ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, TWO SWORDS

FIRST RACE

GRECIAN DANCER drops $10K in first start after a claim, which we obviously don’t like to see, but considering the MD-bred purse enhancements available, connections would come out ahead were she to win and be claimed. Only sprinted so far but bred to stretch out. And at least she’s a fresh horse in a race mainly populated with stock very recently races. Thought MILA JANE had no chance last time after falling out the back door early. She can clearly contend but the concerns are transferring form from one-turn mile to two turns and the chance of regression following a big effort. SHECOR got run over by Mila two back despite a better trip but at least is back at a better level after trying $25K last out.

SECOND RACE

The Claudio Gonzalez train been rolling again at LRL recently, and PACHI CRUZE cuts back to 5.5f from 7f, a favorable distance change. He was in tougher and might not have liked the mud when he ran poorly at this trip two back. LON’S TRUE PASSION back from two-month break after being claimed for this tag last out at PRX. No local races, which is not great, but he has been punching hard at this claiming class. HUNGER came way back from a dismal comeback run two back to beat slightly lesser last time. Rail draw dicey but excels at the short-sprint trip.

THIRD RACE

WRIGHTWOOD has a favorable outside draw and might have been edging back to his best with his decent Jan. 28 run. That was 7f, and he could stick closer to the pace stretched out furlong in this one-turn mile, the trip at which he might be most effective. GHAREEB might have moved a touch early in his most recent start and got run down late in the long stretch of the one-turn LRL mile. That was an open $5K claimer, this a conditions race, but that last one was a fairly sharp peak and he could well regress. MID OCEAN one of two entered here for same trainer, who might’ve been keen to make this race go for Ocean, who was claimed out of his most recent start and looks viable.

FOURTH RACE

On the one hand SAM SPARKLE ran a strong race to win following a layoff last time and could be susceptible to regression. On the other, Ness, who lost him before the break, re-claimed the horse and gives him a positive class hike. Will lean toward the glass-half-full interpretation. WISE MAC also claimed out of his last. Given some time, on a strong work pattern, and raised up in class first start for new connections. But raised too high? He’ll need to really step forward to win at this level based on all the recent form. WAR AND THUNDER is a 10yo but brings very solid CT form to this race, and at some point he compiled a good LRL record, though no recent local starts.

FIFTH RACE

NICHOLAS AND ME stretched out from sprints to a route last time, and held pretty well there for second, but despite turning back in trip he might be the controlling speed in a relatively paceless race, depending on how MOON OVER A BEAUTY comes back. Claimed for $40K four back and has been kept under starter-allowance conditions since. Been given a nice breather — and two drills - between starts. Can’t see it as a good thing that MOON OVER A BEAUTY returns for a $25K tag coming back from an extended layoff when his pre-break form would make her competitive in an N2X allowance right now at LRL. The barn does have strong stats in several pertinent categories, and he should be forward on a moderate pace. IN ARREARS’s most recent speed figure looks like an outlier, and in any case his career record makes him look more of an “under” horse.