ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, CELESTINE

FIRST RACE

Tough one to start the long day. HELEN VIRGINIA beaten a neck by similar when last stepping out of state bred N1X company, as good as any at her best. SHE’S SPOILED sheds shades but still with enough speed to be forwardly placed throughout under her new rider Luis Saez. LORAN HOLIDAY perhaps the biggest question mark in the field getting plenty of class relief but idle since Oct. 1 and with only 3 published works showing at press time. Could need one.

SECOND RACE

TRAVY BOY never really had a chance in his debut after getting knocked around after the break then forced to take plenty of dirt in behind horses near the rail in run down backstretch. Drops to much softer spot, Irad stays. Lots of reasons to believe improvement likely. QUALITY CHOICE debuts far below his purchase price at the sales but has been forwardly prepared for bow, might just have enough inherent class to win at first asking with this group. ALL GOLDEN turns back off series of longer efforts while on the improve of late.

THIRD RACE

AMACE victimized by a brutal trip in latest when stuff behind horses, shuffled on turn before finishing with good energy to be beaten just a length by same kind. Stretches out, Irad stays, shaky nod with cleaner sailing here. CHATIMENT turns back in distance, drops half his value off the claim,

looks forwardly placed throughout in a field lacking a lot in the way of early speed. PERFECT TAY back to the dirt for the first time since finishing second over wet track in off the grass event here last summer. Has turfy action in the a.m. but did show promise in recent main track drill.

FOURTH RACE

The stakes parade kicks off with The Very One. DARING DUCHESS takes big cut back in distance but has had success at this route and likely hard to catch if able to stick her head in front early on as expected. SUMMERSAULT may have lost a couple of steps at the age of six but classes up nicely in this spot. HOLY HELENA impressive winning turf bow albeit against much softer. Must prove she can handle hike to this level. Westit has shown improvement since joining Motion barn but still eligible for N2L lifetime condition after 16 tries.

FIFTH RACE

CELESTINE suffered frustrating setback in the South Beach but looks ready to get back on winning track stretching out to a mile while well drawn on the rail to boot. GRIZZEL an interesting alternative coming off recent freshening but with promising series of works under her belt prepping for return. Classes up nicely with the remainder of this lineup. STORM THE HILL has come up wanting late in both previous starts when forwardly placed on each occasion, might find more success if reverting to previous style, sitting back and making one run from off what figures to be legit pace here.

SIXTH RACE

SPEED FRANCO ‘s lone setback in four starts came when trying to rate in the Kitten’s Joy. Should be on the engine once again if leaving cleanly from the rail. Can lead these a merry chase again if loose despite the added distance. HAWKISH visually very impressive in his debut but taking a big step right into graded stakes company off maiden win but looks like a horse with a big future. NEEPAWA needed five tries to finally break his maiden but on the improve and exiting a series of sharp works since the victory. Worth tossing in at a square price.

SEVENTH RACE

THEWAYIAM hard to fault off her two local tries and since uniting with Jose Ortiz, got up from off soft pace last time, can continue winning ways with a trip. BRATTATA an impressive maiden winner from tough post last time and an improving sort who might handle the jump to this company.

MY FAVORITE GIFT no match for preferred choice while turning in promising turf bow and looks like the controlling speed once again.

EIGHTH RACE

FLY SO HIGH a runaway winner of each of her two starts at a mile and eligible for even better as she’s likely to improve from the experience. Should get the pace help needed from Alter Moon, Heavenhasmynikki and Cache. MISS MO MENTUM a major disappointment last time after super easy win in the Hut Hut which begs the question of whether she’s best on a wet track. Will give a mulligan and give her a look at a bigger price off her last. SULTRY finished well behind Take Charge Paula in the Forward Gal and may be better suited of the pair at a mile. The latter hard to fault in present form but Beyer Figs just average and she’s a big question stretching out today.

NINTH RACE

LAYTHATPISTOLDOWN hard to look past at this level. Defeated same kind rather easily two back, was second best behind red hot Conquest Sandman last time, the latter flattering the effort winning a stakes with 96 Beyer in his subsequent start. May have to out kick CRONINTHEBARBARIAN to the wire, the latter exiting what figures to have been a much needed try off a one year hiatus and expected to improve on drop for this tag. THE ZIP ZIP MAN adds blinkers second off the claim and proved his mettle going 7 furlongs earlier in career with a good Fig effort at Belmont. Might grab a piece at a price.

TENTH RACE

GALLEON MAST a horse for the course having never been off the board in 13 tries over GP sod. In peak form at the current time, well drawn inside to pick up the leaders with any help up front. HIGHLAND SKY has been gelded since dull showing in the Jockey Club, returns to favorite surface, expecting him to pick his game back up today. MARCH also getting some class relief dropping out of G1 company to this more suitable spot.

ELEVENTH RACE

PERSONAL TIME just left with too much to do in recent try when getting Lasix for the first time in 3yo bow. Finally gets his chance around two turns, looks best here if not allowed to drop too far out of it again. COUNTRY SQUIRE raced forwardly placed off lightning fast pace of Slot, faded late in much needed two turn bow. Returned with good PBD work, well drawn inside, might ultimately prove one to catch if able to avoid potential duel with TRAVELLING MIDAS. The latter hard used dueling ultimate winner and odds on Life’s a Parlay in latest. Sheds blinkers, must overcome a bit of a compromising post at this distance.

TWELFTH RACE

FAVORABLE OUTCOME held own with strong field concluding 3yo campaign in G1 Malibu and works indicate he’s ready to come out firing today. Should find ample pace to run at in this field. MR. JORDAN has run a couple of dynamite races in defeat going two turns earlier in the meet and looks very intriguing turning back to a spring for the first time since easy allowance win last summer at Parx. Looks capable of springing the upset. CLASSIC ROCK working like gangbusters for return to graded stakes company and 4 of 5 on this strip but speedster will have to endure early challenges from both flanks with this group.

THIRTEENTH RACE

SADLER’S JOY well spotted to kick off his 2018 campaign, should be along if at his best off the bench. Ran well over the course last winter. GOLD SHIELD a bit of a hanging sort but ran well despite wide trip in the McKnight and an improved sort

at this time. ONE GO ALL GO looks like he should be able to dictate the pace if connections desire, might get brave and hang on for big share at a price if allowed to relax long enough up front. Posts 8-12 have yielded just a single winner from 38 starters at this distance over the past 6 years which is a daunting stat for key contender Oscar Nominated who must break from post 12 and not likely to get the same trip he did winning McKnight five weeks earlier.

FOURTEENTH RACE

Juvenile champ GOOD MAGIC kicks off his 3yo campaign off some impressive a.m. drills in which he’s held own if not gotten the better of recent graded stakes winning mate Economic Model. Need only sit the trip off what figures to be a legit pace to begin his Derby run on a winning note. STORM RUNNER a much improved sort who beat well regarded MIssissippi in local main track bow and working like gangbusters ever since. Could have the best upset chance should the favorite not be up to his best off the bench. FREE DROP BILLY ran well enough in the Holy Bull, earning career best number in process, to merit much consideration with that race under his belt. Toss B C Juvenile when bogged down on a dead rail throughout.