Track, distance suit Gunnevera’s style

All eyes will be on Gulfstream Park on Saturday when the world’s richest race – the Grade 1, $16 million Pegasus World Cup – will be run. The Pegasus will mark the final career start of Gun Runner, who will be heavily favored against 11 opponents on the strength of a 2017 campaign that saw him win four straight Grade 1 events, capped by the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gun Runner’s streak was sure to land him Horse of the Year honors at the Eclipse Awards dinner Thursday night.

Not surprisingly, there is a strong Pegasus undercard that includes seven other stakes, and four are Grade 3 races. There also are four stakes races each on the cards at Santa Anita and Laurel.

Pegasus World Cup

I have always been a little tough on Gun Runner, believing many of his biggest wins have been achieved over questionable company and/or with the benefit of favorable trips. But his decisive victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic could not have impressed me more. Not only did Gun Runner draw clear late to score decisively after taking serious pace pressure from the then redhot Collected, he did so while also racing on or near a Del Mar main track rail that was demonstrably dead on both Breeders’ Cup Friday and Saturday. Gun Runner’s Classic was a “wow” performance for me – by far the best of his career – and all things being equal, an effort reasonably close to that would be too much for this Pegasus field.

The problem is all horse races are not equal. The Pegasus is a 1 1/8-mile race and, by now, most horseplayers should know that because of a very short run to the first turn, outside posts in 1 1/8-mile main-track races are a massive disadvantage. Since the rebuilt Gulfstream reopened in early 2006, posts 9 and higher in nine-furlong dirt races there are a combined 11 for 238, for a win rate of only 4.6 percent. In comparison, posts 1 through 7 in these races all have individual double-digit win percentages. Posts 1 and 4 on their own win at more than three times the rate of posts 9 and higher combined. Post 3 alone wins at a rate almost four times higher than posts 9 and higher combined. And in the year since last year’s inaugural Pegasus, posts 5 and higher in 1 1/8-mile dirt races at Gulfstream are a combined 1 for 39.

Gun Runner drew post 10 for the Pegasus, and in projecting how this event will unfold, it’s easy envisioning him being caught four or five wide on the first turn. As much as I admire what Gun Runner did in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, I am not at all certain that he can overcome ground loss like that. I have to stand against him, especially at a very short price.

I’m taking a shot with Gunnevera. Gunnevera finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but he might have finished higher had he not moved to the dead rail turning for home. Gunnevera was a good second in the Travers two starts back to the looseon-an-easy-lead West Coast after a strong five-wide move on the far turn. I anticipate a contested pace in the Pegasus on a track that, with a dry, breezy forecast, could possibly be a little deeper than usual. That could suit the late kick of Gunnevera, who likes Gulfstream, anyway. I think he’ll also like the cut back from 10 to nine furlongs.

Hurricane Bertie Stakes

Curlin’s Approval has a big Gulfstream reputation, earned on the strength of a 7-for-11 record on the main track there. But California shipper Marley’s Freedom is the one for me here.

Marley’s Freedom showed vast improvement last year and earned a start most recently in the Grade 1 La Brea off an impressive allowance romp two back at Del Mar. Marley’s Freedom finished a respectable fourth in the La Brea behind Unique Bella, Paradise Woods, and Mopotism, who are simply significantly better than what she faces in this spot.

Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint

It’s no shock that there is some serious early speed in this event, and I like Rainbow Heir to close and score.

Rainbow Heir was nosed in this race last year, and though he subsequently won 3 of 6 starts, his win last time in the Aqueduct Turf Sprint was his best effort since.