ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, THE GREAT SCATSBY

FIRST RACE

ULTIMATE CAUSE returns to the conditioned claiming ranks after failing to keep pace with starter runners with difficult trips in her last two that cost her chances to earn minor awards. Two back she was impeded inside the sixteenth pole (though wasn’t going to win) and last time was unsettled when the gate sprung, causing her to be too far off a slow pace. SUN OF TARA won a $20,000 N2L claimer Dec. 28 with a smooth trip, drafting behind runners and finding room without difficulty on the outside at the top of the stretch; was claimed by a sharp owner in Michael Dubb, though this one is now moving up in claiming price and also going u[ into the N3L ranks. BELIEVE IN ANGELS was beaten less than 4 lengths against far better starter runners Jan. 15, though never a factor at any stage; far better suited to this spot than she was in her last race when 49-1; runnerup from her latest came back to win a first-level allowance.

SECOND RACE

TRANSISTOR, second or third in four straight, catches a suspect group of maiden claimers and should pick up his first win. JAIL HOUSE disappointed with a sixth Jan. 15 after a far more promising third in the slop Jan. 3, but at least is lightly raced and eligible to move forward; should offer more value this time around, particularly with popular leading jock Luis Saez moving on to ride AGUJERO. The latter is the second most accomplished runner in the field behind TRANSISTOR but the exacta underneath that rival will likely be overbet.

THIRD RACE

A turf horse for most of his career, EL CICLON has somewhat surprisingly transitioned effectively to the main track here this winter with a win and a fourth in two such starts. Both of those races came vs. fields stronger than today’s lineup, though the $6,250 claiming price remains the same. BAMA BOUND has underachieved relative to his odds in his last pair for this tag, running fourth as the favorite Dec. 23 and then eighth behind the top choice at 7-2 on Jan. 7. Still, he has notched 15 main track victories over his 64-race career and should be respected. BROWNS GAP also ran behind EL CICLON most recently, finishing sixth behind that rival, beaten 7 1/2 lengths; nice draw in post two and speedy enough to secure a position on or near the lead.

FOURTH RACE

Picking first timers 1-2-3 in this maiden field due to the prior starters not distinguishing themselves... MATERIUM has pedigree power, by Street Cry out of a stakes-winning dam, and has shown zip in works at Palm Meadows; edge despite a rail draw, a position from which many first timers break a little slowly. MI CHIQUITA sold for $140,000 at OBS last year and is a half-sister to Grade 3 Gallant Bob winner Trouble Kid; debuts for a dangerous first out barn, though her works don’t leap out to the same extent as those from MATERIUM or even DIXIELICIOUS. The latter, by sprinter Midnight Lute, has gone five eighths a number of times in the mornings and seems to have the foundation to threaten at first asking.

FIFTH RACE

HONEY HEARTS was keen and hung three wide when stretched out to 7 1/2 furlongs on the grass last out, and not surprisingly faded to sixth; better suited to sprinting on the lawn, and particularly to facing weak maiden claimers like today’s cast. JUBILANT is untested on the grass but has respectable dirt form; factor if she merely replicates those performances on the lawn. PROSPECTIVE MOMENT was outrun in one prior turf attempt last summer, but has improved since that turf start to

earn minor awards in some recent starts; addition of blinkers may help to keep her a bit closer early.

SIXTH RACE

THE GREAT SCATSBY and BATTLE OF BLENHEIM are uncoupled stablemates from the Eclipse Award-winning barn of Chad Brown, by far the leading money earning turf trainer in North America in recent years. THE GREAT SCATSBY has never raced, but his works suggest promise and he sold well at auction a couple years ago for $500,000. As for BATTLE OF BLENHEIM, he has the benefit of experience and a rail draw going 7 1/2 furlongs on the lawn, but felt he underachieved a little last time when second with a perfect trip Dec. 15. He looked like a winner at the top of the lane and was outkicked. DADDY’S COZY has a third and fourth in two grass starts after a non-effort when unveiled on dirt at Laurel; a length behind BATTLE OF BLENHEIM in a mid-December meeting.

SEVENTH RACE

PLATINUM PRINCE chased some of the top sprinters on the grounds when fourth in stakes company Jan. 1 and gets needed class relief to go in this optional claimer; speedy enough to secure a good position early. SUPER SPENDER, on the other hand, lacks speed, which can put a grass sprinter in a bind; therefore more likely to settle for a minor award than to win. LITTLE CHESNEY ran a respectable fifth in a turf stake at Tampa recently after a narrow win on this course Dec. 5 vs. first-level allowance company.

EIGHTH RACE

9-2 shot VENEZUELAN FOREVER is dropped from starter to claiming company after a better-thanlooked fourth with a wide trip Jan. 19; much improved form with blinkers over her last two races. GATOR GIRL was hustled out to the lead in a Jan. 21 maiden $20,000 claimer and after going what seemed a lively opening quarter, was able to coast down the backstretch and kick away from the opposition in the lane; may attempt to steal this one, too. GUIDONIA was no factor in her lone start vs. winners but starts for a winning barn and is favorably drawn on the inside with a short run to the first turn in this 7 1/2-furlong grass race.

NINTH RACE

LITTLE MATT, pegged at 5-1 on the morning line, fits against $6,250 claiming opposition and has a winning jockey/trainer combination in Jaramillo and Barboza - who are 33% together at Gulfstream in 2017-2018 with a $2.45 ROI; tactical speed to get a good trip. HANGRY rallied to finish a close second Jan. 21, though a slow final split by the leaders exaggerated hiskick; 30-2-6-5 record over his career suggests he is better used underneath in the gimmicks than in the win pool. WOODBURN is fittingly dropped in class after a couple of recent sixths; proved a regular factor in conditioned claiming races for this $6,250 tag last year.

TENTH RACE

CAPTAIN CAROL was hung wide from a terrible post when fourth Jan. 21, performing well under the circumstances to lost by just 3 1/4 lengths; swished her tail every time she was whipped and might respond better to merely an aggressive hand ride; certainly drawn better in post 5. KEG STAND could improve second out with experience and blinkers, though she certainly needs to move forward to win after running eighth of 10 at Tampa, albeit in the straight maiden ranks there. Morning-line favorite ORDER IN finished a length and a quarter in front of the top choice when second Jan. 21, but she drew post 1 that day and post 11 in this spot.