ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, VISTA CREEK

FIRST RACE

Quarter horses.

SECOND RACE

PONTIFICATOR makes her third local start and without a layoff so perhaps her prior problems are behind her. Hers is the best upside. She has some speed but can pass runners just as easily. We don’t like this post for a horse making only its sixth start but it isn’t enough for us to look elsewhere. Curious as to price. It is always nice to see a recent work. BOLD AT NIGHT only beat two home in her most recent start but notice that she was between runners early and that is a tough place to be. That local sprint try three back was good and she has won 3 of 4 on this dirt. Lots and lots of speed to her outside so we don’t see any kind of a breather today. LITTLE DUME can pass runners but often shows speed. She draws in between the other speeds so now would be a good time to show some early patience.

THIRD RACE

VISTA CREEK is feeling great. Her lone turf try has fallen off the page but it was her Beyer top. That makes sense as her turf pedigree is actually good (318 Tomlinson). She could be the speed and she draws inside. Hernandez stays put even though he rode the 1 and 6 previously. TANAGER has hit the board on the grass in 3 of 5 starts. She got a confidence boost last out. Race flow is fine if a few things break just right. PAPASLILPRINCESS is a hard trier. She has hit the board on the grass in 3 of 9 starts. A stalking trip off the inside speeds might work best.

FOURTH RACE

BRUNTINO has route speed and draws the attack post today. He likes this distance, goes third off the layoff, and has some back class. BEAR FAMOUS TRIP is a 12YO that gets a weight break today. That effort three back was actually decent. NOBLE HAWK has some speed even if he didn’t get a chance to show it in his last few. Today’s race flow is tons better. If able to get an early breather, then maybe today’s extra distance won’t be too tough.

FIFTH RACE

SENNA is the value. We like today’s rail start as he can save all the early ground. This deep closer gets good race flow and will be a good price. SCRAP IRON is the one to beat. It wasn’t that long ago that this guy was facing better. Versatile style is a plus as is leading barn and form cycle. RONNIE CLOUD just ran better and might be coming around. Off the pace style is a plus as there could be a speed duel up front. This gelding worked a bullet on the 27th and then followed up with said better try. This barn can shows a flat bet profit across the board (dirt, routes, and claimers).

SIXTH RACE

MYSTORYNMSTIKNTOIT ran better 2, 4, and 6 back. Coincidence? Jockey/trainer combo is a nice 33%. Inside post helps and he drew the same 2 and 4 back. PRINCE OF PARIS ran great two back and then was steadied in the 1st turn last out. He draws inside and has tactical speed which should make for a good trip. DEL RIO HARBOR won her lone local turf start. Hernandez returns and he rode this gelding to a win the last time he got a leg up. Jockey/trainer combo is 42%. Outside post is a small knock.

SEVENTH RACE

SEEKING PERFECTION adds 1 1/2 furlongs today and draws the attack post for this tricky distance. There is some other speed in here but we think this filly is quickest. Distance tries as a maiden 4 and 5 back were solid. She blew a clear lead last out but that was versus first time winners. Wire please. HERE COMES GRANNY went favored last out and then got into all kinds of trouble. That was a good try two back. Maybe she didn’t like a good track three back. Curious as to price. AFFIRMED TOWER has some speed so avoiding a duel with our top pick is critical. Current form is fine and she is often a good price.

EIGHTH RACE

SORCERESS WARNING gets Vergara back and this filly ran well for him two and three back. Local tab