ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, STASHA MINASHA

FIRST RACE

Excellent 11-race Sat. card will get under way with outside-drawn fillies the likely favorites for the 12:12 ET opener. TITAN CITY might well prove best of those, given the way she surged up the rail for this same bottom-level N3L condition 3 weeks ago; a little follow-thru will do. CLOUDED APPEAL merits a close look on the stretchout after being out of her element last out; open-air outside box can yield the right kind of stalk-and-see trip in her return to one turn over dirt. KATHERINE’S DRAMA steps up off a gritty score over N2L types.

SECOND RACE

Owner Schickedanz and trainer Sullivan are live in both ends of the early double as CAVALLO D’ORO looks to improve over that decent first try over dirt just 10 days ago; can take them deeper, again using front-end tactics. SOUTHAMPTON PRIDE already has had a dozen cracks at shedding the maiden label, which is generally a negative, but the recent effort off a brief layoff suggests he’ll be competitive here. SWEET TALKIN SAM (far outside) and GEORGE GRAMMAS (rail) make interesting bookends.

THIRD RACE

Very tough to look past what ALMOND ROCA did in blowing doors in the Sandpiper, as that might eventually become known in the Motion barn as the day she put it all together; another waitand-go trip under Pablo could result in another one-sided affair. The Phipps homebred BARRIER ISLAND surely will take her share of action when adding Lasix off a MSW score as a GP favorite; Shug and NY standout M.Franco in her corner to boot. HOMEMADE SALSA, as an ungraded stakes winner, might have a slight edge on the other 3 fillies.

FOURTH RACE

This turf route for N2L-$16k types is one of several head-scratchers on the day, with the winner liable to come from most anywhere; giving ROUND HILL the tepid nod while assuming Johns has been looking to get him back on the grass; the last-out dirt debacle 10 days ago seems forgivable. SUMMER SPICE represents the Stidham barn, which has cooled off a bit after alerting everyone to their presence in Oldsmar; just-miss in a 3-horse photo in his Gulf West farewell typified his overall record (1 win but 8 times in the money from 17 tries). DARN THAT PARKER has run two decent races at this level already this meet.

FIFTH RACE

R POINT MADE comes the obvious outside speed when facing winners for the first time, which should be enough to give him every chance on this slight stretchout. Little doubt he’s had his share of problems, as evidenced by the belated start to his career, but he can still become useful; ran away from weak maidens leading into this tougher test. NEPHEW HOWARD D was 2nd for this same condition 3 weekends ago and now adds top jock Gallardo; has knocked on the door quite a few times. RING OF HEAT can factor in; there’s Bruno and Elliot again.

SIXTH RACE

Subtle drop into this open $16k claimer can make a big difference for CRIMSON HAYES after tackling tougher starter types in his first 2 of the meet for Nations, who’s enjoying a productive stand so far; the 2-back early surge perhaps a hint to his potential. HIGH SIDE surely needed his last one after being away 4+ months; in capable hands. MADE IN

DETROIT, BRIDLES HOLIDAY, and DREAM MAN all merit respect in a deep lineup. You didn’t really think a Saturday MSW at Tampa would lack representation from the big boys on the other side of the peninsula, did you? Wellllp, here’s that guy named Todd with an expensive newbie named GLEASON leading the invasion; the rich Claiborne pedigree and the Palm Beach works won’t escape anyone’s notice. Similarly, BRAVE NATION comes very well-prepped by HOF trainer Mott when drawing the advantageous outer box; surely the connections harbor high hopes for this son of Pioneerof the Nile. NOTACATBUTACARD was almost ready to run last spring before Benson stopped on him, ultimately turning him over to Ryan.

EIGHTH RACE

Pretty solid renewal of the Pasco likely will have WORLD OF TROUBLE a slight favorite amid a handful of viable contenders, if only because of that field-high 88 BSF out of a $200k Fla. Sire event for former connections; working right along in Boynton in recent weeks for Jason Servis, who enjoyed another sensational year in ‘17; Gallardo figures to have him prominent from the bell. HE HATE ME is a difficult gauge, given how he’s been away 7+ months since his Tremont score; Franco in from NY to work out the right kind of trip along the fence. TWIN FARMS and ARAZI LIKE MOVE both gave futile chase to Tricks to Doo in the Inaugural 5 Saturdays ago.

NINTH RACE

Again, here come the New York stables looking to break a maiden, and you can be forgiven for not resisting a chalk-out with the Clement filly, ARTISTIC QUALITY, assuming the races stay on grass today. Gray gal was beaten in a photo prior to departing Belmont and taking some Payson regrouping; normal effort should take this, you’d sure think. SAMARA will be taking early flight when trying 2 turns for the first time; needing Cruz to push the right buttons when trying to walk the dog. RAIN ON THE DUNE (blinkers on) and WINDJAMMER figure in the mix.

TENTH RACE

Hardly could’ve asked for a better tuneup for this $50k stake than what TAPA TAPA TAPA got 4 Saturdays ago in drubbing inferior alw. types; she does face significantly better here, but man, she might just have this thing for the Tampa surface, particularly in view of the way she outran Elate here last February in the Suncoast; inner post will encourage Pablo to secure a forward position asap; definitely the filly to beat. WELL HUMORED hasn’t done much wrong for WinStar and Delacour in limited opportunities; turf-to-dirt angle is in her favor, in addition to the strong Ocala drills. TEJANA was a fairly big disappointment in her first two tries at 4 before leaving NY on an upbeat note for Shug.

ELEVENTH RACE

Saving the day’s best for last on the assumption STASHA MINASHA can revert to her 2-back effort over the local course; drop-back for the $16k tag and an inner post should make this grass-bred (by City Zip) filly a major threat down the lane. NEGEV ran for as little as a nickel last year, but her Tampa grass debut last month for Proctor was a pleasant surprise; something close to a repeat ought to put her close. ODACHI has previously done battle with quite a few of these others (MY LITTLE PRINCESS, AMERICAN MERLOT, MY SOLITUDE) while acquitting herself respectably.