ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, ULTIMATE ENTICEMENT

FIRST RACE

JACQUELINE D has improved in recent starts and finally broke through with an easy maiden win last time while keeping close to the pace, then just taking over on the turn and going clear in the stretch; entered right back in a logical spot. WOUND WITH HER EYES was a non-factor as the favorite in the slop last time, but she was game two starts back before settling for 2nd after contesting the pace from the start; best figures have come on turf. FORRES LILY didn’t run well at this level last time while chasing a dominant winner all the way, but she did run a competitive race two back after making the early lead; mile a question for her.

SECOND RACE

Threat of a really wet track a concern for PERINA’S PRIDE, but don’t mind her stretching back out for this after just missing 2nd with a late surge behind a clear-cut winner in a fast race (83 Beyer for the winner) last time; distance no problem for mare who has posted two of her three career wins over a two-turn mile. MILAYA cutting in half for this after failing to be competitive for $20k off that game win two starts back; best races of late have come when able to be part of the pace, and she looks like the speed from the outside. ARE WE HAVING FUN YET brought good form into that race two back, where she never really got involved behind frontrunning MILAYA as the favorite; has the back races to make it closer with that rival, but she will have to rebound on a quick turnaround after tiring in the slop vs. some better horses here last week.

THIRD RACE

AUNT BABE chased wide and tired out readily in the stretch while trying the mile last time; caught a nice pace setup and was given a great ride when getting up to upset Stallion Series rivals two back, but she ran that day, and there is pace in this race to set her up once again. MY ROXY GIRL has rounded into form to win three of her last four while properly spotted; just managed to grind it out last time over seven furlongs, but she was very sharp in victory three starts back, and an effort like that one would give her a big chance in here. BEAUTIFUL BUZZ prevailed with a competitive figure in winning debut, and she was game while under pressure for a long way, before being closed down late last time; lightly-raced, but may have to chase this time with the fleet VELVET TRINNI drawn to the rail. TRINNI NINJA a maiden on the way in, but a threat nonetheless cutting back out of a decent try in the East View last time.

FOURTH RACE

TIZ SUPER chased wide and gave way in her first start off the claim, which came off a little layoff; at her best when able to make the early lead, and she may be faster than these horses early. CONNIE A the horse to beat taking a big class drop for Pletcher after getting outrun by a much better field of horses last time; has enough speed to keep close from the outside, as she did when breaking her maiden in the slop. DESERT AFFAIR seems an unlikely winner of this race, but she tends to pick up pieces at the end of her races, as she did last time when rallying into 2nd behind a dominant winner as the longest shot on the board; has finished in the money in 10 of her last 11 starts sprinting on dirt.

FIFTH RACE

KENYAN hasn’t run up to his best since returning from a layoff at the end of last year, but his effort two starts back wasn’t bad in a solid field for the level, and he didn’t have much chance in slow-paced sprint last time, despite getting an excellent trip from his rider; has the back races to compete with these horses at a price, and there should be some pace for him to run at this time. HARD HITTER dangerous off the claim for Rudy, though the five month layoff since he was taken out of that race last September is a concern; good effort two starts back for him when speeding clear on a strong pace at Saratoga. SALLISAW never panned out after a somewhat promising start, but he is another who can do better with a little pace

to close into, assuming he gets it here. VALYRIAN had much going for him last time while off the claim for a dangerous trainer and coming off an against-the-track trip on 12/16, and he was then lucky to be with the track when clearing to the early lead and then just holding off a hanging Adirondack Dream at the end; can win right back, but last time was the time.

SIXTH RACE

ARBITRATOR didn’t exactly hold his form off the claim when defeated as a heavy favorite last time, but he was more aggressively ridden in that race to keep up with the pace from the inside; prior two races from a stalking position led to better efforts and he could fall into that kind of trip once again in this field. BATTLE OF EVERMORE found a tough spot for his first start in over a year and tired after keeping close to a solid early pace; takes the plunge for his second start back, and he is clearly supposed to be tough here, assuming he can still run. PIRELLONE received a nice ride to take the lead from speed-type BLUEGRASS SINGER last time, and he kept going with his advantage to win clear in a race that did not feature any closing; now 4 for 5 in his career routing on dirt, and his trainer has been finding the right spots for all of his horses lately.

SEVENTH RACE

OUT OF ORBIT facing some potentially talented first-time starters in this race, but like the experience she gained first time out when getting away slowly from the gate and then making a wide run around the turn, before tiring in the stretch behind an winning entry-mate; eligible to take a big step forward in her second start. GABRIELLA the first foal from her dam, who went 1 for 8 in her career, but he second dam is the good sprinter Misty Rosette, and debuting for Pletcher is an obvious plus; nice post on the outside. Mark Hennig may not be Pletcher, but he has been on quite a run with his first-time starters lately, winning with 5 of the last six he has sent out on dirt ($10.61 ROI); his MARCH TWO MADNESS is drawn to the rail, but enters here with an improved work over the Belmont training track last week.

EIGHTH RACE

ULTIMATE ENTICEMENT didn’t fire in the Bongard when last seen, but something appears to have gone wrong in that race with a 155-day layoff following the run; first two starts in NY were both very promising runs, and he is a threat to rebound in this spot, which features plenty of pace, assuming he is back to his best. BELLEVILLE SPRING was aggressively ridden to hold his position at the rail last time before going on to a convincing win late over maidens, though he may have been on the best part of that track, which appeared to be favoring speed and the inside as the day went on; first two starts were both solid efforts from off the pace, which is a positive for him considering the potential pace-scenario, but a wet track would be a concern based on that poor showing two starts back in a slow race. ANALYZE THE ODDS one or two returning from a layoff and dropping in class for Pletcher; think he is the better of the two, though neither one is that interesting at any short price.

NINTH RACE

GYPSY JO may have been against the track when chasing from the outside two starts back, and while she had no excuse in that last one after a perfect trip, the winner of that race was a firster who looked pretty good, and a similar effort in this spot may be enough. AMANDA LANE appears to be better on turf, but her two main track starts have come vs. better; logical one to use as she drops in class with some speed off the bench. TOUGH OLD BIRD has already had nd her chances, but she tends to race on for a piece in her races; back quickly after landing in a pretty tough heat for the level here last Sunday.