ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, MR. JAGERMEISTER

FIRST RACE

JONWAINS JUSTICE gets good race flow, will be a price, and can hold the rail and save all the ground into the stretch before wheeling out and running everyone down. At least on paper that’s how we see it. EASY MONEY MAN goes third off the layoff and can stalk a good trip IF able to relax early. Class drop makes him the one to beat. MAGPIE JIMMIE is the outside speed. Maybe he can stalk maybe he can’t. Lone win came locally while recent works are OK.

SECOND RACE

MR. SHOOK is a new turf horse before everyone knows it. His turf debut, 4 back, was against much better and this gelding was right there with a furlong to go before tiring. Then he tries the local green and wins easily. We love the jump to open double nickel foes. Form cycle hints at better and this horse has a recent start. We would love to get 4-1 morning line. ELEVEN ZIP is just better on the grass which he gets back to today. Race flow is only average for this off the pace runner. RAOFTHESUN has some speed and draws the rail. There isn’t a ton of pace in here. If able to get an early breather, maybe he hangs on for a piece? Or more?

THIRD RACE

FERNET ME NOT goes from a 6% barn to a 13% one. Works are simply sharp and well spaced. We spy three runners that could show some speed and who knows what the first time starters will do. A good price to entice. JOSIE TREASURE ran well in her debut and has every right to improve second time out. WALK AWAY is another Paul Treasure horse that has speed. Either of this filly’s first two starts could win this. She does draw outside main pace foe. EZ GIRL is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 31-6-3-1 for 151K. All 3 sibs beat winners including Rockin Home who banked 205K. LIDY PEAK is by a 7% debut sire. Her dam went 9-0-2-1 for 23K. This is her first foal.

FOURTH RACE

FLASHY GOLD has hit the exacta in 2 of 3 starts at today’s tricky distance. Race flow is a plus for this off the pace runner as the 6, 8, and 9 all have speed. This mare is often a good price. I AM GOING GLOBAL might be quickest at least that is what we first thought. Then we saw that 9 was quicker to the first call in their common race. This mare can stalk and seems to like this distance. She might need some racing luck to take this but the price should be right. POWER OF THIRTEEN is in good form, draws well, and can pass runners.

FIFTH RACE

BULLITTONE has run evenly in his last two but don’t forget that he is an 11YO. We think he is better going two turns on the grass. That 77 Beyer that he got when last seen on this lawn would win this if duplicated. HOBBITS HERO has some speed and an inside post. Not sure what happened last out as the chalk other than this gelding never got a breather. Jock switch to Lopez is noted (27% J/T). HE’S NO SAINT just ran better and missed a Beyer top by one point. He didn’t even break well in that race. He will have to win this with a new jock today.

SIXTH RACE

AMBIDEXTROUS DUKE ran evenly off the layoff while disappointing as the favorite. The blinkers go ON and that is a good sign. He likes this distance and draws best. We should see better tactical speed with today’s added furlong. INCLINED TO WIN is the value. This 9YO goes third off the layoff and is 13-3-1-1 at this distance. We like how he showed a little speed last out before tiring. There isn’t much pace in this race. We like the jock switch to Hernandez. ACADEMIC CODE gets away from the rail and tries this distance for a second time. Those figs 3 and 4 back are better than most. He did go 8 wide two back.

SEVENTH RACE

MR. JAGERMEISTER should be much better than these. This colt gave Amys Challenge all she could handle two back and that filly is simply awesome. This colt never got a breather in his 3YO debut at Santa Anita plus that was a tough return distance. Still, it shows you what connections think of this guy. He should be the speed in this race but he doesn’t need a pace advantage to win. ROCKY