ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, BLUE LUTE

FIRST RACE

ASK THE HEIR was against the race flow in each of his last two, and the race flow two back forced him to make a premature move toward the lead, before he flattened out late; stands to move up here if he gets a better set up this afternoon. SOCAROO has never raced on the main track but his pedigree suggests this could well be his best surface after all; figures to be involved early despite his outside post, as he does have some early zip. BRAVE REQUEST is another with some early zip, and he also has consistent figures; wouldn’t be a surprise, but he could be an underlay given the expected price and his overall record.

SECOND RACE

HEAT SEEKING ships down from Penn National and seems to be a good fit with the locals, as she has decent figures and enough early speed to be a threat from the start; also working well for her first start since October. J K’S GIRL was an easy winner against restricted winners in her latest, and though she’s up in class for this she merits respect based on that effort and figure; ability to lead or rate a plus. YOU LIE is a one-dimensional speed, making her strategy clear despite the removal of blinkers; note the barn’s sensational record with horses making their second starts off a layoff.

THIRD RACE

JACKISM was a sharp winner in his first start, his only other sprint try, and though he was no threat in his last two tries — both routes — the barn excels with horses turning back in distance; needs pace but he should get it. JOJO’S SPENSIVE was against the race flow two back, and a race-long duel cost him last time; better trip can make all the difference. GALLOWS BAY makes his first start off the claim and he could be the one to beat on the strength of his Beyers, which are among the best in the field.

FOURTH RACE

SHE’SABIG MACHINE caught the eye with a nice late rally when third in that last one, and she was flattered when the runner-up, fellow closer Extra Salsa, returned to win the finale on Sunday in impressive fashion; can make the last run here with a clean trip and an honest pace. MEGSTONE has run well in defeat in her two starts at the meet, and she was also sharp in that sprint try at the Meadowlands three back; another stretch threat. BLAME T J nearly overcame the race flow in that last one, just missing with a late run; meets better off the claim but the barn has solid stats with fresh faces.

FIFTH RACE

WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT has the rail, and also has high speed; she stopped on a loose lead in that last try but she had to work hard to shake loose in a race with a good amount of speed, and she got caught in duels in her two prior tries, at today’s distance. FREAKIN’ ME OUT gets back to a sprint after tiring going long and this does seem to be her best game; improvement expected. NERVE LINE is a little obvious off that near miss in a similar spot last time; certainly capable but a short price looms despite a long chase after that elusive second career win.

SIXTH RACE

HIGH BEAM is the first starter from the dam Bonanza Jellybean, who won three races, all of them on the turf; works are on the quick side and he figures to be overlooked in the wagering with a couple of horses with established form and firsters like AZZEDINE, from the barn of Chad Brown. ARMAMENT was sharp in defeat in his first start off a long break, rallying nicely after racing well back early on; dangerous if he’s able to move

forward in his 2nd start back. CLEARLY was game in defeat in that last one and he is CLEARLY a threat to win this with a similar effort/Beyer.

SEVENTH RACE

DON’T CHANGE ME took some money for her debut at Thistledown but a slow start cost her and she was never a threat; looking for her to show some speed, assuming a clean getaway, and that would give her an edge given the uncertain race flow in this field. PRIMA GOLD lost ground in the lane after stalking the pace in her bow but she could find herself on the lead with aggressive handling from Gallardo. HALEY’S THUNDER rushed up after getting bumped around at the start in her bow; certainly a threat right back with a quick start, and perhaps the one to beat.

EIGHTH RACE

BLUE LUTE could not be working better for his first start since November, and though he was off the board in both of his two starts to date he has excuses each time, catching a good field in a sprint which proved to be key in his debut and a yielding course at Churchill last time out; expecting him to return running off those breezes. DREAMZAPPER is out of a dam who was a stakes winner on the green, and all three of her runners to start were winners, including Brother O’Connell, who won the Mohawk Stakes and three other grass races; barn has enjoyed a solid meet. WICKED TRICK adds blinkers for his first start off the short layoff; Beyers fit well enough.

NINTH RACE

SHES ONE MAD MOMMA debuts for a win-early barn and she meets a field which could be slightly below average for the class; kin to four winners, including Brothers of the time, who won his debut and then a stakes race as a 2-year-old. REIGNING GAL was game in defeat as the favorite in her bow, and though she’s up in class for this she clearly has to be respected off that sharp try; figures to be on or near the lead. RATTLESNAKEROSE middlemoved before flattening out in a debut that was better than it may appear on paper; drops from Maiden Special Weight company for this.

TENTH RACE

WILD CHATTER could only manage third as the favorite when last seen but that was a deceptively good effort, as that race a race light on pace and the winner controlled the issue from start to finish; back after a freshening and the barn has solid stats with horses off this type of break. KACY LAUREN has steady Beyers and a nice late kick; should be in position to use it here, as there are a couple of speeds in this lineup to set up the closers. SKRADIN meets lesser after she was outrun against better in her return from the layoff; barn always must be respected here, especially with turf routers.