ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, MERCER ISLAND

FIRST RACE

LAZZAM is in career-best form and the one to beat this nine-furlong turf starter allowance. LAZZAM won a N1X two starts back at this distance; he missed by a neck last out in a starter allowance. In a race with plenty of speed, the closer can sit, wait and rally late for a low-odds win. KRISTI’S COPILOT set the pace to deep stretch last time, only to be swallowed. He finished fourth, only a length behind the winner. The challenge for frontrunner ‘COPILOT is twofold: overcoming a course profile that generally favors late-runners, and four others in this field with the same front-running style. IMAGE OF JOPLIN has not raced since early December, and was reported as a vet scratch from an allowance race Feb. 16. The front-runner has won 10 races, but winning a turf route first start in three months vs. a field with other speed will be tough. NOBLE NICK, winner of the Humboldt County Marathon last summer at Ferndale, ships from Golden Gate with proper credentials, although he is unproven on turf.

SECOND RACE

This maiden-20 sprint is weak. Pace-presser YALLA, a seven-start maiden, adds blinkers and figures to be forwardly placed in a race without much early speed. DRESSED IN PRADA has the highest last-start figure; she finished in the money in five of eight. PRINCESS NICOLE has changed trainers since raced, shortens to a sprint and will rally late. VEILED HEAT is a 10-start maiden with a smidge of ability.

THIRD RACE

MERCER ISLAND will be tough to beat in this $16k claiming N3L race if he merely reproduces his most-recent N2L romp. He pressed a fast pace, took over on the far turn, and won clear over a horse that won a $25k claiming N2L next out. MERCER ISLAND should get another frontrunning/pressing trip. Anything close to his mostrecent start would be fast enough. OREJAS wired easier setting a slow pace. The thing is, other than the top choice, there is not much speed in this field. If the top pair stay out of each other’s way, they could make it a parade. TOUGH IT OUT returns to the main track and drops in class.

FOURTH RACE

The pick six begins here (nine-race card). MOMMA’S BABY BOY missed by a nose last time in a similar special-weight route; the career maiden meets a modest field for the eighth start of his career. Tough to trust a maiden with no early speed, but options are limited. MONEIGH MOPROBLEMS stretches to a route and returns to dirt following a pair of thirds on turf. The footing change is curious because his best races have been on turf. However, he has a potential pace advantage. He is quick enough to make the lead. SUPER TERRIFIC stretches out with two sprints under his belt. He is bred to stay a distance. DOWNTOWNER makes his second career start, and first since January 2017.

FIFTH RACE

SAMDAR drops slightly to $100k maiden-claiming after an okay comeback splitting a MSW field. It won’t take much improvement to handle this modest field of turf milers. FORMAL DUDE makes his first start in four months, and first since being gelded. He showed hints of ability last fall. CAMPS BAY broke slowly and finished willingly in his fourth-place debut on the hill. Tough to win a route race stretching out from just a single sprint, but pickings are slim in this lineup. JACK AND I makes his career debut with the meet’s leading turf rider; SARATOGA MORNING drops slightly in class. This race is a scramble.

SIXTH RACE

C. C. ZIPP romped last out vs. $25k claiming N2L foes; this $16k claiming N3L sprint is the next step in class. Tough to beat if she runs two alike. TANGLED UP IN JU returns from a layoff of more than eight months, dropping in for a claim tag. The last time she faced claiming company, she won a N2L by more than four lengths with a speed figure similar to the top choice. CONQUEST FLATTERME

has speed and returns to the claiming ranks; TEE EM EYE will pick them up late.

SEVENTH RACE

LINE DRIVE missed by a nose last out behind a filly that returned to win a Cal-bred allowance. It was a super runner-up effort by LINE DRIVE, who was wheeling back just six days after a 17-length maiden win. Now she has had six weeks between starts. Tough to beat with a front-running trip. ATREVIDA was in over her head last out in a stakes; her debut romp two starts back gives her a shot. MIZ TIANJIN trounced maiden-20s by 12 lengths last out. She will enter with the highest last-start figure.

EIGHTH RACE

Lightly raced BATTLEGROUND STATE returns to her preferred two-turn trip after finishing fifth of 10 in a turf sprint. Her maiden win three back, when she returned from a short layoff similar to this, would probably be good enough. MY AUNT TILLIE needed 10 starts to finally win a maiden race last time, but the figures she earned in a series of maiden turf miles here last spring give her a longshot chance stretching out second start back. X S GOLD finished a creditable third last time in a $200k stakes for 3yos; the improving filly may fit against this field of older fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up. Also-eligible SPEAKERS missed by only a nose last out against similar.

NINTH RACE

OPTIC takes a major class drop to maiden-30 in his first start since being gelded. He meets a soft bunch in his sprint; the speed figure he earned his most recent start on dirt would bury this field. First-time starter LOLLY EXPRESS makes his career debut for trainer Mike Puype. The past six months, Puype is 2-for-8 with maiden-claiming firsters. Both winners (Short of Ez, Gutsy Streak) returned $20.60. Puype also starts TYPHOON HARRY, gelded since raced, adding blinkers and dropping from maiden special-weight.