ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, FORBIDDEN COMMAND

FIRST RACE

Based on his recent runner-up finish, SAVE GROUND is an obvious selection in this turf mile for Cal-bred maidens. Facing similar last out on this course, SAVE GROUND pressed a strong pace, rallied to the lead at the quarter pole, and finished more than three clear of third. A similar effort would be tough to beat. The top choice is trained by Ben Cecil, and owned by J. Paul Reddam. Second preference is Ed Freeman-trained TATAR, also owned by Reddam. TATAR stretches back to the distance/surface (route/turf) of his best previous races. Although he is a 5yo maiden making his eighth career start, the front-runner actually figures as a contender if he can avoid a pace duel with stretch-out sprinter WILD LANDO. The latter finished in the money in all five main-track sprints; he stretches out and switches to turf as a potential pace play. Troubleprone DIAL ME IN will pick them up late.

SECOND RACE

TEQUILA SUNRISE and TEA FOR TAM, three-two last out in a similar dirt route for maidens, are logical choices. Although she finished behind TEA FOR TAM last out, the third-place comeback by TEQUILA SUNRISE was possibly better than it looks. Racing over the slowest surface of the meet while making her first start in six months, ‘SUNRISE was caught wide early, loomed a threat in the lane, then went one-paced. It was a tough surface on which to return, and she ran well. With a race under her belt and two sharp works since, the Lemon Drop Kid filly should move forward. But she can only win if she can catch TEA FOR TAM. The latter had been off three months when she set a solid pace over the slow surface and held second. That was her first in three months, and first try around two turns. Good comeback. She could go favored, and could race gate to wire. END OF NOW, A Ghostzapper filly that is a sibling to G1 winner It Tiz Well, finished nowhere in her debut. But as a second-start maiden with pedigree, she certainly has a right to improve.

THIRD RACE

FIRE TO THE WIRE has been a sprinter most of his 10-start career, therefore could be vulner- able racing two turns. On the other hand, his only route two starts back was one of his best efforts; he set/pressed strong fractions in a Cal-bred N1X, fought to deep stretch, tired and finished third. Not bad. He returns to the $25k claiming N2L ranks, and faces only one main pace rival. ‘WIRE seems obvious, with a front-running/pace-pressing trip. TOPGALLANT is proven around two turns; his third-place finish last out at this class level and racetrack earned the top figure of his career. He will be grinding away late. SAGITTARI is the aforementioned pace rival for the top choice. SAGITTARI dusted maiden-claiming sprinters last out, and now stretches back two turns. He ran well finishing second in a route race here last spring.

FOURTH RACE

JEWELED lost all four starts as the favorite, but none at this maiden-20 level. She finished in the money three straight (MSW and maiden-62.5k), has speed to be forwardly placed, and gets the call to win this five-furlong dud for older maidenclaiming fillies and mares. RADIO CHATTER finished second last out at six furlongs, shortens to five and will be involved every step. This is her fifth start, Melissa Saldana is her third trainer. KNOWITALLHOUSEWIFE returns to the bottom class level after finishing fourth vs. better.

FIFTH RACE

The maiden win on this turf course two starts back by DR. ANN is fast enough to win this $50k claiming turf mile for 3yo fillies. She was in over her head last out in a stakes on synthetic, but returns to preferred footing as the one to beat despite the outside post. NEON GYPSY also returns to grass and drops into a claiming race for the first time. Her third in a minor stakes race two back puts her in the picture for the historically productive trainerjockey team of Bob Hess Jr. and Kent Desormeaux. Strange stat: Hess and Desormeaux have not won a race together since September; they are 0-for-27 with eight runner-up finishes the past six months. SILVERSPUN PICKUP stretches out and switches to turf following a big $25k claiming dirt-sprint win. Sired by Papa Clem (11 percent turf winners) SILVERSPUN PICKUP was produced by an Unusual Heat mare that won a maiden race on turf. The surface switch could be okay. UNO TROUBLE MAKER was claimed from a maiden-30 dirt-sprint

win in December; she returns for a $45k tag firsttime turf and first-time long. She adds speed.

SIXTH RACE

FORBIDDEN COMMAND returns to preferred conditions (dirt route) as the most probable winner on the card, based on facile main-track wins in November and January. ‘COMMAND was in tough last out in a Cal-bred turf allowance; either previous dirt start would be tough to beat in this $10k claiming route for fillies and mares. IPRAY finished a creditable second in her comeback, rallying from next to last while racing for the first time since July. She was claimed for $6,250 and moves up in class first start off the claim. She will be running late over a surface on which she has four wins and four seconds from 15 starts. HONOR MAKER and JILL MADDEN will be forwardly placed, and sitting ducks for the top-choice favorite.

SEVENTH RACE

Lots of contenders in this deep N2X sprint led by TEN BLESSINGS, who has not started since finishing third in the G1 Malibu more than one year ago. He has worked well for his comeback for Bob Baffert, popped triple-digit Beyers twice here, is drawn outside and should fire first start back. RED LIGHTNING followed his blowout N1X victory with an okay third in a small-field G3 won by champion sprinter Roy H. ‘LIGHTNING returns to the allowance ranks, and might be the speed of the field. EXCITATIONS, runner-up twice at this level last fall in Kentucky, makes his California debut for new trainer Doug O’Neill. The colt’s Midwest-East form fits with these. Comebacker RIVER ECHO might want a longer distance than this six and a half-furlong dash, although he did finish second last spring in a sevenfurlong sprint at Belmont. DR. DORR, stablemate of the top choice, fits off his N1X win two starts back.

EIGHTH RACE

BOY HOWDY was compromised last out by an inside trip dueling on a fast pace. He tired, and finished nowhere. But now he drops slightly in class to $25k claiming, and drew an outside post where he can press the pace in the clear. His $32k claiming win two starts back is good enough. TOUGH BUT NICE has been freshened two months; he drops a notch for his comeback but meets the same rival (top choice) that dusted him last time out. ‘NICE adds speed. MADELYN’S WILD MAX attempts another ambitious class hike after earning a career-best figure winning for $16k. He is sharp, wins more than his share (13 for 46), and has a closing style that is opposite the top pair. ‘WILD MAX will roll late seeking his second consecutive upset. Sharp horses moving up in class are always dangerous.