Dec. 16; never in for this cheap of a day, and still lightly raced and capable of moving forward. Morning-line favorite LIGHTNING BUZZ has made 11 starts to five for the top choice - leaving him with less upside; has bridesmaid tendencies with already four runner-up finishes against $16,000 N2L foes such as these. FACADE seems like the type that is unlikely to win but could rally for a third or fourth against horses of this caliber; fourth, fifth, and third in three races vs. this class of claimers.