ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, PROLETARIAT

FIRST RACE

CHRISTMAS SKY was solid winning her first two starts over this distance, and she improved while up in class off the claim despite proving to be no match for a streaking Reckless Humor; potentially has some other pace to deal with in this spot, but she may be fastest early. HEXAMETER kept close to CHRISTMAS SKY on the early lead before tiring last time, but that was a race she was eligible to have needed off the layoff; distance remains a question for her. FOR HONOR has won two in a row easily while facing overmatched rivals in both cases, including that last one off the claim here last Thursday; was a suspect drop in just her second start as a 3yo, but she did begin with some potential.

SECOND RACE

PROLETARIAT has had the most dirt chances in this three-life claimer, but he is better than his overall record indicates, and he ran very well off the layoff while contesting a fast pace from the outside, on a day when the inside was strong; managed only three starts last year, but he ran well in all of them, and like that he is drawn outside once again. FILLET OF SOLE’s lack of early speed is a drawback, and his win off the layoff at Gulfstream wasn’t exactly a thing of beauty, but he is supposed to be competitive with this class-drop in a race that does contain some speed. IMASUPERSTAR’s three starts since returning from the layoff haven’t been up to the level he was racing at in NY as a 3yo and into the early part of last year, but he has dangerous speed on the drop. Wasn’t surprising to find LUCKY TOWN improving enough off the Rudy claim to prevail in his return to dirt last time, but he did spend most of that race in a perfect trip in behind the lead on a day when you had to be up close to be effective.

THIRD RACE

It’s not as though the well-bred HOLLAND PARK doesn’t have something to prove at this stage, but he ran pretty well first time out while chasing the speed in a short field, and he was wide last time while bumping into a front-running winner who really improved to win that race with an 89 Beyer; don’t see the interesting alternative to him in this spot. AMERICAN LINCOLN didn’t do much to inspire on turf in his first three starts, and he came wide to land a piece in a weak field while making his main track debut at the end of 2017; may not have to do much better to leave with something as he makes his 3yo debut. CURLIN’S NEW MOON and WHYAMISOLUCKY step back up after trying to chase down a heavily-favored front-running winner for a $50k tag last time; the former came up just short there with a game late run, while the latter also closed ground from further back.

FOURTH RACE

BON HEIR showed surprising early speed to wire a field with a solid figure three starts back, then tried rating in her next start to no avail; turns back after taking a game run to the lead before flattening out last time over a mile. DA WILDCAT GIRL faced much tougher last week off the re-claim for a trainer she has enjoyed success with in the past, and she couldn’t make a late impression there despite having a competitive pace in front of her; can improve as she cuts in half on a quick turnaround. SOXY RUBY had a trip over a wet track in her first start for these connections, and she came right back to post an easy score with a new top figure in her next start; faces a couple of potentially tougher rivals here, though it’s not a given that they can show up with their best races here.

FIFTH RACE

WESTWOOD rode the best part of the track en route to a 105 Beyer win in his 4yo debut, but he was never letting that field into the race in what was just another step in his rapid development since overcoming his early gate issues; well-bred 4yo keeps improving, though he does have a rival with speed drawn to his inside. That rival is STILL KRZ, who is capable of the kind of fast race that would make him tough for WESTWOOD to deal with; good effort off the Servis re-claim last time while dueling the pace in front of the talented Skyler’s Scramjet. SPARTIATIS ran the two best races of his career while posting back-to-back wins early last year, including a graded stakes in the Tom Fool, and then went off form for the summer before getting a layoff; starts back with a trainer change to Rudy, who doesn’t have great numbers with dirt sprinters off of this kind of break.

SIXTH RACE

SEETHISQUICK has faced much better horses than this along the way and has acquitted himself well in some of those races despite finding that level of competition too tough; finally dropping into a more logical spot after enduring a tough trip last time in a race that is not as disappointing as it may look on paper. GO BIG OR GO HOME was in for half this price while making his main track debut last month, but he battled gamely all the way to the wire in that spot, despite being on the outside on a day when the rail was an advantage; 78 Beyer suggests that he will be tough even as he steps up in class. STRONG SIDE has mostly concentrated on turf throughout his career, but he has run well on dirt on occasion; big class drop after facing a pair of tough rivals in a scheduled dirt race last time.

SEVENTH RACE

TURCO BRAVO appears to have worked his way back into form off the claim after losing his way a bit for his prior connections, as he just missed pulling off an upset in the Temperance Hill, before running well with some trouble in the Claiming Crown; was never winning the Jazil vs. only three others last time, but he raced on gamely while against the track, and this longer distance helps him more than it does the others. RUN FOR JAMES has so far only been effective when able to make the early lead, something that he projects to be able to accomplish in this race; distance an obvious concern for him. TESTOSTERSTONE capable of a race that would give him a big chance in here, but he is another who is a big question mark over this kind of distance.

EIGHTH RACE

GROTON ST SCOUT ran well in several races over the inner dirt last winter prior to breaking through with a maiden win, and she carried that form all the way through to the end of the year, though without managing another victory; like the trainer change to Eddie Barker, and think the overdue layoff may have done this horse some good. SPINYATTA won his last two dirt sprints in California before shipping into Rudy’s barn and thought she ran well in her NY debut despite proving to be no match for a much improved Leah’s Dream, who came back to win for the third straight time here last week. ASIAN’S WAY starting back from a layoff, but has mostly kept better company since arriving in NY, and she has consistently earned figures that would make her tough in this kind of race; forget her last race where she stumbled badly at the start.