ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, LUNA’S KEY

FIRST RACE

FUZZY IRISH RASCAL drops in class after facing better in each of his two starts at the meet, and though he was off the board in that last one he was behind a controlled pace there; Beyers fit nicely. GRAND PRIMPI is at the lowest level of his short career and he’s going to be the favorite based on that last figure; that January 26th race has already yielded a winner. TORNERO’s dam posted her lone win in a dirt sprint; meets a seemingly average group for his debut.

SECOND RACE

ZIPI ZAPE was behind a wire-to-wire winner in that last one yet he closed well to get the show; the pace should be more to his advantage today, with a couple of speeds to his inside, and he should be able to make some noise late. CALEB’S COMET was caught up in a duel in that last one but he can also rate if need be; Beyers put him right in the middle of this. REVOLT was a sharp winner in his last try on the main track; switches from the turf, and the main has strong stats with this move.

THIRD RACE

LA FEMME ROYALE gave way after setting a pressured pace in her first and only start on the grass but she may be able to shake loose and control the pace this time around; dangerous if she can in fact get loose and back down the fractions. OUTRANK had trouble two back but she came back and ran a strong race with Lasix added for the first time in her latest; tactical speed a big plus. J C’S PROUD KITTEN has won two straight, including at this same level in her latest; should be rolling late.

FOURTH RACE

SUNSET CATCH is wide but he could be the deceptive clear speed in this seemingly paceless race; Gulfstream shipper should find the locals more to his liking, especially given a pace advantage. CHARLIE RIFFIC could be the main threat in the lane; he just missed last time with a favorable set-up after running against the race flow in his first two starts of the meet. INCREDIBLE CUT doesn’t look like a big threat here on paper but the fact is he was rolling through the back of the field last time after racing too far back early on; extra distance could move him up and he’ll be a huge price.

FIFTH RACE

LUNA’S KEY was too late in her last couple of runs but she rallied especially well in that sprint at seven furlongs too back; most recent try may have been too short for her but she stands to improve today given a better pace set-up. PINK MAMA is the one to beat based on her most recent form, as she couldn’t really be more consistent than she’s been going back to 2016; handles dirt or turf, and has the ability to lead or rate. PARTAY doesn’t have the best of win percentages, and her lone try against winners came when she was loose on the lead at Fairmount, but she fits here based on her best figures.

SIXTH RACE

DYNASHE failed her turf test last time but she has room to move way up today on the switch back to the main track, which certainly seems to be her preferred surface, if that last run is any indication; tactical speed should ensure she works out a good trip right off the pace. PUSHY GIRL also returns to the main track after failed turf tries; she’s a closer but given enough pace help and a clean trip from the rail she’s capable of making the last run. GOTTA GO GO GO weakened when forced to come from off the pace last time following a slow start but she can rebound with a clean start, as she figures to be a factor from the start.

SEVENTH RACE

ASTUTE WARRIOR has the speed to stay close but he can also rate, and that versatility should enable jockey Orlando Bocachica to work out a favorable trip from just off the pace, given his inside post; price should be decent despite the barn’s otherworldly 54% win rate with new faces. GAME LAD is widest but he is certainly quick enough to get into the game from the start, and given the relative lack of speed in this field that’s an edge; layoff main concern given the short price. SMOKINWATCHSTOPPER has consistent figures and early speed and he should be involved from the start under Dean Butler.

EIGHTH RACE

SHE’LL FLY AWAY drops in for a tag in her first start off the layoff, which can be viewed as a negative, but the reality is this may be the best level for her; barn wins at a solid rate with horses moving from turf to dirt and she should be a decent price. MAMMA WHITE SOCKS is kin to seven winners, including nine-time winner Three O’Clock Rock; dam was best on turf but this filly sports some main track breezes that hint at some ability. EXCLUSIVE EXPRESS is the one to catch and beat after a solid 2nd in her bow; wide post, short price and suspicious drop make her one to try to beat, however, at least on the win end.

NINTH RACE

LASER FOCUS was rained off the grass in each of his last three, and though he broke his maiden on the main track two back his better figures have come on the green; that lone win came with the aid of a favorable race flow, as he rallied in a race where the closers held the edge, but he also has some early zip. SONG MAGNIFICO stretches out and adds blinkers, and that combination strongly implies he’ll be looking for the lead; inside post helps in that regard, and if he is able to get clear easily enough he could prove tough to catch. FAST FLYING FRED fits well enough here based on his best figures.