No holding back Bear appeals on back races

It’s all about Gulfstream Saturday, with the Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes marking the 2018 debut of last year’s champion 2-year-old male, Good Magic. The Fountain of Youth caps a 14-race card that includes eight other stakes, seven of them graded. The only other graded race to be found elsewhere Saturday is Santa Anita’s Grade 3, $100,000 Santa Ysabel Stakes.

Gulfstream Park Sprint

Favorable Outcome is the marquee horse off his respectable third in the Grade 1 Malibu in his most recent outing. Favorable Outcome was beaten only one length for second in the Malibu by Edwards Going Left, and his effort received a boost when the Malibu runner up came back to win the Cal Cup Sprint by “only” six lengths with a 102 Beyer Speed Figure.

But while Favorable Outcome will clearly take some beating Saturday, he looks a little less imposing when the 104 Beyer he earned two starts back for winning an allowance race at Aqueduct is put to scrutiny. The runner-up in that overnight race, beaten just a neck, was Pete’s Play Call, who also received a 104 Beyer. The thing is, that number for Pete’s Play Call sticks out like a sore thumb when his past performances are viewed in their entirety, and especially so when you consider he came back to lose his next two starts as the favorite, managing more characteristic Beyers of 86 and 90. I’m having difficulty taking Favorable Outcome’s big fig two back at face value, and if you take that number out of the equation, he really isn’t any faster than several others in this spot, even if he did finish third in a Grade 1 last time.

I took a long look at Mr. Jordan, who boasts sharp current form with a win and two seconds in his last three starts. Mr. Jordan is cutting back to a sprint off five straight starts going two turns, and I’ve thought for a while that, despite his good route form, one-turn races might really suit him. But a recent work on the turf, a surface this 6-year-old has never raced on, has me thinking Mr. Jordan’s connections are unsure what to do with him, and that suspicion threw me off the trail.

Noholdingback Bear is my play. Noholdingback Bear had a disappointing threerace campaign last year, but I can forgive him for it. He actually ran well when second to the prolific Stallwalkin’ Dude in the Diablo Stakes in his 2017 bow after being much farther off the early pace than he is accustomed to. And he delivered that effort off a six-month absence, which mitigates any concern I have about the eight-month layoff he brings into this race. But after that outing, Noholdingback Bear was soundly beaten in the True North and in the Highlander on Woodbine’s turf. In his defense, however, Noholdingback Bear ran into an emerging champion in Roy H in the True North, and turf is just not his best surface.

Noholdingback Bear has back races as a 3-year-old that look strong here, specifically his third in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop to champion Drefong and his decisive victory in the Gallant Bob over Mind Your Biscuits right when that one was getting good.

Mac Diarmida Stakes

Sadler’s Joy had a fine season last year, winning the Grade 1 Sword Dancer and finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, only 1 1/2 lengths behind third-place finisher Highland Reel, who came back to win the Hong Kong Vase to push his earnings past the $10 million mark. But if you think Sadler’s Joy will be tough – and I think he’s best on tighter-turned turf courses like Gulfstream’s – then why not try Patterson Cross, who is essentially the same horse, but at a better price?

Patterson Cross finished just behind Sadler’s Joy in two Gulfstream stakes last winter, but after being too close early in one, and pulling a wider trip in the other. Patterson Cross is coming off an 11-month layoff, but preps for this are scarce, and I’ll trust Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott to have him ready.

Spring Fever Stakes

I’m going against the sloppy-track form of the American Beauty Stakes in this feature at Oaklawn, and I’m taking recent allowance winner Okie Diva to win right back.

Okie Diva didn’t fire on the wet track in the American Beauty, but scored on a drier track last time after being a pace player, an approach I hope she repeats.