ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SILVER JESTER

FIRST RACE

Notice anything different about this race? All six entrants are stretching-out. GLORIOUS PLAN was buried on the rail in her most recent and that is not the place to be going 6 1/2 furlongs. Plus, it was her first start on this dirt. She moves back to a two turns today and especially likes a flat mile (3 for 4). PAPASLILPRINCESS is the fresh face from New Mexico. Form cycle hints at better and she has won four times at today’s distance. First time this dirt is a small knock. PUT SARAH ON drops in class and goes third off the layoff. She seems capable at a mile.

SECOND RACE

FABULOUS LADY just figures as she is feeling good, has speed, goes for top barn, and always gets bet. Three out of four isn’t half bad, right? Lone knock is that 5 1/2 furlongs hasn’t been all great for her at 4-0-0-1. HOLY MOSEY ran evenly last out and now drops in class. She does get in light. Isn’t this race kinda weak for the level? AIKMAN JEWEL just didn’t fire last out and we don’t know why. We have always liked this mare. Race flow is OK only if the 1 and 3 hook up early.

THIRD RACE

PREACHERS DREAM catches a race with three speed runners. The long layoff is a concern but we thought her return try was OK and now she returns without a layoff...and with a recent work. We have zero problem trusting the barn of Doug Oliver. PSYCHOTIC STORM ran OK last out and now goes second time this dirt. A stalking trip with all the speed in here sounds like a decent enough trip. PARTICLE OF ENERGY draws outside main pace foes. Maybe the big class drop does the trick.

FOURTH RACE

HAWKEYE GOLD never got a breather in his most recent and paid the price. That was a very good runner in Shrewd Runner that he lost to only two back. Class drop and the jockey switch to Stevens looks like the money run to us. ROYAL PRIVACY is the speed. Current form is very sharp but he will have to win with a new barn today. BROADWAY NIKA has run 69 times but guess how many on a wet track? Yep, it is only once and it came in his most recent. That sprint try at Los Al four back would fit nicely here.

FIFTH RACE

MISS TIZZY FIT has better upside than all of these but you can see that, right? Safe to say that her try versus winners only two back can be dismissed. There isn’t much pace in this race so although she won’t be on the engine she won’t be that far off the early leaders. STOLEN DREAM just missed two back but then was thrown to the allowance wolves last out with predictable results. She actually has some tactical speed but not sure what that recent route try will do to it. LOVEYOULESS is a grinder. We like that she gets an extra furlong to work with today. Musical jocks continues.

SIXTH RACE

UNCLE FUDGE is just a solid claimer. Allowance foes a bit tough two back. His local debut previously was actually quite good even if he got some pace to set up his late run. You can’t knock his mile tab of 10-4-0-2. BIG TALL PAUL is an 11YO that has hit the board in four straight races. Off the pace runner does have some tactical speed. EVENING CONCERTO is another 11YO. His last two starts aren’t much to crow about but he was coming off a layoff and these older horses often need multiple starts to get back into the swing of things. A good price for sure.

SEVENTH RACE

SIERRA ROMANCE ran evenly off the layoff so there is a better than average chance that he moves forward second off it. A Beyer top only four back at Emerald. If for some reason, the umbrellas come out today, then the playing field tilts in his favor. CHARISMIC might be the speed. The bad news is that he was afforded an early breather in his two most recent but failed to win either. Exacta players love him as he has never missed it on this dirt in four starts. Any chance he is better with a target? Yep, that’s crazy talk. Or is it? DIVINE MANDATE cuts back a half furlong to what might be his favorite distance. He did get a 57 Beyer as recently as four back. At times, he has some zip.