ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, MISSION COMMAND

FIRST RACE

RISK MANAGEMENT hasn’t won a race since April of 2014, but that near four year span covers only 10 races for gelding who endured a long layoff prior to returning to action at the end of last year; has some speed when he’s right and he should be forward in this race after getting a more conservative ride early from the rail in his first start of the year. FINAL CHAPTER is better than these horses when he shows up, which isn’t always a given for him, and the prospect of a wet track doesn’t do him any favors; drops again after landing in three fast races since his return from a layoff. NO HIDING PLACE is fine on a wet track and has speed, and, as opposed to the top two, he actually ran pretty well in his most recent race despite having to work hard to dispose of a longshot challenger on the lead, and then proving to be no match for a favored winner.

SECOND RACE

GLEASON and GO GET THE MUNNY sport similar profiles as second-time starters exiting dominant maiden wins over seven-eighths, where they both threw their ears straight up in the air once making the lead as though they had more to give. GLEASON attended a fast pace before easily going clear at Tampa, and the horse he overpowered on the lead returned to improve his Beyer 17 points to a 78 in his next start. Liked the way GO GET THE MUNNY settled early after jumping well from the gate in his debut, and he went on to an easy win while posting the top figure in this field by a clear margin and appearing to have a future. COLT AND MISSISSIPPI turning back and dropping in class after going aggressively to the early lead in the Grade 3 Withers last time; he’s no star, but he is good enough to ensure that the two second-time starters must continue to progress if they want to win this.

THIRD RACE

FOREST BLUE arrived in form from California and he acquitted himself well in his NY debut while giving game chase to a fleet Phi Beta Express all through the stretch before coming up short; drops back to a better level for this after chasing Westwood in his two most recent starts, including that last race which was run over a strong inside track. HEAVEN’S RUNWAY is surrounded by too many questions to have a lot of confidence in, but he is too good for this kind of field if he returns from the long layoff in form; was entered and scratched for a $25k tag a couple of weeks ago, now turns up for $50k, for whatever that’s worth. HE LOOKS THE PART a closer stepping up while in form, and he did well to make some ground last time in a race that didn’t exactly set up well for his running style; needs some pace to develop in front of him to have his best chance. ROCKFORD only knows how to show up and run his race, though he may find this class level a little tough; has the right running for this race as he steps up in class and cuts back in distance off the re-claim for an excellent trainer.

FOURTH RACE

With little to recommend the experienced runners in this field to this point, will try to make firster FLAT CALM a runner for Linda Rice, who is capable with first-time starters over this trip (past year, first-time starter, dirt, one mile: 4 wins and 2 seconds from seven starters, $3.65 ROI); FLAT CALM by a solid sire in Flatter and she is the first foal from her dam, who hails from a strong SamSon family. DANCING WTH DAFFODLS raced wide and finished up okay in her debut sprinting, and she was left behind as second-best after trying to make a run at My Last Million on the lead over this distance in her second start; up off the claim, and earned the top figure in the field for that last effort. BREEZY GAL has much more of turf pedigree and she didn’t do all that much running in her debut, but she has that experience behind her for a trainer who has few peers with second-time starting maidens.

FIFTH RACE

PINK TWIST had speed in her belated debut and she stayed gamely through the final furlong to hold off a closer to prevail for Pletcher, who has excellent numbers stretching out with debut winners on dirt (41% overall with a positive ROI, and better than that with older horses; 3yo and up, 11 for 22, 50%, $2.40 ROI). PINK TWIST has

plenty of pedigree to stretch out, and she appears to hold a pace advantage on this field. NORTH END returned from a long layoff and tired in the stretch after a good-enough trip as her entrymate when on to a clear-cut win; big threat if she can improve with that race out of the way based on her maiden win second-time out, where she managed to keep up as pace-setting Decorator Jenn tried to break away around the turn, and then just overpowered that rival in the stretch. PLAYINWITHTHEBOYS arrived with solid form from Finger Lakes and she ran her race over here while no match for NORTH END’s winning entrymate; likely to have to do better than that in this spot.

SIXTH RACE

HEART IN HAND dropping for his 4yo debut, which isn’t necessarily a great sign, but he may be a bit more trustworthy than his two main rivals, even though both DANEBURY and PRETENTIOUS have run races on dirt in the past that would give him almost no chance; was a non-factor in his lone main track start to date, but he was facing much better horses that day in a fast-paced race, and he can land a better trip in this spot. DANEBURY dropping after failing to show up with much in his first two starts off the layoff; still has some speed based on that last one, and he did run a couple of races early on that would make him a handful in this kind of race. PRETENTIOUS lacks a winning profile, and his form since arriving in NY hasn’t come close to the level he was at in California (where he was mostly a turf horse, anyway); tries again.

SEVENTH RACE

MISSION COMMAND was back to dirt in a race originally scheduled for turf last time, and he faced a weaker field that day, but always preferred him on this surface and liked the way he went early after the leader and then finished that race off at the end; facing better off that win, but willing to give once promising colt the chance to continue his progress. GIANTINTHEMOONLITE never seems to win, but he does show up and run every time and he fits this race well from a pace-perspective; improved his figures for Baker last year, but still came up empty in the win column. JEWEL CAN

DISCO has a couple of rivals with speed to his outside, but he may be fastest early in this spot, and that makes him dangerous; no excuses in that last one after making the front, but that field may have been a bit stronger.

EIGHTH RACE

Would prefer this race be six furlongs for FRATELLO DEL NORD, but the real key to success for him is managing to get himself involved early, which shouldn’t be a problem in this field; game effort two back when prevailing in a pace battle before just missing late. TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK steps up out of the three-life claiming ranks at the right time after finding improved form for this trainer; was likely best two back when nd moving early and wide before falling to a perfectly-ridden winner late, and he was easily best last time while keeping closer to an easy pace. WE DID can be an in-and-outer, but he is dropping in class after facing tougher in his first two starts of the year and he has plenty of back races that make him tough in a race like this. Last time was probably the time for CALCULATED RISKER after he raced wide over a strong inside track two starts back, but he is in the right kind of spot while in form, and he has won each of his last three starts over wet tracks.