Economic Model the Hal’s Hope play

It’s slim pickings on Saturday’s national stakes schedule, with only two Grade 3 races – the $150,000 Daytona at Santa Anita and the $100,000 Hal’s Hope at Gulfstream. Beyond that, you’ll find a few stakes for statebreds, a few with very short fields, and a few with both.

Hal’s Hope Stakes

Only eight were entered, but there is some depth to this one thanks to Irish War Cry, winner last year’s Wood Memorial and Holy Bull and runner-up in the Belmont Stakes; Malagacy, winner of last year’s Rebel; and Send It In, who earned a stunning 119 Beyer Speed Figure winning last year’s Excelsior.

I’m a fan of Irish War Cry. His Holy Bull last year was big, even if he got loose on a fairly easy early lead, and I was so impressed with the way he emphatically won the Wood Memorial while beating a strong track bias favoring speed that he was my pick in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Irish War Cry chucked it in the Derby after having perfect early striking position, but he ran well in the Belmont, saving ground all the way on a day when I thought the inside was not the place to be.

Unfortunately, Irish War Cry completed his 2017 campaign on a down note with weak efforts in the Haskell and Pennsylvania Derby. That, however, is not why I’m going against him Saturday.

I have great respect for trainer Graham Motion, who is having a tremendous Gulfstream meet, and I expect him to have Irish War Cry ready for a good effort first time back off a five-month break. My concern with Irish War Cry is he drew the rail in this one-turn mile and is subject to outside pace pressure from the stretch-out sprinter Quijote, Malagacy, and perhaps even Conquest Big E.

I think Irish War Cry may pull a tough trip in a comeback outing that is likely really meant to prepare him for bigger races down the road.

As for Malagacy and Send It In (who are both trained by Todd Pletcher, another having a big Gulfstream meet, as usual), I’ll try and beat them, too. Malagacy has had only five career starts, so he is still eligible to improve, but he just hasn’t earned a Beyer high enough yet to beat these horses. And I was left cold by his second at 3-5 in his recent return from a nine-month absence, being soundly beaten by a 26-1 turf sprinter and getting the place photo over a horse who came back to lose by more than 15 lengths in the Pelican Stakes at Tampa. Send It In, meanwhile, really blossomed at longer distances than this.

Economic Model is my play. Economic Model had a disappointing season last year at 4, but an allowance win most recently at Belmont going a one-turn mile like this was his best performance since some of his best races at 3 – a win in the Easy Goer, a fine second against a profound dead-rail bias in the Dwyer, and a game second in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop to champion Drefong – races that give him a real chance. I also like this aggressive race placement from trainer Chad Brown, yet another having a big Gulfstream meet.

Texas Glitter Stakes

Reed Kan earned this field’s best Beyer of 88 when he was a 21-1 winner of his first and only turf outing two starts back, but he might see higher quality pace pressure this time at Gulfstream in the form of Salmanazar and Shangroyal. I’m anticipating the pace to come back, and I like Barbarossa to pick up the pieces.

Barbarossa was a narrowly beaten second most recently going two turns, but the cutback to a turf sprint suits him. Barbarossa ran well in two one-turn turf races in New York prior to his last, including a solid maiden victory over New York breds.

Daytona Stakes

Stormy Liberal makes his first start since an unsuccessful trip to the Hong Kong Sprint, and first U.S. appearance since posting a 30-1 upset in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Stormy Liberal is accomplished in downhill races at Santa Anita like this and will be formidable, but I’m taking his uncoupled barnmate, Conquest Tsunami.

Conquest Tsunami recently made his first start for trainer Peter Miller on the downhill and won off in a career-best performance. He’s the main speed in this spot; wire to wire.