ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, FINAL CHAPTER

FIRST RACE

STRING SECTION enters with a big edge on figures as he takes on only four others while trying the mile for the first time; bred to handle the distance, and it’s not that easy to make cases for the others unless you have faith in the firster. MERCURIAN makes her debut for Linda Rice, who has been having success with first-time starters recently; Flatter filly is a half to four multiple winners from this dam. MO FLASH picked up a couple of checks in slow races on turf and synthetic as a 2yo and she didn’t get much faster in her dirt debut last time, though it’s worth pointing out that she was four-wide against a gold rail for that entire trip; needs to get faster.

SECOND RACE

TRUTH IN THE LIES has much better recent form on turf, but she has proven to be effective on dirt in the past, and she ran much better than it looks last time after breaking on her face and then trying to sweep into contention with a wide run off the turn on a day when the rail was carrying horses to victory; projects for a good trip up close, assuming she breaks this time. CRIMSON FROST the horse to beat dropping out of Laurel stakes where she raced wide and tired behind a front-running winner; form since arriving in NY has mostly been solid in some tougher spots. FULL HOUSE has been most effective right up on the pace, so far, which is the trip she got last time when dominating entry-level allowance rivals as the favorite; has a stretch out sprinter drawn to her outside, but there isn’t otherwise much pace in this race.

THIRD RACE

EMPIRE LINE and EVALUATOR hit the wire together in last month’s Damon Runyon over this track and trip, with EMPIRE LINE holding on for a narrow victory. Will give him some extra credit for racing closer to the pace in what was only his second career start, while stretching out from six to eight furlongs, and like that Johnny V. is in to ride. EVALUATOR had a perfect setup when narrowly closing down a fast and contested pace in his dirt debut last October, but he backed that race up pretty well to just miss to EMPIRE LINE off the layoff; suspect the blinkers go on due to his trying to get a bit in the stretch last time, and presence of stretch out sprinter NINE ROUTE seems to ensure some pace for him once again. NINE ROUTE really improved while dominating maidens after a poor start in his main track debut, and he ran a lot better than it may appear last time while contesting a fast pace all the way and holding on; stretches out with speed and ability.

FOURTH RACE

DEAD BROKE (note that he has raced as a gelding throughout his career) debuted in a tough spot behind subsequent multiple stakes winner Soutache and multiple stakes-placed Pony Up, and he then chased wide in his second start before trying the mile prior to the layoff; starts back on the drop for a trainer who has good numbers first off the trainer change: past four years, 20%, $2.42 ROI. BLINDED VISION did some hard work racing off a favorite in his career debut before just failing to hold a stretch lead, then tried a tougher spot in his second start to no avail; didn’t think he ran as well last time when failing to find enough as the favorite, but the runner-up from that race did come back to win with a 78 Beyer. THE CHAMO ran well while just missing to an odds-on favorite first time out, and he can have a pass for his NY debut where something appeared to amiss with his rider just sitting chilly while allowing him to fall out of contention; returned from the layoff to chase from the rail in that faster race won by I’m an Ocala Dude, now moves to the outside.

FIFTH RACE

FINAL CHAPTER got good off the trainer change last year to win two of four starts on dirt, and then acquit himself well in stakes company; backclasser returns to a more appropriate level after facing tougher in his first two starts back from the layoff, including that last one where, as opposed to

having to be on the rial (which he was), it seemed to be more important to be up close to the pace (which he wasn’t). HEAVEN’S RUNWAY tough to trust returning for the $25k tag off layoff spanning exactly a year, especially considering the form he was in when last seen, but he will easily handle this field with his good race. Like MORNING BUZZ cutting back and dropping a bit for his second start off the layoff and he projects for a nice trip up close from his outside draw; found just enough to prevail on the wire two back.

SIXTH RACE

MISS SIZZLE raced greenly first-time out and failed to make a serious run into that race, then showed much-improved speed in her second start vs. a strong field; drop off the layoff doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence but will take her speed in this field. IMPAZIBLE CREEK came up empty in disappointing effort off the layoff last time, but she ran pretty well in her career debut, before catching a sloppy track second time out; class drop helps her. MAGARI had a nice trip chasing from the rail but was no match for MSW rivals first time out; drops right away with the top last out figure in the field.

SEVENTH RACE

SIR ALFRED won his lone start for a tag as a 4yo before enduring an extended layoff, and he ran quite well in his first start back while forced to race a much improved Toohottoevenspeak for a long way before they both succumbed to a perfectly-ridden winner; threat to go forward off the claim with that one behind him. CONQUEST EXPRESSO dominated two-life claimers in a muchimproved performance two starts back, and he did his best while chasing a strong winner who never gave him a chance last time; like the cut back. TERRY O GERI no great shakes, but he is a solid NY-bred dropping in class for the first time, and he is consistent. THEORY never panned out after a promising start, and in retrospect rushing him back to make the Futurity as a springboard to the Breeders’ Cup as a 2yo was probably detrimental to his career; either way, while he may simply be better than these horses, he is tough to take at any short price as he is given up on by top connections following a dismal effort off the layoff.

EIGHTH RACE

Not sure what we’re going to get from STARTWITHSILVER as she steps up to stakes company for the first time, but hard not to be impressed with the stretch run she put in in her return to dirt last time after dropping out of contention early; she often disappointed on turf in her career, but she did really run when ridden out in her main track debut, and she made only one other start on dirt after that before concentrating on grass. PICCO UNO has won five of her last seven starts sprinting on dirt, and she matched her career top Beyer when coming away second-best to an in-form Quezon last time; horse to beat can make her own trip. FROSTY MARGARITA has never broken through with that fast race, but she has always held her own in this kind of company and she is back to a better distance here after trying to go long in her last two starts.

NINTH RACE

ANYTHING PAZIBLE dropping for the first time for a sharp trainer and turning back in a race where he is supposed to be tough; faced some much better horses on dirt so far. COMEONCOMEONCAT caught a sloppy track first time out and he was wide trying to go with the leaders early last time on a day when speed and the inside seemed to get better as the day went on; threat on the drop. PEQUENO GRANDE making main track debut while dropping in class off the layoff for Rudy; thought his debut was okay, and he has enough pedigree to make this surface switch.