ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, PACIFIC NIGHTS

FIRST RACE

BONITA BOSS ran well in his debut when breaking his maiden at a little over 4-1. Did you know that two of three sibs beat winners? They earned 49K and 44K which is quite good. We like how connections skip the $3,500 level for today’s $8,500. The rail draw is a small knock but trainer stats more than offset. RESPECT THE SHOT was knocked around on the grass last out so a return to a dirt sprint makes perfect sense. Those efforts 2 and 3 back were very good especially his effort versus first time winners where he blew the start from the rail. AUSSIE YOU LATER often gets play. He returns home today.

SECOND RACE

FIFER draws perfectly for a front end try. There isn’t much pace in here. That turf win four back fits nicely and notice that it was at today’s distance. For some reason, this speed horse is often a good price. I’VEGOTAFEELING is feeling great. We know that he can put good races together. If you said he was better on the grass, we couldn’t argue. The one to beat then. ARAQEEL has some back class. This is his third start on this sod. Form cycle hints at better. Main knock is that this barn is only 5% on the grass. Hey, maybe it helps today’s price.

THIRD RACE

PSYCHOTIC STORM has a nice even running style and that bodes well for today’s stretch-out. His dam went 7-1-2-0 when routing and earned 14K. Lone sibling never tried a route of ground. Distance Tomlinson is a solid 363. This gelding might get lost on the tote as neighbors take all the money. EIGHTY AND SUNNY just lost as the big chalk but does go second time this dirt. Second time with Diodoro can’t hurt either. LUCKY B. N. is another beaten favorite that goes second time this dirt. We just don’t see many Woodbine shippers here. A poor trip in his most recent but everyone can see that.

FOURTH RACE

JILAS LIL SWING has speed even if she didn’t show it off the layoff. Perhaps her being fractious while loading had something to do with it. Her two best efforts have come on this dirt. Added half furlong helps theft chances if indeed this mare finds her front speed. DESIGNATED ROYALTY has some decent figs of late. Her tactical speed should put her in a good spot turning for home. MY CINDERELLA has won five times on this dirt. That was a tough return distance last out but being walked off is obviously a knock. We do like that she returns without a layoff but with a recent work.

FIFTH RACE

PACIFIC NIGHTS has always loved this turf but until his most recent he just didn’t look like his old self. That changed last out at 9-1. We thought his two return tries were sneaky good and that’s why we picked him on top previously. He had to catch a lone front runner to win (that horse runs back today in the last race). Hernandez is the perfect jockey for this closer. This gelding didn’t get any pace help last out but still won. Today’s pace is just better. We know that this guy can put good races together. GUNSLINGER is feeling great. His last turf start has fallen off the page. That doesn’t change the fact that he is bred to like the weeds. He has tactical speed to help with his trip. BLACKFORD ran well on this sod only 2 and 3 back. He could try to steal this for sure. He is often a good price.

SIXTH RACE

PALLASGREEN ran great in her debut even though she was trying a flat mile and drew furthest outside. Lone sib is by Exchange Rate and is 4-1-0-1 for 26K. The Phil Hall barn is deadly on the turn back at 43%. We love that recent work. WALK AWAY is another that ran well in her debut. Two of three sibs beat winners (36K and 39K). We like that this filly draws outside main pace foes. As always, we like seeing a recent work. BLACK STORM RISING has lost two in a row as the chalk. Race flow is OK and she has a recent work. Those 59 Beyers from 2 and 3 back will again attract a lot of mutuel attention. BONITA ANNIE is by a 1 for 8 debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. One of two sibs won (2 for 5: 16K). WHISTLING ROSE is by a 0 for 12 debut sire. Her dam went 13-2-3-2 for

80K (nice). Of 7 sibs to race, 5 won with 4 having beat winners. ALLIE GALE needs to gun, gun, gun, and then gun some more. She gets in light and catches a race light on pace therefore a theft in on the agenda. A good price if our crystal ball is correct. MADAME CLOUET has route speed on the cut back. We doubt she will show front speed but a stalking trip is possible. VADVADA has never missed the show on this dirt. She also hasn’t won on this dirt. Race flow or lack thereof works against.

EIGHTH RACE

RALLY CAP RUDY just missed stealing a race last out when first on the turf. His turf breeding is actually quite good. The winner, Pacific Nights, runs in today’s fifth race and we think he is coming around. This race doesn’t have much speed so this gelding could clear off again. Many a runner improves the second time they do anything. The Phil Hall barn is having a great meet. We love the fact that this horse has a recent work. LAUDY is better of late and is capable on the grass even if yet to win on said surface. The Kauffmann barn is 25% on the weeds. BIM BAM is an 11YO. He keeps cashing those checks. That 72 turf figure from two back certainly fits here.