ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SOUNDS DELICIOUS

FIRST RACE

ASIAN’S WAY faced better upon arriving in NY last summer and she was game when closing down six-time winner Wildcat Belle three starts back at Saratoga; gave game chase to a front-running winner in her first start back from a layoff. TIZ SUPER dangerous speed returning quickly after blowing out a field of two-life claimers over a track that was kind to inside runners last Saturday. LOOSE improved immediately upon being claimed by Rudy last summer and she faced a sharp rival over a mile in her first start of the year; cuts back with some speed. LADY RULLAH worked out a good trip when turned back to this distance last week and she was clearly best despite being the longest shot on the board; will find this competition tougher.

SECOND RACE

HURRICANE SHEILA was away from the gate poorly in her first two starts before chasing and then tiring, then showed more speed in her 3yo finale only to bump into a wickedly fast Smiling Causeway; has more of a dirt pedigree and Linda has strong numbers with runners like this (past five years, 180+ day layoff, dirt sprint, maidens: 10 for 26, 38%, $3.66 ROI, 5 for 11 in that sample switching from turf to dirt, 45%, $5.60 ROI). OVERTIME OLIVIA failed to secure a clear stretch lead first time out, then contested the pace with Pletcher firster Pink Twist before proving to be no match last time; easier spot here. CUMBRIA a half to the good turf router Maximova making a belated debut; appears to be training well for an excellent trainer.

THIRD RACE

Fact that HARLAN PUNCH managed to stretch out to a mile and a 1/4 last time best indication yet of the strong form he has been in since taken by Jacobson (4 wins from 8 starts), but cutting back to the one-turn mile is still a benefit to him; needs to continue running up to his best in this field. PAPA SHOT rated from the start and got wired in his first start back from a short break over a muddy track; posted fast win out of nowhere when cut back to a one-turn route last May, and he backed that race up well in his next two starts before stretching it back out for his last three starts of the year. PIONEER SPIRIT has been a good horse from the start while mostly facing weaker, but he has certainly upped his game since claimed by this trainer; three improved efforts for Cox have come on either turf or wet tracks, but he has handled fast dirt, and he had a spot of trouble in the stretch when defeated by HARLAN PUNCH two back.

FOURTH RACE

Neither ACCUMULATOR nor TRIANGULATE is compelling from a wagering perspective, but they may have finally found the right field here after getting blown away by a winner who took a serious amount of money in that last race. ACCUMULATOR ran the better race (comparatively speaking) when dueling with TRIANGULATE two starts back, and he rallied into 2nd without last time as TRIANGULATE tired from his early efforts. GIO LUCKY did better in his dirt debut last time, but only after sitting a perfect trip as the heavily-favored winner raced off the rest of the field around the turn leaving him with a clear shot in the stretch. CODYLICIOUS a half to five winners from this dam, who is from a solid family in her own right; not a bad race to debut in, assuming he can run a little.

FIFTH RACE

ALTAR BOY gave way late in his first start off the Rudy claim but only after making a long wide run into that race, which was wired by his in-form stablemate, in a deceptively good effort; another chance dropping in class. J S BACH had a better trip than ALTAR BOY in that last one, but he couldn’t