ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, PRAY FOR BOURBON

FIRST RACE

MADELINE’S HOPE lacks early speed but she has been racing in competitive form at and around this level dating back to the end of last year; may have finally found the right field as she cuts back after chasing a 1/9 favorite over a mile last month. PRINCESS MAEVE a first-time starter in the right kind of spot if she can run at all, and she is a sister to five winners from this dam; trainer 0-25 with firsters over the past five years, but she has had a few in that sample hit the board at big numbers. CELTIC SERENADE looking to come forward second off the layoff after prevailing in a battle for 3rd in first ever dirt sprint last time; that was a weak field, but so is this one. MAZMANIA ran a few races early on that would make her tough in a race like this, and she was wide against an inside track in the slop last week; wouldn’t be a shock in this kind of race.

SECOND RACE

PRAY FOR BOURBON was dropped in for the price two starts back, but she came with a strong wide run to close that field down while posting her second straight win on dirt, and she may have actually improved in her first start off the claim when bumped back to last at the start and then making a game run to contention while three-wide over a gold rail track; filly who just out-finished her for 2nd in that last one also raced wide, and she came back to win her next start while up in class at Laurel. PICTURE DAY returned from a long layoff early last year and she just kept on improving, eventually winning three in a row while moving up in class each time; good first start back for her while chasing an in-form Short Kakes through the stretch. BOW TOWN CAT 0 for her last 9 in NY since blowing out maiden claimers at the end of 2016, but she has held her own vs. some better horses during that run, and has shipped out of town to run some fast races, as well; speed makes her dangerous in this field, where it appears they may have trouble keeping up with her early.

THIRD RACE

Firsters from top-shelf McLaughlin barn can be a tough read, but their NUMERICAL appears to be training forwardly into his career debut, and his pedigree suggests that he may be one to take seriously from the start; by Tapit, he is out of the multiple Grade 1-winning mare Seventh Street, whose first foal, Marking, was a very talented runner who won his first two career starts, before finishing a game 2nd to Runhappy in the Grade 1 Malibu. Have no such trouble reading firsters from Rick Violette’s barn; just expect them to be ready, and his LUNAR BEAUTY is perfectly drawn on the outside in this short field; this one appeared to be preparing for a summer debut before hitting the sidelines, but he has been back in regular training since the beginning of January, and all three winning foals from this dam scored first time out for Violette. CRIMSON KING a half to the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Maple Forest, who also raced for these connections; this one has been training in NY right along. DRF TicketMaker, available only at DRF.com

FOURTH RACE

All things being equal, DEAN’S TICKET is a little light on figures for this field, something which seemed to find her out two starts back when no match for a couple of these mares in the mud; of course, things aren’t always equal in this game, and Dean’s Ticket came through with a deceptively good effort last week when rushing up after missing the break and then taking the race to favored Milaya around the turn (while off a strong rail), before weakening over that mile distance; cuts back. EXCHANGING SECRETS did not look comfortable over that sloppy/sealed track two starts back and never fired, but she had no such trouble handling to going last time when jumping up to a new top figure first off the Gullo claim; tough if that’s where she is now as she enters right back at the same level. SPECIAL DIVIDEND has the back races to get to that would make her too much for this field, but she has been something of a disappointment since starting back from a layoff at the end of last year, and

she is dropping off the claim following a near two month break.

FIFTH RACE

EKHTIBAAR ran well while earning 88 Beyer off a long layoff two starts back, despite being no match for his talented stablemate Backyard Heaven, and he came right back to overpower maidens from just off the pace last time; added distance seems unlikely to be much of an issue, and this is the right kind of spot to take the next step. WILD ABOUT DEB can make things hard on EKHTIBAAR if he can re-find his best form while starting over with a trainer change to Rudy; had a bit of a trip two back at Santa Anita, though he never looked like winning that race, and he didn’t have much to offer in that Grade 3 last time. STARSHIP ZEUS keeps showing up and running his figures without threatening to win a race, as was the case last time when managing to save some ground over that strong inside track, and then failing to get up for 2nd at the end; steps back up off the claim.

SIXTH RACE

SCARF IT DOWN ran well enough in three straight races over a mile distance that doesn’t really suit him recently, including that most recent one in December where he didn’t go aggressively early in a race that called for that kind of ride and found himself in the unenviable position of being chased all through the turn before succumbing late; didn’t really get the chance to step things up on the cut back last time when chasing Forge (104 Beyer) from the outside over a track that featured a strong rail. Six furlongs may be a bit sharp for GOING STRONG, but closer projects to have some pace in front of him in this race, and he is good enough to take advantage; good rally into 2nd at a big price when off the claim for this trainer last September, also in a sprint that featured a fast pace. SICILIA MIKE another who can benefit from catching some pace to run at, and he is in form now, while still finding wins difficult to come by; rallied along the strong inside path to out-finish SCARF IT DOWN for 2nd two starts back, but he came wide last time while the winner got through on the rail.

SEVENTH RACE

GUICK took advantage while riding a gold rail to victory when stretched out to this distance two starts back, but he was then bumped up in class by a sharp trainer for his next start, and he raced on well while no match for heavily-favored Blewitt in that spot; faces no one of that quality this time. SPECIAL STORY was wide off a strong rail in his NY debut, and he then dropped in class to dominate two-life claimer over this distance in his next start with a strong figure; didn’t back that race up all that well off the claim last Sunday, though that was his first start over a sloppy track. THE GREAT SAMURAI stepping up while in form for sharp connections, and he has been at his best over the one-turn mile on dirt; perfect trips in his last two vs. weaker, but they were easy wins. DYNAMAX PRIME a contender with his best, but he is returning from a long layoff, and he was scratched by the vet last month from a two-life $25k claiming race.

EIGHTH RACE

BLUE UNION RAGS a longshot on the line for the $200k Busher, but she looked nothing like a dirt sprinter early on, and she really improved while cruising to the leaders through the turn and then driving clear in the stretch in first dirt route attempt at Laurel; has to improve, but not by too much, and there appears to be plenty of pace for her to run at in this race. WAR HEROINE has the kind of easy speed which suggests that she may be too fast for this field early; question for her is distance, but if she handles the mile she may be too much for these horses. MY MISS LILLY looked good winning her debut over a wet track despite failing to break sharply from the gate, and she did fine in a tougher stakes field last time despite never really factoring in the outcome; better fit here. MIDNIGHT DISGUISE won a weak edition of the Busanda while just out-staying that field over the nine furlongs after a wide move; has some talent and can handle the cut back.

NINTH RACE

SCRIPTED a homebred with too much pedigree for this kind of race as a half to Grade 1-placed Conquest Mo Money, who got a shot in the Preakness last year; shows only two recent works at the track, but he was training right along at Bridlewood and his trainer is solid with firsters. ROSEY GAL has more of a turf pedigree on the dam side, but there are several runners in this family, and Schettino in underrated with first-time starters (16% with a positive ROI over the past five years with firsters in dirt sprints, 31% in that sample with maiden claimers, $2.34 ROI). STARLITE MISSION getting a needed drop in class after failing to improve lately in the MSW ranks; experience counts.