ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MAKE AMERICA GR TAG IN

FIRST RACE

ACHARNEMENT is by a 12% debut turf sire. Her dam went 7-1-0-1 for 51 on the grass. One of four sibs won on the weeds with another hitting the board. We saw this barn finish second with a first time turfer just last week and it almost won on the front end. What does this filly do best? Speed baby speed. We really like that blow out bullet on the 20th. Wire please. FILM ACTRESS tried two turns on the grass in her debut which is tough but then her saddle slipped so forget it. Her recent dirt mile try was solid. She is bred to love the grass. WEST PRINCESS is a little better since coming here and now goes third off the layoff. This barn is 27% on the grass. HAPPY MAGGIE is by a 13% debut turf sire. Her dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green and this is her first grass foal. UH OH SEVEN is by a new turf sire. Her dam went 8-2-3-3 on the sod and banked 122K. Lone sib to try the turf is 2-0-0-0 (7-00-0 in career). RYAN’S STAR is by a 13% debut sire (same sire as rail runner). Her dam missed the board in both turf starts and this is her first grass foal. LORANAN is by a 12% debut sire and a 9% debut turf sire. Her dam went 5-1-1-0 for 32K (no turf). Of 5 sibs to start, 4 won (1 of 2 on the weeds). HAPPY PILL is by a 0 for 2 debut turf sire. Her dam went 11-2-1-1 for 44K on the green. Of 5 sibs to try the grass, 3 won with another hitting the board.

SECOND RACE

CYCLOTRICK is by a 13% debut sire. Her dam went 4-1-0-0 for 16K. Of 7 sibs to race, 5 won and 2 earned more than 100K. This barn is very good with maiden claimers just not debut maiden claimers but that sample size is small at 9. We think this filly will be overlooked on the tote. JOSIE TREASURE is by a 1 for 3 debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Lone sib is 12-0-2-4 for 8K. We like it when Stevens rides for Treasure as we have seen some live firsters before. DREAMING EZ showed speed in her first three starts but then came from off the pace in her most recent. We like it when young horses do something different. LU LU GIRL is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 2-1-0-0 for 4K (won 2YO debut). This is her first foal.

THIRD RACE

CAYMUS RESERVE broke dead last in her debut but then won nicely by a length at 10-1. She catches a race over loaded with speed. Any kind of second out improvement will make her tough. LITTLE SISTER DON’ T U did beat special weight sin her debut at Canterbury and the racing there is better than here. A Beyer top only two back and now she returns to that distance. FOGGIA is speed between other speeds. Not a good place to be. Let’s see if she is just too good for these and as the chalk.

FOURTH RACE

CHRISTMAS CABALLO ran OK off the claim when first out for Diodoro but that try was on the dirt and we suspect that isn’t his best surface. This gelding loves this sod and draws well for a stalking trip while saving all the early ground. WHY FRANK is the other Diodoro runner and this one also goes second time with his new barn. Forget the short layoff as the turf course was closed during that time. This gelding always gets a ton of play but is also getting up there in age at 9. MOST DETERMINED ran a Beyer top only two back. We can look past his dirt debut last out. It is nice to see win rider return in Stevens.

FIFTH RACE

MAKE AMERICA GR TAG IN is by a 11% debut sire. His dam went 54-12-10-13 for 300K. Of 8 sibs to race, 7 won and 6 beat winners. This colt only cost 2K so today’s placement makes sense. We don’t see this barn use Mosqueira ever. Insurance to avoid a claim? Here comes a good price, right? ALTERED CARBON ran well in both career starts. He has tactical speed and catches a race light on front speed which should make for a good trip. TIGER MARK is the fresh face that goes for a barn that is 20% with new runners. MIDNITE DEPUTY is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 23-4-4-5 for 142K. Of 6 sibs to race, 4 won. This colt cost 17K and is running for below that.

SIXTH RACE

COLONEL GOTHAM is feeling good, has speed, draws inside again, and is bred to handle this mile

distance. The one to beat. Obviously. Can he put good races together though? TAX CREDIT will be a price. Those route tries at Remington two and three back were decent as was local debut last out. Race flow is OK. KING REZA did beat over half the field home two back when trying today’s distance. His recent dirt sprint was poor but maybe he didn’t like being stuck on the rail. This barn is 17% sprint to route.

SEVENTH RACE

WHAT WAS I THINKING beat a full field to break his maiden and did so at almost 15-1. Now he has a couple of local works to have him ready for his second start. He catches a wide open affair with plenty of pace to set up his late run. OLD TOY TRAIN ran a Beyer top only two back and then probably bounced last out. Mawing leaves for our top pick. This gelding can pass runners and that works with today’s possible fast pace. SOUL OF DISCRETION looked very good breaking his maiden as he got an 81 Beyer at Canterbury. Then he ran into a monstress in Amy’s Challenge (now 3 for 3 and just won a stakes at Oaklawn for Mac Robertson). Connections thought enough of this colt to try Santa Anita foes three back but it just didn’t work out. Golden Gate tries weren’t any better but maybe he didn’t like the fake dirt there. Notice that connections find him a spot where he can’t be claimed. Speed with other speed is a problem unless this colt has learned to stalk.

EIGHTH RACE

TRIBAL TRIBUTE might be an Old Good Horse Getting Better. You have to admit that recent confidence boost helps today. This gelding has always been better going long on the grass and we love how new connections waste little time finding that kinda race. FIFER is speed. He should find the front end here. For some reason, he is often a good price. MY STORY NMSTIKNTOIT gets Corbett back and this horse always responds to that rider.