ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, SAMBA INC

FIRST RACE

Although he finished third as the favorite, CONCUR actually ran well last out in his first on turf and first around two turns. He made the lead in midstretch, and got run over late. He ran like a horse that might have been one route-race away from top form. With that mile race under his belt, three solid works since, and a slower pace likely at this nine-furlong distance, CONCUR can make amends. MAJESTIC EAGLE returned from a short freshening with a solid runner-up comeback in his first try on turf. That was six and a half furlongs, he is bred for this two-turn trip. FIBONACCI finished in front of the top choice last out while improving significantly over his fourth-place debut last summer. First-time starter PHOENIX FIRE is a $1.25 million Tapit colt making his debut in a turf route.

SECOND RACE

ROSIE MY ROSIE won on grass here in fall, but the 8yo veteran seems more effective on dirt. She returns to dirt for this $16k claiming route, which is the lowest class level at which she has started. She has won more than her share (11 wins, 47 starts). GIFT OF A STAR is another 8yo pro that also has won on grass but might be more effective on dirt. Since returning from an extended layoff last summer, she has two wins and a second from three starts on the main track. ‘ROSIE and ‘STAR will roll late, while stretch-out sprinter LUCKY STUDENT will lead the field as far as she can. Yet another 8yo mare, she spent her entire career in sprints. She won both recent starts in front-running fashion, was claimed last out, and will lead the field as far as she can.

THIRD RACE

Not a fan of steep class droppers such as CLASSICO, but most in this field have one flaw or another. CLASSICO nosedives from $25k claiming to $10k for his second start following a layoff; he was recently gelded. Best of a suspect lot? HERE AND THERE wheels back in seven days, drops in class, moves from an inside post to post 5, and gets Joel Rosario. His third-place finish two starts back would be fast enough. BEAR SKINNED is another with a negative pattern, claimed for $20k two starts back, misfired last out, and now drops again. His third-place finish in November against better company is fast enough. FULL ACCESS returns to dirt and meets easier; CHROMIUM will roll late; TEMPLAR is speed on the rail. From that post, he must “go.” Puzzling race.

FOURTH RACE

CALCULATOR is 3-for-3 on the Santa Anita downhill turf; STORMY LIBERAL won four hillside stakes prior to his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar. Both are trained by Peter Miller; both are qualified to win this G3 turf sprint. CALCULATOR gets the call based on his fast-pace win last month in a restricted stakes on this course. His 20.85second opening quarter (downhill) is the fastest of the meet; he kept running and wired the field. The veteran gray can set the pace or rally from off; he gets a four-pound weight break over his stablemate. That is STORMY LIBERAL, the “class” of the field closing in on $1 million in earnings. Most ($814,700) of that total was earned after he was claimed for $40k in fall 2016. STORMY LIBERAL misfired last out as a high-odds longshot in Hong Kong; he apparently has trained well since returning home and he does love the hill. TOMBELAINE ran better than looked in his most recent start at Gulfstream Park. He was outrun early, finished fast between runners and galloped out with run. That race was only five furlongs; he may benefit from the extra distance of this six and a halffurlong race. CONQUEST TSUNAMI is the third Peter Miller entrant, up in class after a decisive N2X victory that was the fastest turf sprint of the meet (1:12.03). PERFECTLY MAJESTIC will roll

late; comebacker WHAT A VIEW is merely prepping; FABOZZI is another making his first start since last spring.

FIFTH RACE

This maiden-30 sprint for 3yo fillies is a split of race 6. MONDAYMORNINGBLUES drops from special-weight, she has speed and is the one to catch second start back from a layoff. COW DOG is a first-time starter with slow works, which is typical for a Steve Miyadi trainee. They occasionally run faster in the afternoon; Miyadi has a 13 percent win rate over the past four years with maiden-claiming firsters in Southern California. Due to slow works and corresponding high odds during that time, Miyadi debut maiden-claimers in So Cal produced a $2.50 return for each $2 win bet. ALLIE’S LOVE wheels back eight days after a disappointing third-place finish as the odds-on favorite vs. similar. She finished in the money three of four.

SIXTH RACE

This maiden-30 sprint for 3yo fillies is a split of race 5, with a similar selection. WAMPUS drops from special-weight, has speed, and looks like the one to beat second start in Southern California. Her dam is Peppers Pride, who won all 19 starts in the Southwest. As a broodmare, she has produced five named foals that have won a total of two maiden races. CONDI finished second at this class level last month. She has speed, and is making her second start following a layoff. ONASSIS drops from special-weight. Tough to gauge; in her only start she trailed throughout.

SEVENTH RACE

FOR GREATER GLORY won a turf route at this $20k claiming level two starts back; his midfield finish last out against better company was okay. Class drop, back to one mile, horse to beat in a deep field. CONQUEST DADDYO continues his class descent, while making third start back from a layoff. He will be rolling late. PREACHER ROE was a pace casualty last out; he tired to fourth after dueling through strong fractions. The thing is, he has run well from slightly off the pace. His strategy in this race will depend on the break, and tactics employed by front-runner CARDIAC.

EIGHTH RACE

KARMIC AFFINITY finished more than five lengths clear of third in her career debut last month, an effort that makes her the one to beat returning at the same Cal-bred maiden special-weight level. MADAM SOPHIA is a half-sibling to six-time stakes winner Sircat Sally, whose debut victory for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer was her first of seven straight wins. Same connections. First-time starters EASYDOES IT PLEASE and IRISH CREAM N KAFE debut in what looks like a relatively modest field of state-bred maidens.

NINTH RACE

LATE ‘N LEFT drops from a stakes on turf (not her preferred surface) into a first-level allowance sprint on dirt. She has speed, her best figures are appropriate for this level, she gets in light and benefits by the shorter five and one-half furlong distance. LIFE’S BLESSINGS ran well in her comeback, runner-up at this level going six and a half. Shorter distance not a problem; she won her debut at this distance by open lengths. ROCKPORT BABE has won this condition; she entered for the optional $40k claim tag.

TENTH RACE

SAMBA INC, a South American Group 1 winner, makes her U.S. debut in this turf sprints stakes with a string of sharp workouts for Bob Baffert. The filly was quick from the gate in her Feb. 7 work (viewed on XBTV), she won her last three starts in Argentina by wide margins, and her pattern suggests she is ready to fire first in North America. BENDABLE ran well in her first try on turf, a G3 runner-up finish. The filly that beat her (Coniah) returned last weekend with a sharp second in a graded stakes on dirt. The point is, BENDABLE ran well on this course, against a top rival, and is technically dropping in class from graded stakes to restricted. ALGORHYTHMIC won four straight on this course last spring before going to the sidelines. Her work pattern is solid; she gets tested for class after extending her win streak vs. allowance foes. CUYATHY is quick, and that makes her a threat. But so is MONGOLIAN SHOPPER. Interesting turf sprint for fillies and mares.