ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

A chance of rain in forecast Tuesday but not likely to have an impact on turf racing Wednesday although by some chance it does, TREV obviously well spotted should the opener move to the main. If not, stabbing at SMALL FORTUNE in a race full of contenders going back to sod and shortening up to what appears his preferred distance. CAPTAIN GAUGHEN showing no published works at press time since his last outing back on Oct. 1 which is not really a surprise from this barn. Class of the field although perhaps a bit suspect on the drop to cheapest level yet.

SECOND RACE

CATSADIVA second best last out to a horse who has won 25 of 40 career starts, missed a nose to My Sweet Dove, a winner of 4 of her last 9, in GPW finale. Not facing that kind in this $30K conditioned claimer. PANCAKE drops into the category for the first time, certainly off form against much better in all recent starts but should find this group more to her liking. Looked okay in recent half-mile breeze. MY COTTON ROSE lost best chance at the break following easy N2L win two back. Taken to grab minor share.

THIRD RACE

Question marks abound with several new faces in the lineup beginning again with Servis barn and CRYSTAL CLEAR who has nothing on published tab since Jan. 9 when entered but from barn which usually places their new faces for instant success at the maiden claiming level. FROZEN QUEEN obviously overmatched at first asking, gets one chance to prove mettle in this soft looking spot.LISA MILA has shown speed against better in all recent tries, might get brave if able to get loose early for this tag.

FOURTH RACE

PEACE FRONT found proper niche while also improving with blinkers added on graduation day and well spotted to score right back dropping in price for first venture in the conditioned claiming ranks. BODIE’S VALENTINE another coming off maiden win rallying from far back to pass entire field at Kentucky Downs and another placed to win right back at this level. CONGRATS IN BLUE and Elasticity both exiting maiden wins of their own vs. much cheaper but respect the fact they are young horses capable of moving forward again with experience.

FIFTH RACE

When last sighted, ADMIRAL JIMMY was racing in stakes company now returns off long layoff for a $12,500 tag raising plenty of red flags although barn has had considerable success with similarly large drop downs all winter long. Last couple of works leading up to return decent enough to suggest he might just have enough in the tank to assert class edge today. ADMIRABLE KISS strictly the one to beat if preferred choice not up to the task exiting pair of runaway wins in January although do note Saez runs from that one to take call for Pletcher on preferred choice. NEW CHAMPION ran against grain of the track when tiring third behind A K in their previous encounter and main certainly favored speed types here last weekend.

SIXTH RACE

MITCHELL ROAD hard to ignore coming off game but heartbreaking defeat at first asking and has been given ample time to recuperate from the taxing effort. Still must handle a couple of interesting looking Chad Brown first timers in EQUAL RIGHTS and INCONVENIENT FACTS, the latter getting the best of their team drill, albeit just slightly on Feb. 9.

SEVENTH RACE

BUN BUN no match late for class dropping Stormbeam who plunged from $12,500 company to win this condition on 1/31. Fell victim to in form He Wears the Crown 2 back, the latter flattering effort beating open $8K company in her next start. Obviously knocking on door at this level although facing a couple of dangerous looking class droppers BULLET THEBLUE SKY and ITALIAN SMILE, the former having raced exclusively to this point on turf and artificial surfaces.

EIGHTH RACE

READY FOR SUMMER gets slight nod on the drop to this level after having run well vs. open $25K company two back in New York and vs. tougher bunch of optional claimers making local bow last month. AUGUST LILLY continues to hold her form extremely well, has been in the exacta in 7 of 14 starts over this course and 8 of 12 at 7 1/2 furlongs to a mile on turf. STORMIN CHARLOTTE continues to prove very competitive at this level but a bit of a hanging sort of late.

NINTH RACE

SOUTH OF THE SHORE, the day’s best, could not match strides late with recent Suncoast Stakes winner C S Incharge in 3yo bow, caught another good one in Fly So High in career bow. Ready to graduate at third asking. SKEPTIC has been away three months after out running her odds, coming out second best behind odds on Red Ruby in Ky finale. One to beat. COMMENTARY a good second behind 2-1 Ten Demerits debuting at Tampa but might be facing a bit stronger moving locally for 2nd try.

TENTH RACE

BITACORA exits career best effort when not badly beaten by a pretty good group in the Sunshine Millions Turf, need only repeat effort to get back on winning track in the main event. O. K. KAY win less in 11 months but back with state breds today. One to beat should top one falter. STEELIN MAGNOLIAS was visually impressive overcoming slow start, wide trip to beat weak bunch at first asking but adding Lasix for step up to this company. Might have enough of a forward move off that effort to impact the gimmicks.

ELEVENTH RACE

TENDOWNINGSTREET left with a bit too much to do when 3rd of 9 vs. $50K maidens to launch his 4yo campaign now well spotted to earn elusive diploma in finale. WIGWAM SUMMER checked early, got caught off slow pace last time after career best effort two back vs. similar. Improving sort gets major rider change with Ortiz taking call from the triple bug rider. CRIME DOG looks like a horse who may be ready for best yet making third start of his current form cycle.