ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, MINISTER’S GLORY

FIRST RACE

Improving each start, runner-up at this Cal-bred maiden level last out, MINISTER’S GLORY is the one to beat. His last was his best yet; he rallied from seventh to second in a race won by the pacesetter. Obvious choice, with corresponding low odds. COOL YOUR JETS ran better than looks in his career debut on the hill. He steadied at the start and was away last, made an extended rally to deep stretch, and tired. A sibling to stakes winners Bel Air Sizzle and America’s Friend, COOL YOUR JETS looms an upset candidate in the second start of his career. SMART KNOWS SMART got too speedy last time when blinkers were added; he dueled between horses and faded. His best effort was in fall when he rallied from off the pace to finish second by a nose. This race is a split of race 4; this is the stronger half.

SECOND RACE

After a pair of runner-up finishes in sprints, MORE HONOR is ready to stretch out and win. He finished well in his debut, then last out had the misfortune of hooking a well-backed first-time starter and fell short by a half-length. Blinkers on, two turns appears to be an ideal trip. JIMMY CHILA improved last time, finishing third in his initial try at a route. Upward pattern, highest last-start figure, he is one of the favorites in this small field. HEART FULL OF STARS finished a length and a half behind JIMMY CHILA while making his first start in California and first around two turns. He has a right to improve. BOCEPHUS finished in the money in three successive stakes at Turf Paradise; SOLTERO can improve second-time long.

THIRD RACE

CITY STEEL has been freshened two months after an uncharacteristic last-place finish from which he was claimed. The normally consistent gelding drops off the claim, and would be right at home on a wet track. Regardless of track condition (“wet” or “fast”), he can wear them down late. LEWIS VALE returned to top form with a decisive victory last out at this $10k claiming level. He returns at the same class, and looms an obvious contender right back. He does have a history of maintaining top form. ROMAN TIZZY stretches back to two turns after an okay runner-up finish at seven furlongs. KRISTO ran poorly last out, but he has rebounded from subpar efforts in the past.

FOURTH RACE

This Cal-bred maiden turf route is the weaker split of race 1. FAST AS CASS finished second in his downhill comeback, which was his first since August. He stretches out second start back, and meets a weak field. ENGLISH INVESTOR adds blinkers and switches to turf for his first start in more than three months. He has upside. First-time starter CELTURIAN will attempt a tough feat. That is, win a turf route first time out. This is a good spot to try. No stars in this lineup. READY EDDIE is a second-time gelding that split the field last out in his initial route. JERSEY’S HEAT is a trouble-prone sort with ability. He might be ranked too low.

FIFTH RACE

Lightly raced LOOKIE LOO stretches to a mile after a solid runner-up finish in a seven-furlong N1X. Two turns should be fine for the Candy Ride colt. DONWORTH returns to the N1X/optional $40k claim level at which he won by more than five lengths three starts back. CAMINO DE ESTRELLA will be rolling late, as Rafael Bejarano’s only scheduled mount on the Saturday card.

SIXTH RACE

If she reproduces her impressive maiden sprint last month while stretching to a route and facing winners, SPRING LILY can upset this G3 route.