ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, WATERSHED

FIRST RACE

HEART IN HAND dropping for his 4yo debut, which isn’t necessarily a great sign, but he may be a bit more trustworthy than the other main contenders in this field, who have had their chances already, and are exiting some poor performances; was a nonfactor in his main track debut last time, but he was facing much better horses that day over a sloppy track, and he just couldn’t cope with a fast pace in that race. BARTLEBY was no threat after a good trip at this level last time and didn’t love seeing him get out-finished for 2nd by the longest shot on the board, but that was a wet track that he didn’t have to love; last three starts over fast dirt have resulted in Beyers of 72-75-76 (he was declared a non-starter after beating the gate in that maiden race last February). FULL OF MINE ran pretty well over this distance three starts back in a race that featured a strong pace over a track that was favoring speed; has some back races that suggest he can make some noise at a price. PRETENTIOUS and DANEBURY can win if somehow getting back in form, but their recent races have not been good.

SECOND RACE

BEYOND THE GREEN has some hang in him, and he is in the position of having to prove that he can still run after tri of starts since returning from a layoff where he did not finish strong, but he is finally getting some overdue class relief, and he projects to have some pace to close into this time; back races are plenty good enough. CHEYENNE BULL worked a nice trip while staying with a strong rail all the way when back to dirt last time, but he didn’t do much with it while getting out-finished for 2nd/3rd by outside runners; logical as one of the favorites. ACOUSTIC a bit of a plodder, but he’s consistent and can take advantage if the pace develops as expected. JAVELIN disappointed at a short price when dropped in class off the layoff, but he rebounded off that claim to dominate a weaker field sprinting; has to get the mile, but he was running races last year that would give him a chance.

THIRD RACE

BLUEGRASS PREVAILS can’t always be counted on to show up with his good race, but he has been tough when he does while facing better than this; good effort to score while away from a strong rail at this level two starts back, and he ran another good one last time off the claim for Rudy. CAUSE FOR SURPRISE has not run well in his two starts for these connections while facing better; drops with plenty of races to get to that would make him hard to handle in this spot. POWER NAP finally caught some pace to run at last time, and he did not disappoint after a perfect trip; rare claim for this trainer.

FOURTH RACE

Thought RANSOM NOTE ran pretty well when returned from the layoff vs. better in December and was disappointed that he didn’t back that race up at all in his next start, though he was chasing wide there on a day when it was beneficial to be inside; just missed at this level last time after contesting a solid pace with a heavy favorite. HAMPTONS HOLIDAY’s form fell apart last year after showing some early promise; can have a chance to do better here after chasing a frontrunning winner over a wet track in his first start back from a long layoff. ADIRONDACK DREAM was also forced to chase that front-running winner last time, before settling for second-best; had to come around the outside over a track that was favoring the inside two starts back, but he appeared to hang in that race, not for the first time in his career. Suppose ALUM can do better here in his second start following a long layoff, but he did not run well last time.

FIFTH RACE

PROLETARIAT returned from a long layoff to run very well two starts back, and he improved to win

last time under some confident handling from Carmouche; fits well stepping back up for trainer who is quietly having a solid meet. FORMAL START rallied into a contested along a strong rail to earn a new top figure two starts back, but he had also run some good races prior to that, mostly at big prices, and he has caught a pair of wet tracks in his last two starts; needs his best, but this is not a strong 1x field. ETHAN HUNT was in improved form for his excellent trainer prior to taking a break at the end of last year; starts back in a good spot from a nice draw, and he has the speed to establish himself in a good trip in this race. H MAN a contender trying for a 14th time to break through this NY-bred 1x condition; would like to see them get aggressive from the inside post. DISCREET MISSION something of a standout if you believe that last figure, which was earned over two years ago; tough to like too much making his first start since as a new gelding. SIXTH RACE

SPEKE appeared to really need that sprint debut where he was racing on late after getting outrun early, and he improved quite a bit last time despite getting closed down by a solid horse in Danny California; supposed to be tough here. CROSSWAYS wound up going off favored in his career debut and he ran well that day after rushing up after the leaders early while away from the better inside paths, and then keeping on gamely in the stretch; stretches out with speed. GOLD CROSS will have to be close to fit to get the mile first time out but he has some pedigree to work with for a trainer who can win first out, especially with older horses; appears to be training well into this.

SEVENTH RACE

Have been waiting for WATERSHED to turn back in distance for a couple of years already, so feel obligated to stick with him as he finally gets to go shorter around one-turn in the Stymie; perhaps it comes too late for once-promising horse but he fits well here with his good race, and have never liked him going longer. VULCAN’S FORGE a deep closer who is reliant on pace, which he certainly got last time in the Toboggan, though that sprint distance may have been a bit short for him; strong effort two back to close down a solid group with a new top figure. SECURITIZ also defeated a solid group last time, while just staying on better to the finish after getting out-paced a bit through the upper-stretch; appears to be better in these oneturn routes despite spending most of his career going longer. HARLAN PUNCH back quickly after career-best effort dominating allowance rivals over this track and trip six days ago; has run nothing but good races since claimed by Jacobson last summer. HIT IT ONCE MORE pulled off an upset in NY-bred stakes last time, where he was finally able to make the lead, which is clearly the key to his success; should be sending once again, but this is tougher.

EIGHTH RACE

DIVINE MISS GREY exits strong winning effort in the Interborough, where she put away a pace rival and just kept going in the stretch while posting third consecutive Beyer in the mid-to-upper 90’s; doesn’t need the lead to be effective, but should be going from the rail. HIGHWAY STAR clearly the horse to beat here based on overall accomplishment, even if her last two starts have not been close to her best; trips out more often than not, and she wants to beat you when she gets a look in the stretch. HOLIDAY DISGUISE appeared to be heading for races like this last year before having her campaign cut short by ankle issues; didn’t change leads in the stretch while dominating weaker over this distance in her first race back, but she looked ready to go and that was a good place to start for talented filly who still has some upside.

NINTH RACE

SKYLER’S SCRAMJET taking on first real test at the right time after winning three of his four starts since returning to Michelle Nevin’s barn, including 102 Beyer score two starts back; figure regressed last time in the mud, but he actually did some good things there after rating the break to navigate some early traffic, and then finishing gamely to close down a loose rival who has been known to pull off an upset or two when able to get things his own way on the lead, as he did there. DO SHARE six for eight on dirt since claimed by Linda Rice early last year, and he has come right back to form following a layoff last summer; closed down that same front-running rival in his first start back before stepping up to take a stakes race in his next start. CLASSY CLASS will need his very best effort and the right trip in order to defeat a field like this, but much prefer him sprinting, and he has held his own with several of these horses throughout his career. THREEFIVEINDIA clearly a major contender, though he has mostly been a disappointment as an older horse, and excuses aren’t easy to come by for his losses. GREAT STUFF keeps going for Jacobson and is another prime contender in strong running of the Tom Fool; took advantage of a perfect setup to become a graded stakes winner last time.

TENTH RACE

FIRENZE FIRE is going appreciate turning back to a one-turn mile in the Gotham after doing his best but failing to find the late push he needed in the ninefurlong Withers last time; Grade 1 winner as a 2yo won his seasonal debut over the one-turn mile in effort that is better than it may appear while closing down a slow pace after a wide trip. Somewhat surprised to find FREE DROP BILLY cutting back to a shorter route after solid effort of his own behind the dominant Audible in the Holy Bull, but he is clearly a major contender in this race; has the dead rail excuse for the Breeders’ Cup, but his big win last year came vs. a weak field in a race where one of his main rivals went wrong after taking the race over on the turn. DIAL OPERATOR has much working against him as he stretches out beyond 5.5 furlongs for the first time in a strong field, but he has been impressive in his first two starts, and there is pace in this race to set up his late run. ENTICED the other main contender looking to rebound from a somewhat dull effort as the favorite in the Holy Bull; better than that, but not without something to prove still.