ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SCARY NOT SCARED

FIRST RACE

Maybe GOTHAM NEWS can’t be as effective around two turns here as he has (relatively) around one, but do know he finished with good energy last time making first start for new barn on new circuit. MAX JAMES is a Laurel unknown, but he was third, then won, in his two starts since being dropped down into $5K conditioned claimers. LOVE AND CARE another horse with no LRL main-track experience, which is a concern, but he’s one of two apparent main pace players and is drawn outside his speed rival, a plus.

SECOND RACE

TAKE WARNING has been competitive in a lot of starts for a $50K tag, then had a very rough trip last out on barn change and drop down to this $25K claiming class, still finishing a close fourth. Better luck could get him home for second win. JOVIS holds steady for $25K tag after making the jump from maidens to winners and still racing effectively for the price. Versatile style and tactical pace help. OLD DUDE won last out when raised in class after claim, and is up another $10K in price for high-percentage outfit. Would be back on just eight days rest.

THIRD RACE

MIKES MUSCLE MAN moved from Fla. to MD and stretched from a bunch of sprints to a route last time, and though he’s by a sprint sire, he stayed on well in that two-turn race for a solid enough third at this level. Given a bit of time and a recent work, and the cut back to a one-turn mile really should only help. WILDLY CLEVER was just a neck behind the top pick on Jan. 7 but while MMM trained, Clever raced twice more. Not sure where that leads, but both the recent starts were sprints, and this mile should better suit. MY PAL JERRY, who has kept a busy schedule this winter, ran a winning-type race Jan. 21 and lost, and might sink back after that peak.

FOURTH RACE

CHAPEL OF CHIMES and ASK ME I MIGHT possess similar front-running styles but nonetheless appear to be the prime players here, and though both move up from “beaten” $5K claiming to open, no one else looks an especially strong fit at the level given recent form. Neither C of C or Ask Me seems a run-off speed type, and they could easily go at a moderate pace and run one-two. C of C has been the sharper of the pair and shows a recent work. Z NATION would be one to benefit if a duel develops but has a lot of lengths to make up on Chimes based on their common last start.

FIFTH RACE

SWEET NOTION raced at higher class levels than this in his first two starts while at least showing a hint of ability, and now gets to put two races together without a break while dropped in for a $25K maiden-claiming tag. Seemingly greater upside than his more heavily raced rivals like ZAP CAT and MALIBU AT MIDNIGHT. The latter finished in front of the former to back but behind him last out, and it’s Zap Cat that seems at least the slightly more progressive of the pair.

SIXTH RACE

SCARY NOT SCARED has logged some pretty serious work since returning to Maryland from Florida. Facing lesser again now and her two starts from last fall look good enough for this spot. Blinkers back on and favorable outside draw. Considering AWESOME MARY’s mildly promising career debut on a fast track it seems a fair guess she just failed to handle an off track in her most recent start. Would not need major progress back on dry to challenge for top spot. MIMINEGASH speed figure nothing to write home about but beaten only by runaway winner while finishing in front of the other five in her lone start.

SEVENTH RACE

HER CAT WILL FOOL U lost all chance last out with a stumbling start, and two back was second to talented stakes winner Limited View while finishing in front of Deep Red, who would be second Dec. 9 in the $100K MD Juv Filly Championship. Well drawn on outside to prudently deploy her speed.

FRECHETTE for whatever reason was a no-show in the MD Juv Filly Championship — possible she was just badly overmatched. Looks like she might fit this spot but a little tough to tell since her solid debut came in an off-turf race, and her solid second-start MSW win came in mud. WHYYOUASK might not’ve enjoyed being stuck down inside her last two starts and could do marginally better.

EIGHTH RACE

GHOUL’S NIGHT OUT looks like a late-maturing sort that might’ve put problems behind him now to some extent. Blinkers added just two starts ago, and he’s only three races into the second phase of his career following a no-go last winter. Put together, seems like he might even be able to build on the last-start maiden win rather than taking a step back after hitting a peak. CONJECTURE will need to work out a trip from rail draw but is taking a lateral class move at most off very competitive showings in all four of her starts since being claimed. Drilled bullet 5f at LRL since last. SAZERAC GIRL just 2-32 wins but has a slew of 2nds and 3rds in spots similar to this.

NINTH RACE

SLICK MAN did pretty well Jan. 9 at Parx to lose by less than five lengths after a stumbling start from the rail. Took him out of his preferred style, and a return to his dirt form from last four starts puts him squarely in the hunt - though 5.5 furlongs looks a better trip. TOTALLY UNEXPECTED broke through in the slop last out, but he looks generally improved in his three starts this form cycle after moving from Woodbine synthetic to Laurel dirt. PAPACHO just didn’t show up at all last time but bounce back to form from two and three starts back gives him a chance. Can’t trust long layoff comebacker BOBCAT at a short price.