ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, GHOST TRAIN

FIRST RACE

HEAT SEEKING makes her first start off the claim for a barn which wins at 53%(!) with same, making her a threat by default; the fact that she looks to be the main speed in this relatively paceless field adds to the appeal. MEXICANA was a prompt winner in her latest, and she’s clearly the one to beat based on that win, and her steady recent figures; expected light price the main knock. CAN’T STOP BELIEVN has the speed to stay close, and that could be an edge if the pace is in fact controlled.

SECOND RACE

BELLA VINCENZA has won two straight and she could be in position to keep that streak going, as a repeat of that last figure may be good enough for her to get it done; needs pace help, and though she is not likely to get the same kind of set up she did last time but she should get at least honest fractions up front. BALADA could be the main speed, and given a loose lead she has license to rebound in her first start off the short rest; back on the main track but this could be her best surface. MO TOWN KAT draws inside and has the tactical speed to get position immediately; may get first run at the expected pacesetter.

THIRD RACE

TOLL GUARD is back in for a tag, and his best races have come in maiden claimers; he’s wide but he has the speed to get involved immediately, and if he’s able to run to his best Beyers he figures tough in here. VINEYARD COVE held the place after setting or pressing the pace last time out, and though he was aided by a favorable race flow he merits respect off that line. PAPA JOEL gets back in a sprint, and the extra distance in his latest could be viewed as an excuse; layoff of course an issue but he doesn’t meet the deepest of fields.

FOURTH RACE

TORNERO is by a sire who won his own career debut and was best sprinting, and the dam’s lone win came in a dirt sprint; this filly gets Lasix for this, and she doesn’t need to be much above average to win this. SUSPICION improved with the addition of Lasix, and in her first start off the layoff; looms a threat here if she can run back to that one. MEAN QUEEN is kin to five runners, all minor winners; sire scored in his own bow.

FIFTH RACE

CONTRARIAN was well set up by some fast early splits in her latest but she did well to close for the place, and though she goes longer here the barn excels with stretch outs; the one to fear late. COMMENTARY was a close-up 2nd in her debut, an effort that clearly marks her as a threat in her 2nd start for trainer Christophe Clement; logical enough. FONDA ROMANA merits a look based on that last effort and figure, which puts her squarely in the middle of this; looks like one of these three favorites.

SIXTH RACE

GHOST TRAIN didn’t the board in any of her first three starts against winners but she didn’t get all that much pace help in any of those races and that should change today; eligible to make the last run given a sub :48 opening half, or at least a slightly better set up than she’s gotten. NICK’S ROSE is another who stands to benefit from the likely pace scenario; Beyers slowly on the rise. TAKE CHARGE SUE takes the blinkers off but should be involved from the start regardless, as she has not yet shown a rating gear; lone try on turf resulted in a decent figure despite the fact that she was off the board.

SEVENTH RACE

FRIENDSWITH K MILL has been unseen since he was off the board in back in early January but he was squarely against the race flow in that paceless race, which has yielded a pair of next-out winners; has license to move up here if he gets a better race flow. TEMPIETTO has been in good form all meet long, and he looks like the one to beat after running 2nd at this level in his latest; should be rolling late. AMERICAN LUXURY has won three of his last four, including wins over the top two picks

in two of those scores; early speed puts him in the mix from the start, though he may have to deal with CALEB’S COMET in the opening stages.

EIGHTH RACE

BLAME T J was a decent third in her first start off the claim, and the effort two back, when a head short, was even better, as she was forced to try to rally in a race which set up well for the speeds; steady turf Beyers make her easy to like. ALINEA adds blinkers today, and may show more early zip as a result; drops from Maiden Special Weight company, and that move is also a solid angle for this barn. LADY LOVE made a bid for the lead and held the advantage in the lane, only to be run down in the late stages in her local debut; obviously fits well at this level.

NINTH RACE

DESTINEDTOBE takes a drop in class for his first start off the layoff, which can certainly be viewed as a negative, but he has some decent works showing, breezes which indicate he may be ready off the break; barn enjoying a solid meet. RETURN VIDEO makes his first start off the claim for a barn winning at a good rate with same, and he’s the likely favorite after running 2nd in five of six career starts; of course, that’s also a reason to try to beat him at a short price. POKERIST didn’t break well in his latest, and that cost him; figures to be a factor from the start given a clean getaway from his inside post.