ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, ZIPPITY ZOOM

FIRST RACE

SALTY SMILE was a game winner while keeping after a quick pace in lone start for a tag last November, and she raced on gamely to be a clear second-best to the talented Split Time in her first start of the year, though there were some notable no-shows in that race; class drop doesn’t appear to be a negative based on what she has shown so far. FLORIDA LADY may be the biggest danger as she makes her first start for Linda Rice after a private purchase following her blowout win at Tampa most recently; showed big improvement in that race after failing to break sharply and then weakening late in her debut. MY LAST MILLION owns the top figure in this field for front-running win over this distance two starts back; clear contender if she can get back to a race like that after failing to come close vs. better last time.

SECOND RACE

ZIPPITY ZOOM was off the layoff when getting caught up contesting the pace with the speedy Awesome News and then tiring at this level last time; has the back races to get to assuming she is tighter for this, and there appears to be no such pace rival for her to deal with in this spot. MY WON LOVE matched her career-best Beyer Speed Figure in her first start for Rudy last month, and she did run well in that race while closing for second behind an in-form Leah’s Dream; still dealing with a short price on a horse who hasn’t won a race dating back to May of 2016, a span of 24 races. DECORATOR JENN back down to the level of the claim after facing better horses in her two starts for her new connections; projects for the right kind of trip up close in a race without much in-form pace. Still waiting for UNREPENTED to show up with her good race for excellent connections, but she hasn’t managed to show it in her last three starts; fits very well her if she can find a way to turn it around on the class drop.

THIRD RACE

PINK TWIST had speed in her belated debut and she stayed gamely through the final furlong to hold off a closer to prevail for Pletcher, who has excel- lent numbers stretching out with debut winners on dirt (41% overall with a positive ROI, and better than that with older horses; 3yo and up, 11 for 22, 50%, $2.40 ROI). PINK TWIST has plenty of pedigree to stretch out, and she appears to hold a pace advantage on this field. NORTH END returned from a long layoff and tired in the stretch after a good-enough trip as her entrymate when on to a clear-cut win; big threat if she can improve with that race out of the way based on her maiden win second-time out, where she managed to keep up as pace-setting Decorator Jenn tried to break away around the turn, and then just overpowered that rival in the stretch. PLAY IN WITH THE BOYS arrived with solid form from Finger Lakes and she ran her race over here while no match for NORTH END’s winning entrymate; likely to have to do better than that in this spot.

FOURTH RACE

With little to recommend the experienced runners in this field to this point, will try to make firster FLAT CALM a runner for Linda Rice, who is capable with first-time starters over this trip (past year, first-time starter, dirt, one mile: 3 wins and 2 seconds from six starters, $2.56 ROI); FLAT CALM by a solid sire in Flatter and she is the first foal from her dam, who hails from a strong SamSon family. DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS aced wide and finished up okay in her debut sprinting, and she was left behind as second-best after trying to make a run at My Last Million on the lead over this distance in her second start; up off the claim for a trainer who is quietly having a good meet, and she earned the top figure in the field for that last effort. BREEZY GAL has much more of turf pedigree and she didn’t do all that much running in her debut, but she has that experience behind her

for a trainer who has few peers with second-time starting maidens.

FIFTH RACE

FOREST BLUE arrived in form from California and he acquitted himself well in his NY debut while giving game chase to a fleet Phi Beta Express all through the stretch before coming up short; drops back to a better level for this after chasing Westwood in his two most recent starts, including that last race which was run over a strong inside track. HELOOKSTHEPART a closer stepping up while in form, and he did well to make some ground last time in a race that didn’t exactly set up well for his running style; needs some pace to develop in front of him to have his best chance. BOLITA BOYZ dropping in class for Rudy after failing to make an impact in his first two starts since being claimed last November; form since arriving in NY just makes him another contender in this well-matched field, but this is the right level. BIG GUY IAN got loose on the lead en route to 92 Beyer win last time for Rudy, and that is not a figure that came out of nowhere for speedy gelding with some solid back form; steps way up for this.

SIXTH RACE

This race brings together two different fields that were set to compete on last Friday’s canceled program, with the addition of both Bear Clause and Final Chapter, who were both set to go in a $10k claimer that day. Would prefer this race be set for six furlongs for FRATELLO DEL NORD, but the real key to success for him is managing to get himself involved early, which shouldn’t be a problem in this field; game effort two back when prevailing in a pace battle before just missing late. TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK steps up out of the threelife claiming ranks at the right time after finding improved form for this trainer; was likely best two back when moving early and wide before falling to a perfectly-ridden winner late, and he was easily best last time while keeping closer to an easy pace. FINAL CHAPTER can easily compete with these horses when he shows up, though that isn’t always a given for him, and fact that he was set to drop in for $10k last week isn’t exactly a positive sign; disappointed when dropped to this level last time, though he really does not appear to like a wet track. WE DID can be an in-and-outer, but he is dropping in class after facing tougher in his first two starts of the year and he has plenty of back races that make him tough in a race like this.

SEVENTH RACE

FELIX IN FABULA posted an easy win in a race originally scheduled for turf in his second career start, and he backed that race up well last time after rating to the back of that field following a bit of a slow start and then getting held up behind horses on the turn, before finishing well; looks like a good fit here stretching out from the rail. EGYPTIAN PIONEER back up off the claim after blasting a very weak field of maiden claimers without ever having to get down to serious business last time; career debut vs. better wasn’t exactly a non-effort, either. INFIELD IS IN made a nice wide run to contention before drawing clear of maidens when switched to dirt two starts back, and he did even better while making a similar wide run at this level last time.

EIGHTH RACE

MISSION COMMAND was back to dirt in a race originally scheduled for turf last time, and he faced a weaker field that day, but always preferred him on this surface and liked the way he went early after the leader and then finished that race off at the end; facing better off that win, but lands in a race not lacking for pace for him to run at, and willing to give once promising colt the chance to continue his progress. GIANTINTHEMOONLITE never seems to win, but he does show up and run every time and he fits this race well from a pace-perspective; improved his figures for Baker last year, but still came up empty in the win column. JEWEL CAN DISCO has a couple of rivals with speed to his outside, but he may be fastest early in this spot, and that makes him dangerous; no excuses in that last one after making the front, but that field may have been a bit stronger.

NINTH RACE

ANDRONIKOS got very tired in the stretch in debut run over a mile, but only after engaging in a long duel for the lead after going on to secure the rail early in that race; gets Lasix while cutting back for his second start, and that debut may be a bit better than it looks. FLIPPED may be the horse to beat after showing significant improvement last time as a follow up to his green debut run; getting a drier track to run on may be a positive for him, assuming he finally gets one. WON’T BE MISSED didn’t have much to offer after getting out-paced behind FLIPPED last time, but he actually raced on pretty well in his debut at a big price; adds Lasix with a chance to rebound at another big price. MIRACOLO one to consider debuting for an excellent first-out trainer; has been breezing right along, and Bustin Stones colt is a half to a pair of winners from this dam.