ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, MOONSPELL

FIRST RACE

Would be nice to see some workout activity from CENT COMM, but learned in first stab at the LRL analysis last week that horses are winning this time of year without the sort of smooth work patterns we prefer to see. Appears to have found his level since he won that $16K maiden-claimer, and all his (relatively) recent tries for $10K N2L claiming seem to fit the spot. CHOCOMOUNT finished in front of the top pick in a common recent start, but that after Cent Comm fell farther back than ideal at a 7f trip probably short of his best. At least Choco, who runs off a claim, has been posting timed drills. EARNED IT is in the same conversation as the top two but appears to be a half—cut below their standard form, and without obvious paths to improvement.

SECOND RACE

Some tough races on this card, but found this one the most difficult. Pretty much no one really looks a strong fit for a tag even as high as $7.5K, and those in the best recent form don’t appear to be well suited to the one-turn mile. But in this venture “pass” is not an option, so —- SAM SPARKLE is one of those referenced as distance-questionable, but though his running lines show only sprints, at some point he put together a 4-0-2-1 record at this trip. Fell pretty far down the ladder last year (he’s 10, after all), but new connections got him out of a blowout $5K win, freshened, and bring back on a 50% raise. That’s enough to slightly encourage. Suppose the hope is he gets out in front and calls on his “back class.” NOBLE KENT won by too many lengths too recently to be comfortable about him coming close to reproducing that form, particularly since it was around a second turn at a different racetrack. And yet. RARE EAGLE’s recent blossoming came in 1 1/16-mile two turn races, and skeptical he’s as good right now at this one-turn mile.

THIRD RACE

The H de Paz barn has done strong recent work with first-time starters, and homebred firster SWINGING BRIDGE has put together an encouraging breeze pattern for her unveiling. On straight pedigree the $25K tag seems reasonable for starting-off point. PARCHED GHOST took betting but showed little more than brief debuting in an DelPark MSW last July. Homebred is by a stallion showing $5K stud fee, so we can live with the drop in for a tag. Was almost as if connections just wanted to get another race into third-time-starting SPLENDOR GAL when they ran her back for $40K just 13 days after a decent but hardly dazzling $25K debut. Might be more there, there.

FOURTH RACE

Barring scratches it’s hard to see this race not falling apart due to a surplus of front-running types. One of them is Balkan, and he happens to have a coupled barn-mate, ALL SPUN UP, who apparently wants to sit at the back early and make one late run. That nearly worked Dec. 22, his last start, and while that was a $5K claimer and this $10K, not really seeing the class gulf between the races being as wide as the raw dollar amount. Two recent half-mile drills for new connections. WILKO’S GOLDENEYE struggles to win races but enjoys the short-sprint trip and should be off the pace. FLY E DUBAI never has been in this low and also will be back early, but his most recent try was poor enough to raise a red flag on the class drop.

FIFTH RACE

HASHTAG SELFIE won by more than six lengths two back in her most recent start for this $5K claiming price, and can be excused the subsequent dud trying to stretch to two turns. Back to her winning distance with four recent local works, though worth mentioning the barn’s stock was running cold last LRL racing week. GIMME KIMMY was all but eased across the finish Jan. 28 in a flat try off the claim, but she was in for a $10K tag and now quickly back to the $5K price for which she was taken two back. Plenty of rebound potential here. BALTIMORE STREET got back to the right level Jan. 12 after being in too tough, but while that 5 1/2-furlong try suggested a horse that might like this 7f trip, earlier evidence hints otherwise.